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Posted on 9/25/24 at 5:47 am to ArHog
quote:
This damn thing is gonna wobble west
Won't matter that much in the grand scheme of things. You can see that front/trough barreling down over Louisiana thats gonna pick it up and steer it.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 5:51 am to Lsut81
quote:
Won't matter that much in the grand scheme of things. You can see that front/trough barreling down over Louisiana thats gonna pick it up and steer it.
It would be a massive fail on forecasting if the storm went Honey Badger on the front and kept steering west.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 5:55 am to Tarps99
quote:
It would be a massive fail on forecasting if the storm went Honey Badger
Its pretty damn amazing that modeling/forecasting foresaw this a week ago, before there was anything in that area. As others have said, its gotten exponentially better over the past 10yrs or so.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 5:57 am to Lsut81
quote:
Its pretty damn amazing that modeling/forecasting foresaw this a week ago, before there was anything in that area. As others have said, its gotten exponentially better over the past 10yrs or so.
Not to mention there were some 2 week out forecasts, although some of those mentioned a storm more towards Louisiana, that had a major hurricane in the gulf for these days
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:02 am to East Coast Band
GFS modeling for the first weekend in October is looking spicy 
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:02 am to Lsut81
quote:
Its pretty damn amazing that modeling/forecasting foresaw this a week ago, before there was anything in that area. As others have said, its gotten exponentially better over the past 10yrs or so.
Yeah, but if it makes landfall 20 miles east, or west, of where they said a week ago then Chad504bitch will throw a fit and claim a massive failure by those people.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:07 am to East Coast Band
quote:
Not to mention there were some 2 week out forecasts, although some of those mentioned a storm more towards Louisiana, that had a major hurricane in the gulf for these days
The lift models picked this and the next likely storm up almost a month ago and stuck with it as being likely issues for the longitudinal range were looking at now.
As AI really gets going on this stuff life is about to change dramatically IMO.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:07 am to haikarate
Lets just get through Helene for Florida and the Southeast then we will take a look at that late this weekend.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:09 am to Lsut81
quote:
Its pretty damn amazing that modeling/forecasting foresaw this a week ago, before there was anything in that area. As others have said, its gotten exponentially better over the past 10yrs or so.
This. People still complain about accuracy and don’t realize how advanced this science has gotten.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:10 am to haikarate
quote:
GFS modeling for the first weekend in October is looking spicy
Thanks for dropping that here without any pics.
Looks like the 00z GFS says we’re getting cat 1 effects. Really hope folks start securing stuff here today.
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 6:11 am
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:11 am to Tarps99
quote:
It would be a massive fail on forecasting if the storm went Honey Badger on the front and kept steering west.
Not saying it’s going to happen with this one, but the big ones have been seen to do what they want. If they get big enough, they make their own steering to an extent.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:14 am to Tarps99
Does anyone know when the East movement is supposed to start happening? If my serves me right, it was going WNW last night, now it is moving NW at the 4am model. Just wondering when we are expected to start seeing NNE or NE movement
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:17 am to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Yeah, but if it makes landfall 20 miles east, or west, of where they said a week ago then Chad504bitch will throw a fit and claim a massive failure by those people.
He’s not a very smart person…at all.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:18 am to BayouENGR
Pics?
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:19 am to rds dc
Looks very healthy this morning. Also looks like it's moving almost due west in the IR loop.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:20 am to udtiger
Forecast calling for 4-8 inches of rain in Metro Atlanta through Friday…RIP basement
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:20 am to BayouENGR
quote:
Looks like the 00z GFS says we’re getting cat 1 effects. Really hope folks start securing stuff here today.
The 30A is going to find out which contractors are the best I’m afraid. Lots of new construction is about to be tested.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:25 am to Wally Sparks
quote:
Forecast calling for 4-8 inches of rain in Metro Atlanta through Friday…RIP basement
Should be getting about half that in Birmingham but that reminded me I need to make sure to clean out my driveway trench drain. We live halfway up a big hill and our driveway angles down towards the garage.
Goodluck Florida folks.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:30 am to udtiger
Satellites at night can be tricky. The radar gif that Roll tide Ravens posted on previous page seems to me it's moving north north west. Need recon to confirm they are in there now. Which if it is would be bad news because it would miss making landfall in the Yucatan
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