re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

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No. He was told Craig James was his uncle but that was only because he was too young to understand mother was James’ side piece after he left SMU.

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Thats a hell of a post from someone with only 18 posts.

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Bruce Katz was right about Francine and he had far fewer resources than the NHC.

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Katz uses IBM's GRAF model and weather forecasting service. IBM also owns the Weather Channel.



Someone I know at IBM's Austin Research Center looked into for me and says it began as part of IBM's business strategy to expand into the software as a service paradigm.

It runs on Power 9 CPUs using Nvidia GPUs and in IBM's world, is two hardware revs back from current computational ability. I think it runs under Watson.

IBM GRAF

Bruce was generally correct with GRAF but not perfect. Did he "beat" the NHC on this one? Perhaps. Can he do that consistently every time? Not likely at all.

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I want them to acknowledge that a lot of what they do is guesswork. But they won't because it would raise uncomfortable questions about whether we're getting our money's worth from their budget.

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During my engineering career have worked with scientists at Woods Hole, Scripps, NOAA, Naval Research Lab, NAVO, and university academics.

Give me a 5 km x 5 km Earth global grid, met instrumented observational network, and the computational horsepower to run it in real-time, and forecasts will improve. You can start with the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

The Space Shuttle was built by the low bidder. Is the NHC underfunded? I can almost guarantee it.

Nonetheless, they do a remarkable and skillful job and I am grateful for their work.

Friend,

This blasphemy of our greatest of all New Orleans meteorologists, Nash Roberts, is shocking coming from you.

Mother will be sorely disappointed in your behavior when she hears.

Please seek forgiveness this upcoming Sunday.

Trusting you see the error of your ways,
Breeze

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Thats a hell of a post from someone with only 18 posts.

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That's why is the Lord of Bees and not just a worker bee.

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I told you NOT to look at the gfs from 2 weeks away.

Now your really done it buddy.

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I already knew about it and was surprised no one posted it yet

Cold fronts incoming, so I'm not too worried at this point.

Just wanted to take a second and wish all our posters in Florida the best. Hopefully this thing isn’t as bad as they think it will be, and we can all have a laugh and a cocktail after this is over

Stay safe y’all

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I want them to acknowledge that a lot of what they do is guesswork.

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They literally publish a cone that acknowledges that and quantifies how well their “guessworks” have done in the past.

The fact that you aren’t able to synthesize the information they give you into “actionable intelligence” betrays your actual intelligence.

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Just wanted to take a second and wish all our posters in Florida the best.

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Thanks - wish people here were taking it seriously and realizing this projected to be a large storm and the cone can still shift. Lots of STR homes around us in Seagrove are doing nothing to secure porch furniture, trash cans, etc. They’re not here and their property managers aren’t getting it done. Before Michael, we were going around our neighborhood doing it for them, but there are less full time residents here now to pitch in. Not a fan of flying debris lol

seems like a number of models are showing that cold front shearing up the system in the gulf