re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

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Swing by and pick ryno up on your way out. He's a stubborn mule, so don't take no for an answer.

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You can probably find his dumb arse on the range hitting balls right now.

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is amazing how challenging it has been, and seemingly remains, to get a good handle on this thing's movement

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No dominant steering pattern will do that to a forecast.

I think conroe had some kind of evac order no?

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u can probably find his dumb arse on the range hitting balls right now.

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Nah, he is taken this opportunity to go underground and get lunhow

The lake is high from photos I was sent. But still not flooding houses on the south end. Up about 4 feet from yesterday as of this morning.

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pick ryno up on your way out.

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or not.

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seems like LA is getting hit with bricks now,

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Yep been raining since 9pm sat, but really picked up overnight

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Can y'all tell me what the situation is in her area of Richmond?

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Doesn't look good. I saw on the news that a lot of house took in water

LINK

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EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 7.3UM WV CHANNEL SHOWS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED DRY CONVEYOR BELT PRESSING ACROSS THE THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THIS HAS PRESSED THE MATURE WARM CONVEYOR FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL LA COAST ATTM AND IN DOING SO MAINTAINS SOLID MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT SUFFICIENTLY TO MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION WITH RECENT OVERSHOOTING TOPS BREAKING THROUGH THE CIRRUS CANOPY JUST OFF THE COAST OF MARSH ISLAND. HOWEVER...BROADENING OF THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE FIELDS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY DECREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ASHORE WITH TIME BUT ALSO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE EFFECTIVE TROF/BOUNDARY

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This is basically saying South Central La has flash flood threat ongoing as the main focus of moisture coming off Harvey. At the end there, they're saying the flow will weaken into the afternoon to an extent and the main focus will slowly progress east.

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COASTAL SE LA/MS...GOES-16 .6 & 1.6UM VISIBLE CHANNEL ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A WARM FRONT THAT IS HUGGING THE SE LA COAST EXTENDING ESE TO THE WEAKNESS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. SOUTHERLY ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BOUNDARY (EFFECTIVE COOL CONVEYOR BELT) SUPPORT SUFFICIENT ASCENT/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT TO LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT. 12Z LIX SOUNDING SUGGEST WARM CLOUD PROCESSES ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL FROM THESE CELLS.

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Convection in SELa likely, but more isolated than what's being seen to our west.

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CORRIDOR OR TWO OF TRAINING AND POSE A POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD RISK. WHILE CURRENTLY THIS APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE NOLA METRO AREA...THERE ARE SOME RADAR TRENDS THAT SUGGEST SOME WSW PROPAGATION ON ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AS CLOUD BASES LOWER TOWARD SFC BASED. IF THIS OCCURS...THE THREAT OF TRAINING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE METRO WITH RATES OF 2"/HR LIKELY POSING FF RISK GIVEN COMPROMISED PUMP SITUATION.

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Concern that NOLA may become the focus of some training by the afternoon. Keep an eye on that NOLA people.

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Someone earlier in the thread said something about the dam at Lake Conroe, can any provide some info about that area? I have family that live on the east side of the lake.

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The dam is releasing twice the previous record, ~73k cfs. That is causing issues in the San Jac river, but I haven't heard or seen anything about flooding along the lake itself. Obviously it is up quite a bit though.