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Started By
Message
re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:32 pm to TJack
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:32 pm to TJack
PTCs have been a thing for a few years.
It used to be the NHC would wait for a depression to make advisories. As you can see, in this case, that would leave like three days tops before a hurricane is hitting Louisiana.
So they do this, to start advisories earlier
It used to be the NHC would wait for a depression to make advisories. As you can see, in this case, that would leave like three days tops before a hurricane is hitting Louisiana.
So they do this, to start advisories earlier
0
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:36 pm to TrigSwig
quote:
Lake Charles should luck out as they will be on the West side.
Still seems too early to say this with any sort of confidence
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:37 pm to Mr Roboto
quote:
Still seems too early to say this with any sort of confidence
The meteorologist doing the NWS briefing has said about 50 times we will probably see a shift east tonight.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:39 pm to stout
And it could shift back west just as easily
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:40 pm to stout
Between Wade and Donald, we have some pretty good meteorologists in this area. Donald is skeptical about a track, but he knows it ain’t gonna be a cat 1.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:40 pm to Mr Roboto
quote:
And it could shift back west just as easily
He did about a 5 minute explanation on what is steering the storm including the cold front and why that isn't likely
This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 5:41 pm
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:41 pm to BregmansWheelbarrow
How concerned should the Nola baws be right now? Definitely keeping an eye, this will be my first hurricane living in LA so not sure how it would hit here if it hits Lafayette. Just looking for level of prep guidance
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:42 pm to BregmansWheelbarrow
quote:
but he knows it ain’t gonna be a cat 1.
He is downplaying the intensification but he has said it will be a cat 1.
He did seem skeptical it would even reach cat 1, though.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:44 pm to stout
BR baws be ready
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:47 pm to Impotent Waffle
I’m ready. But just discovered a bad fuel line on my genny. It can be worked around if shtf
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:48 pm to stout
Which makes me wonder…seeing as he works for the nws….is he allowed to against the official nws advisory?
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:48 pm to Mr Roboto
quote:
And it could shift back west just as easily
With a front kicking it?
There's a hard edge to the west as to where it'll get
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:52 pm to Duke
quote:
With a front kicking it?
There's a hard edge to the west as to where it'll get
Correct me if I am wrong but the only way it could be much further west is if the center develops in an unexpected area?
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:52 pm to Duke
What time is the next official NWC update? Are they on a fixed schedule?
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:53 pm to Duke
Should i be preparing to pull my camper and toys out of grand isle? What kind of surge we looking at for SELA?
I know it’s early. Just trying to prep a game plan if needed.
I know it’s early. Just trying to prep a game plan if needed.
This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 5:53 pm
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:53 pm to Nguyener
quote:
What time is the next official NWC update? Are they on a fixed schedule?
He just said 10 so the NWS briefing will be at 10:30
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:53 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
BR baws
2024's Gustav Bros
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:53 pm to stout
quote:
He is downplaying the intensification but he has said it will be a cat 1.
He did seem skeptical it would even reach cat 1, though
There is a decent bit of shear, especially at the coast and while the upper levels arent bad, I dont see where a bigly outflow channel could get going. Low shear and an outflow enhancement is what Im looking for to get the rapid intensification.
Models showing a 3, Im paying attention but Im far from sold on that idea.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:56 pm to Uncle JackD
quote:
Should i be preparing to pull my camper and toys out of grand isle? What kind of surge we looking at for SELA?
Its gonna depend on exact landfall position. Im not expecting big impacts in GI, as things stand now, but there will be some surge. Really low lying, go get your shite. Otherwise, plan on it if things shift like Morgan City east.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 5:57 pm to MasterAbe1
quote:
How concerned should the Nola baws be right now
Right now. Grab a case of water and fill up on gas tomorrow.
Look around your yard and make note of anything that can fly away. I wouldn't do any real prep yet. But be watching.
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