re: How is Vegas so good at predicting the lines on games?

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I know it's formula's and stats. But do you think they have an inside to all these big games and honestly think they might rig a game.

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thats not even how this shite works

its based off the bets they are getting. get a ton on 1 team and the line moves. Vegas wants nothing more than for every single game to be 50% on one team, 50% on another and it end in a tie.

the lack of understanding on how lines work is laughable to me.

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hats not even how this shite works its based off the bets they are getting. get a ton on 1 team and the line moves. Vegas wants nothing more than for every single game to be 50% on one team, 50% on another and it end in a tie. the lack of understanding on how lines work is laughable to me.

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They still have to establish an initial line which uses a predictive algorithm. The movement in the line is based on received bets to get to 50% to 50%

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On average you pay -110 when you lose, get paid 100 when you win. To break even you have to win 52.4% of your bets. Sounds small, but adds up.

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Vig is not the juice. Vig is the interest you pay a loan shark. -110 is the juice when placing a bet.

You literally can major in actuaries at most universities. You either work for the insurance underwriters or you work for Vegas underwriters.

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Vig is not the juice. Vig is the interest you pay a loan shark. -110 is the juice when placing a bet.

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While you're technically correct, they are pretty much used interchangeably.

They miss a ton as well. Look at TCU. You just don't notice the ones where they are off by 7 and more.

They aren’t early in the season, my dad used to say every good gambler would win big for the first 3-4 weeks of the season then spend the rest of the season giving the money back

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They win no matter what because of the juice.

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I worked across the counter many years ago. This isn’t exactly true but yeah they aren’t building big fancy casinos from being stupid. The house on many occasions has liability on a lot of these games. We would sweat a lot of games out too from time to time just like the gamblers. When the house gets stung it’s usually a large financial beating particularly when Joe Public and the Pros align on the same game and win. But over the course of the year they win. Caesar’s took a beating in the 4th quarter of 2022.

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I never take points, only the money line.

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Napoleon, you don’t ever get down on big favorites to blow teams out or underdogs that you don’t think will win but cover? I’m assuming you mean when a line is basically a plus or minus 2-3 points you just bet it on the ML because oddsmakers are basically saying this could be a coin toss.

The OP is talking about SETTING THE LINE! Line movement is based on bets taken, and yes, Vegas ALWAYS wants a 50/50 split! They literally cannot lose that way.

I've been sports gambling for more years than I like to admit, and it never ceases to amaze me how many bets I've lost and won by 1/2 point. Vegas bookmakers do get it wrong from time to time, but they wouldn't be around as long if that were common.