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Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:15 pm to 50_Tiger
Or that’s just from 185 mph sustained winds and gusts of 220 plus.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:16 pm to Duke
We watch these storms on maps but realize they are a real physical thing. Being a real, physical thing, our minds want them to be subject to the law of inertia.
If it is 150 miles wide and travelling 8 mph, it should take it a while to stop, even if no propulsive force is applied. Unfortunately, that is not how any of this works. It just seems like it should.
If it is 150 miles wide and travelling 8 mph, it should take it a while to stop, even if no propulsive force is applied. Unfortunately, that is not how any of this works. It just seems like it should.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:18 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
So basically 4x stronger than a solid Cat 1
Cat 1 x 4 = Cat 4?
Checks out
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:18 pm to Duke
quote:
synoptic features
That was the name of my cover band in college.
Bob Breck and the Synoptic Features
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:19 pm to slackster
quote:
If you're on the east coast of Florida, stay vigilant. Nothing more, nothing less.
It's a college message board filled with very dramatic posters. Each little perceived wobble is going to spell doom and gloom and be sensationalized to no end. 
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:20 pm to Hangit
quote:
Being a real, physical thing, our minds want them to be subject to the law of inertia.
They are.
quote:
If it is 150 miles wide and travelling 8 mph, it should take it a while to stop, even if no propulsive force is applied. Unfortunately, that is not how any of this works. It just seems like it should.
The part people don't connect is the power from the synoptic (like our W Atl ridge) steering. That outside force is a lot stronger than people realize.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:20 pm to slackster
Sir. They absolutely did say Gilbert created its own environment. Maybe they were wrong idk but that exact verbage was spoken, on TWC no less. I am not a meteorologist but did work in weather in the military so have some knowledge/background. That storm was so big it spanned nearly the entire Caribbean north to south. Their reasoning was its sheer size and power allowed it to "create its own environment" and the steering winds had zero effect. Thus the anticipated move into the central gulf never occurred.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:21 pm to Tarps99
quote:
Yes, there are many factors that determine where a storm is going. But the system has its own variables. So it is not that crazy that it will go where it wants.
Last night, I even heard Bryan Norcross of Andrew fame talking about Dorian eroding the high in order to make the turn. Wouldn’t that constitute my theory of storms impacting their own paths.
It is part of the same reason why you have look at previous storms and patterns to give you guidance.
Dorian wants to go north. If he has any influence at all, it is to go north.
Why do you think he's about to traverse ~100 miles in 48 hours? If he had control or momentum, surely he'd just plow into Florida, no? Why does he slow down to a crawl?
The answer is that, once again, storms are controlled by their environment. Two years ago we watched Irma, a similarly strong storm with even more forward speed come to a stop, turn north north west, and move on. Why do we do this same song and dance with every Florida hurricane?
You know what Jacksonville's cumulative chance for hurricane force winds is over the next 50 days?
6%. But sure, let's keep discussing gut feelings and misunderstood Gilbert forecasts.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:26 pm to slackster
Why is it showing max gust winds of only 70-90mph over Marsh Harbor the next 24 hours?
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:29 pm to slackster
quote:
Nah, you're just in here taking wishcasting from Storm2k and Wunderground and posting it here. Those sites suck. Stay off of them. Duke and rds won't say it, but I will.
I caught up on 15 pages of the thread since this morning and it's a bunch of unnecessary Florida hype. This storm will be within 100 or so miles of its current spot in the next 48 hours. It's about to slow to a crawl. Watching wobbles is useless. Stop the Florida hype until something changes. If you're on the east coast of Florida, stay vigilant. Nothing more, nothing less.
Im not wishcasting shite yah fricking dick.
Do you really think I wanna see videos of Abaco currently for Miami or FLL or any other place along the East Coast?
Can we not have a fricking discussion on shite we see without you fricks clutching your pearls?
Why is it I can ask Duke questions and he gives an informative response and you cant?
I mean you admitted yourself you literally copypasta from 2k and other met sites.
So again chill the frick out.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:32 pm to Topisawtiger
quote:
Their reasoning was its sheer size and power allowed it to "create its own environment" and the steering winds had zero effect.
They're wrong. That's not how it works.
You can read the entire report on Gilbert here, courtesy of the NHC.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:32 pm to jlc05
quote:
Is there a Christmas Tree in that room?
Fell through ceiling from attic or in from outside storage?
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:33 pm to LSUGrrrl
Or just lazy 
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:36 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
Fell through ceiling from attic or in from outside storage?
Fully decorated?
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:36 pm to UFownstSECsince1950
quote:
Or just lazy
Well, they’d just have to get it out again in 90 days now anyway
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:37 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
Can we not have a fricking discussion on shite we see without you fricks clutching your pearls?
You see WSW, the NHC sees 270 degrees.
quote:
I mean you admitted yourself you literally copypasta from 2k and other met sites.
I don't touch 2k. I post gifs and images of models and satellites. I don't post my own opinions, I just help interpret the ones from the NHC.
quote:
Why is it I can ask Duke questions and he gives an informative response and you cant?
What question do you want answered?
quote:
Perfect map to judge direction.
Show me the northerly component in Dorian.
He needs one soon if hes gonna miss FL.
^just so we're clear, this isn't a question. This is pure conjecture and completely wrong.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:37 pm to Cosmo
quote:
On that map I see 2 nothingburgers and a nothingburger with cheese
fricking nailed it!
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:37 pm to UFownstSECsince1950
quote:
Why is it showing max gust winds of only 70-90mph over Marsh Harbor the next 24 hours?
Where?
Posted on 9/1/19 at 1:38 pm to Python
Hell, I’d leave mine fully decorated if I could.
Responses on twitter saying they thought it was a Christmas tree. Did it turn out to be anything else?
Responses on twitter saying they thought it was a Christmas tree. Did it turn out to be anything else?
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