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re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

Posted on 9/9/24 at 6:59 am to
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131565 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 6:59 am to
quote:

and I assume 10am central is the next major NWC update right?


It will probably be a TS by 10 am
Posted by Slippery Joe
Member since Nov 2020
24 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:00 am to
quote:

may not be perfect but we don't have time for perfection with how quickly this storm became a threat


yup bud exactly right
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:04 am to
quote:

I bet another shift East is coming before the NHC has it locked down. This morning’s recon is going to interesting.



There is no good reason to shift it east from here unless guidance changes. Just because an east shift brings BR and New Orleans more into play doesn’t mean it will happen.
This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 7:07 am
Posted by Will Cover
Davidson, NC
Member since Mar 2007
40219 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:07 am to
The latest update I just received from my nephew who works for Fox Weather says landfall is around Vermillion Bay and will track directly towards Baton Rouge, likely as a strong CAT 1 storm. Power outages are likely.

This is as of this morning around 7 a.m. CST.

May be helpful, or may not be. You guys get to decide.
Posted by LSURoss
Dragon Believer
Member since Dec 2007
16767 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:08 am to
Wonder what time they will fly/recon into it this morning,.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:09 am to
HH are on their way now
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:09 am to
quote:

It will probably be a TS by 10 am


They’re waiting on a well defined center before they upgrade it. If recon finds one then they’ll pull the trigger.
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5053 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:12 am to
Man I’m flattered that you woke up thinking about me. If you look back at what I’ve said, seems you like doing that, I never said it wasn’t moving east actually said it was possible.
Posted by VCeagle2013
Member since Apr 2013
333 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:13 am to




6z HMON and HWRF have head on collisions with Lafayette.
Posted by fr33manator
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
134636 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:14 am to
This is gonna frick my bachelor party up this weekend isn't it? We were supposed to leave Friday at lunch for Toledo bend


shite
Posted by StrikeIndicator
Sec. 419
Member since May 2019
1046 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:15 am to
St.George shields up
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
115426 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:15 am to
quote:

quote:
It will probably be a TS by 10 am


They’re waiting on a well defined center before they upgrade it. If recon finds one then they’ll pull the trigger.


According to advisories, it already has the necessary sustained winds for it.
Posted by FLBooGoTigs1
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
59271 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:17 am to
well woke up to this new prediction hope for the best for the boot. Godspeed to everyone preparing this week
Posted by iron banks
Destrehan
Member since Jul 2014
4258 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:18 am to
Louisiana is a damn magnet for these things
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:18 am to
quote:

6z HMON and HWRF have head on collisions with Lafayette.


FYI, you can choose the 10m wind option on Tropical Tidbits which is more similar to what we could expect on the ground. Those winds on your images are much higher in the atmosphere.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:19 am to
quote:

This is gonna frick my bachelor party up this weekend isn't it? We were supposed to leave Friday at lunch for Toledo bend


Toledo Bend should be fine.
Posted by Ingeniero
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2013
23016 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:20 am to
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131565 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:20 am to
quote:

FYI, you can choose the 10m wind option on Tropical Tidbits which is more similar to what we could expect on the ground. Those winds on your images are much higher in the atmosphere.


I assume he did that intentionally
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15748 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:20 am to
Posted by bayoudude
Member since Dec 2007
25907 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 7:20 am to
Terrebonne parish damn sure doesn’t need the rain they are saturated with storm water from last week still trying to drain. They will close locks to the south and the heavy rainfall will have nowhere to go. Also Ida pushed water out and all flooding was north of the locks a Morgan city landfall is about a worst case for that area.
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