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re: How imminent is a housing crisis in this country?
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:27 pm to jmarto1
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:27 pm to jmarto1
quote:
The house didn't get more expensive. The money did
Housing has definitely gotten more expensive.
My landlord bought the house I live in for $115,000 in 2019. Same exact house 5 doors down just sold for $205,000. Same condition.
This is Baton Rouge. Good neighborhood, but homes are older and smaller.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:34 pm to TheGhostOfBigLee
Trying to maintain enough liquidity to buy more RE if it tanks. The good thing about financing at low rates, w big down payments, and 15 year fixed loans (and/or paying things off early) is you can actually dollar-cost average RE during the relatively rare dips. I thought my 6% rate on a house was too high so I paid it off in 2021 rather than refi. Probably not the right math/move on paper, but there’s something to the Dave Ramsey psychology thing.
In short, while I don’t want a housing crash, I’ll try my best to treat it like a bad bear stock market and buy.
In short, while I don’t want a housing crash, I’ll try my best to treat it like a bad bear stock market and buy.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:42 pm to TheGhostOfBigLee
I think we’re due for another 2008 crisis and selfishly hope it happens for my own positions soon, not if.
I refuse to put money back into the S&P500 when a few “AI” focused companies hold it together, has become the S&P10. As someone who trains AI models for a living, it’s hilarious seeing all the AI bros pump money into it without a clue.
I also refuse to buy a house (younger than yuns) when I’m not settled on a location, let alone one where I pay for something that overvalued in the history of real estate. A house, especially a drastically overvalued one, is the number one thing that could hold you back from moving to another market for a better opportunity, especially when remote jobs are going away.
I refuse to put money back into the S&P500 when a few “AI” focused companies hold it together, has become the S&P10. As someone who trains AI models for a living, it’s hilarious seeing all the AI bros pump money into it without a clue.
I also refuse to buy a house (younger than yuns) when I’m not settled on a location, let alone one where I pay for something that overvalued in the history of real estate. A house, especially a drastically overvalued one, is the number one thing that could hold you back from moving to another market for a better opportunity, especially when remote jobs are going away.
This post was edited on 10/20/26 at 8:50 pm
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:03 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
Was home ownership more expensive in 1980 with astronomical interest rates than it is now? Some say no.
About the same. $82,000 in 1980 compounded by inflation 46 years later is $320,000. According to Zillow and Redfin those same houses are worth $245,000-260,000 today.
Similar sized house new construction with much nicer amenities in St George is $325,000.
The main difference is house in 1980 was bought with an interest rate of around 18% compared to 8% today. Median household income in 1980 adjusted for inflation is about the same as median household income today.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:08 pm to TheGhostOfBigLee
Location, location, location.
In some areas it isn’t selling well. Subdivision near Capitol Hill in Prattville opened I’m guessing about a 100 lot or so expansion less than a year ago. They’ve had 8-10 under construction at any given time since, and I’d guess they’ve sold around 30-35 3-400k homes in it.
Pike Road is a very busy RE market. Significant parts of Montgomery though, can’t move anything.
In some areas it isn’t selling well. Subdivision near Capitol Hill in Prattville opened I’m guessing about a 100 lot or so expansion less than a year ago. They’ve had 8-10 under construction at any given time since, and I’d guess they’ve sold around 30-35 3-400k homes in it.
Pike Road is a very busy RE market. Significant parts of Montgomery though, can’t move anything.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:12 pm to VooDude
quote:
I think we’re due for another 2008 crisis and selfishly hope it happens for my own positions soon, not if.
The crisis was 10% unemployment.
And even higher unemployment from real estate services (22%).
People with 800 credit scores don't foreclose on their homes because of inflation.
If that is what you are hoping for, then you are a sadist.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:13 pm to Buryl
quote:
My landlord bought the house I live in for $115,000 in 2019. Same exact house 5 doors down just sold for $205,000. Same condition.
Then he got an incredible deal. Median sale price of home in BR in 2019 was $200K today its $250K which means housing prices in BR (at least the ones that sold) have not kept up with inflation.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:16 pm to armytiger96
And I guarantee you the average house today is far nicer than the one you bought in 80.
That said, something seems to be going on with the youngins and housing beyond just whineyness.
That said, something seems to be going on with the youngins and housing beyond just whineyness.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:16 pm to meansonny
quote:
People with 800 credit scores don't foreclose on their homes because of inflation.
Many of foreclosed because they had no integrity. Once they were upside down in the house they made the "business decision" to no longer make payments and give the house back to the bank even though they could still afford their notes.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:19 pm to VooDude
quote:
I refuse to put money back into the S&P500
quote:
I also refuse to buy a house
then I guess Pokémon is more your speed.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:20 pm to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
The boomers
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:21 pm to TheGhostOfBigLee
Far from a crisis.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:22 pm to Oilfieldbiology
Your argument only makes sense if wages stayed the same
But that Boomer bought that $50,000 house at 14% while making $4- $5 per hour
But that Boomer bought that $50,000 house at 14% while making $4- $5 per hour
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:27 pm to jmarto1
quote:
It is already here
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:28 pm to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
On houses that were 2/3 the size and 1/8 the value of what they are now.
Oh cry me a river. My first job out of college I made 18,000 a year, didn’t get a week off until after a year, had two kids, and now you count get six weeks man vacation for baby births and four weeks vacation out the gate and 100,000 to start.
I could care a rats arse less about your bullshite boy. Baby boy. Bitch
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:30 pm to TheGhostOfBigLee
First thing - real estate home tax freeze or reduction for senior citizens is a nightmare for the younger crowd - there is a natural flow of ownership and showing preference to an aging population as to real estate taxes is good for no one.
Most Americans age 45 and older grew up in 2,400 HSF or much less - today’s young homebuyer want the McMansion with all the bells and whistles - that allows decay instead of rehab to creep into older neighborhoods.
Younger buyers must adjust to normalized interest rates - today’s rates are not high - today’s rates are at historical norms…..we have been blessed / cursed with low rates for nearly 2 decades.
Finally - mortgage lenders are likely going to have to offer substantial discounts to low rate borrowers to exit mortgages early to get the real estate pipeline moving. The lenders can collect new feee and better margin going forward if they churn the COVID period rates.
Most Americans age 45 and older grew up in 2,400 HSF or much less - today’s young homebuyer want the McMansion with all the bells and whistles - that allows decay instead of rehab to creep into older neighborhoods.
Younger buyers must adjust to normalized interest rates - today’s rates are not high - today’s rates are at historical norms…..we have been blessed / cursed with low rates for nearly 2 decades.
Finally - mortgage lenders are likely going to have to offer substantial discounts to low rate borrowers to exit mortgages early to get the real estate pipeline moving. The lenders can collect new feee and better margin going forward if they churn the COVID period rates.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:31 pm to TheGhostOfBigLee
People still live in the Covid fantasy land when it comes to home prices and the cost of everything associated with it.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:31 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
That said, something seems to be going on with the youngins and housing beyond just whineyness.
In my opinion there has been its a combination of lifestyle expectations and being spoon fed propaganda that past two years to create discontent among the younger generation to sway mid term elections. Eventually, they start to believe it.
Google Trump Young Voters 2024 and your feed will be a bunch of articles published in the past few days about Gen Z turning on Trump.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:33 pm to TheGhostOfBigLee
Trashy builder homes are all over the US, shouldn’t be a problem
Bunch of ugly crappy houses that will come down in price
Bunch of ugly crappy houses that will come down in price
Posted on 10/20/26 at 9:37 pm to VooDude
quote:
I refuse to put money back into the S&P500 when a few “AI” focused companies hold it together
You can choose sector ETFs that limit your AI exposure
That's what I'm doing since my retirement is already sufficiently exposed to growth and AI stocks
But if the AI sector crashes, pretty much everything comes down with it
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