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Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:23 pm to Yearnt 22
quote:
What’s the outlook for the Orlando area?
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:25 pm to loogaroo
quote:
so it is imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in the future.
Two fricking days?
Let's extrapolate this to if Francine had been a Cat 5. Was the NHC planning to tell everybody from Lake Charles to New Orleans to evacuate because they couldn't pin it down any better?
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:27 pm to Jim Rockford
different situation honestly
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:29 pm to Thracken13
quote:
different situation honestly
Not really
The center of Francine still hadnt really formed 2-3 days out. Similar situation
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:29 pm to Jim Rockford
This storm is quickly organizing I'm impressed that they're able to predict what they are able to right now
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:36 pm to East Coast Band
HAFS suite came in weaker but it's because it gets the center over the Yucatan for a good 18 hours.
The HWRF and HMON did not and are coming in quite a bit deeper as a result.
The HWRF and HMON did not and are coming in quite a bit deeper as a result.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:39 pm to slackster
To the untrained eye that is fricking awesome and awful at the same time.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:42 pm to Cosmo
yes it is - with the outside influences and location of where it is, it is a completely different situation.
Francine's situation was predicated on the influence of stuff that did not materialize until later than expected.
with Helene you are already seeing the influence of the High to the east.
look im not an expert - but the discussions of both storms has been pretty different in terms of predictions.
Francine's situation was predicated on the influence of stuff that did not materialize until later than expected.
with Helene you are already seeing the influence of the High to the east.
look im not an expert - but the discussions of both storms has been pretty different in terms of predictions.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:47 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Let's extrapolate this to if Francine had been a Cat 5. Was the NHC planning to tell everybody from Lake Charles to New Orleans to evacuate because they couldn't pin it down any better?
What do you want them to do, lie?
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:47 pm to rds dc
This thing keeps shifting west
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:50 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Giving themselves wiggle room for their big miss
Saying shifting the entire guidance suite caught my attention.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:55 pm to loogaroo
TS-level winds in Atlanta is going to probably snap a ton of our dry trees. 
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:55 pm to LoneStar23
quote:
This thing keeps shifting west
Do you understand cardinal directions?
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:57 pm to rds dc
Posted on 9/24/24 at 1:05 pm to NorthEndZone
woof......when that convection finally wraps in - hold the frick on.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 1:06 pm to slackster
quote:
What do you want them to do, lie?
I want them to acknowledge that a lot of what they do is guesswork. But they won't because it would raise uncomfortable questions about whether we're getting our money's worth from their budget.
They can write a five paragraph update full of jargon and data, but if they can't tell me two days in advance whether a storm is coming straight at me or 150 miles to my east, that is not actionable intelligence.
Bruce Katz was right about Francine and he had far fewer resources than the NHC.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 1:07 pm to Wally Sparks
quote:
TS-level winds in Atlanta is going to probably snap a ton of our dry trees
Obviously Opal did it, but we've mostly avoided these scenarios. Zeta tore up our area pretty well in Buckhead/Sandy Springs and I think those gusts topped out at alike 50ish.
Trees giveth and they taketh away
Posted on 9/24/24 at 1:08 pm to Jim Rockford
Posted on 9/24/24 at 1:10 pm to LegendInMyMind
What day did that last storm hit? A week ago?
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