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Started By
Message
re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:30 am to ApisMellifera
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:30 am to ApisMellifera
quote:
2021
That was part of the Laura/Delta/Freeze/Flood run for the LC area.
Brutal
1
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:43 am to Statestreet
12z GFS with a major landfall just north of Tampa on the 28th.
If nothing else, it is fun to watch what the models do with such an incredibly large storm like this.
If nothing else, it is fun to watch what the models do with such an incredibly large storm like this.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:46 am to ApisMellifera
18Z will probably be a tropical depression that hits south of Brownsville at this rate.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:46 am to Will Cover
quote:
Time will tell if this becomes a threat or not.
Reads like something written by someone in the government.
If I were doing a book report that text wall would be condensed down to “There is a major storm threat developing but we don’t know for sure if it will develop or where it will go.”
The end.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:50 am to ApisMellifera
quote:
If nothing else, it is fun to watch what the models do with such an incredibly large storm like this.
That's pretty much all it is good for at this point. That, and just watching overall synoptics. GFS is all over the place with everything, location and timing being the two big ones. It has two days difference in landfall between the last two runs. There's no handle at all on it.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:53 am to Tiger Ryno
Don't panic... what's what, is what... It's going where it's going to go, and nobody has any say in that
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:56 am to tarzana
quote:
Don't panic... what's what, is what... It's going where it's going to go, and nobody has any say in that
"This has been: Deep Thoughts with tarzana"
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:56 am to tketaco
You don't know that
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:16 pm to rds dc
The GFS is going to continue to move this thing around on every run, at least until the system starts forming, but just for fun here is the latest GFS taking a Cat. 4 right into Tampa Bay.
This post was edited on 9/19/24 at 12:17 pm
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:20 pm to tarzana
quote:
tarzana
We missed you last thread
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:25 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
"This has been: Deep Throats with tarzana"
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:29 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
If nothing else, it is fun to watch what the models do with such an incredibly large storm like this.
That's pretty much all it is good for at this point.
But it still caused bad dreams and mental planning while I was sleeping last night. Like down to thinking if my best route to get to one of my kids houses for evacuation options lol.
SMH.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:29 pm to Mr Roboto
Domo arigato, Mr Roboto, domo.. domo.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:38 pm to tiger91
quote:
But it still caused bad dreams and mental planning while I was sleeping last night.
You should take a break from the internet for a day or 2 then
I'll check back in on it Sunday. Even then, it would still be a week out.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:39 pm to Mr Roboto
quote:
We missed you last thread
Speak for yourself, arse. Tarzana gargles horse fluids with Tim Walz.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:50 pm to VernonPLSUfan
quote:
Gonna hang on to my generator from Lowe's that's still in the box another week, I guess
Trash. Nothing less than expected from my VP brethren.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 1:15 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
the latest GFS taking a Cat. 4 right into Tampa Bay.
Cat 4? Where did that come from? I thought that its predicted to barely even be a Cat 1 at the strongest?
Posted on 9/19/24 at 1:15 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Tampa seems to somehow always get spared but storm surge alone from that model would fricking wreck Tampa.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 1:22 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
The GFS is going to continue to move this thing around on every run, at least until the system starts forming, but just for fun here is the latest GFS taking a Cat. 4 right into Tampa Bay.
Every six hours it appears the GFS had a new solution. A new target.
Isn’t it obvious that in the long term the GFS or any of the other models aren’t to be given much credence as to where a stiff ref m might go or how strong it might get?
It is September. The waters are warm. The overall pattern indicates a tropical storm is likely to form in the western Caribbean Sea. There is nothing to do right now really, but wait.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 1:28 pm to doubleb
they can throw out every potential scenario and then early next week delete all the wrong models and pick the one closest to landfall to say we predicted it
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