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Message
re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:42 am to The First Cut
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:42 am to The First Cut
hurricane hunters and weather stations in the gulf found 100mph winds... 
100mph reported winds are just the strongest winds found, doesn't mean the entire storm has 100mph winds. intensity isn't determined by only land based stations
100mph reported winds are just the strongest winds found, doesn't mean the entire storm has 100mph winds. intensity isn't determined by only land based stations
This post was edited on 9/12/24 at 9:44 am
2
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:43 am to RougeDawg
quote:
NHC had it going through Baton Rouge early yesterday; big difference.
from middle of Baton Rouge to western edge of Lake Mourepas is only like 30 miles.
that is not a big difference at all.
not even half the distance of what is considered to be the margin of error.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:43 am to TH03
And what did all of the coastal weather stations gather? I think 65 is the highest i saw.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:44 am to The First Cut
Looks like HMON and HWFR did the best at landfall.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:45 am to The First Cut
quote:
Francine was nowhere near a Cat 2 storm. Everyone is focused on the track and not the fact that not one weather station on land recorded winds approaching 100 mph. NHC said 100 mph sustained
quote:
Let's pause for a minute to think how or why this would be so inaccurate.
100 mph vs "approaching 100 mph" is inaccurate?
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:45 am to The First Cut
quote:are you retarded?
station on land recorded winds approaching 100 mph. NHC said 100 mph sustained and gusts to 120 mph.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:46 am to TH03
Well folks, this is now a stupid thread as usual because of dick measuring contest, and YouTube/Facebook experts arguing points that they don’t even understand.
Solid work by everyone else, anyone affected I hope you are able to return to normal as soon as possible.
Hopefully we won’t be starting another one soon, until next time
Solid work by everyone else, anyone affected I hope you are able to return to normal as soon as possible.
Hopefully we won’t be starting another one soon, until next time
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:47 am to The First Cut
not sure rn, but I saw higher gusts, not sustained.
the upgrade was made based on hurricane hunters that found 100kt (115mph) flight level winds which extrapolate down to somewhere between 82 and 103.5mph surface winds. the formula is somewhere between 0.8 and 0.9 times the flight level winds. cat 2 is 96-110 mph winds, so they felt that was sufficient.
the upgrade was made based on hurricane hunters that found 100kt (115mph) flight level winds which extrapolate down to somewhere between 82 and 103.5mph surface winds. the formula is somewhere between 0.8 and 0.9 times the flight level winds. cat 2 is 96-110 mph winds, so they felt that was sufficient.
This post was edited on 9/12/24 at 9:49 am
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:47 am to Macintosh
What’s the big hoopla about the landfall? Track was still in between NOLA and BR, and no one was completely spot on. 
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:49 am to TH03
Hurricane hunters calculate wind speeds based on what they find in the upper atmosphere. The speeds up there are not what are reported nor what will be experienced on the surface.
This storm will be recorded in history as a Cat 2, which bolsters the narrative of climate change. But the facts on the ground say this was a tropical storm.
This storm will be recorded in history as a Cat 2, which bolsters the narrative of climate change. But the facts on the ground say this was a tropical storm.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:51 am to The First Cut
quote:
Hurricane hunters calculate wind speeds based on what they find in the upper atmosphere. The speeds up there are not what are reported nor what will be experienced on the surface.
like I said, there's a fairly standard formula for extrapolating the flight level data down to surface level winds.
quote:
This storm will be recorded in history as a Cat 2, which bolsters the narrative of climate change.
it's recorded in history as cat 2 because they found evidence of it. take off the tin foil hat, my dude.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:53 am to Nutriaitch
quote:
from middle of Baton Rouge to western edge of Lake Mourepas is only like 30 miles.
that is not a big difference at all.
not even half the distance of what is considered to be the margin of error.
More like 40 miles. If the margin of error is that big, they need to stop representing the track with a line and just provide a 50-mile wide path.
I understand it isn't a precise science, but the general public doesn't get that impression when you draw a line through their backyard.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:53 am to The First Cut
quote:
Francine was nowhere near a Cat 2 storm. Everyone is focused on the track and not the fact that not one weather station on land recorded winds approaching 100 mph. NHC said 100 mph sustained and gusts to 120 mph. Let's pause for a minute to think how or why this would be so inaccurate. NHC is under NOAA...what narrative have they been pushing?
Yikes
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:53 am to TH03
quote:
no, he just made an MS paint drawing that explains it easily and clearly and I don't feel like looking for it
I think the post you replied to was more correct than you’re implying, though.
Sure, the line is just playing connect the dots. But the dots that make up that line are the actual NHC forecast and the cone is a margin of error.
The whole thing is stupid though. First off, it’s not like the original westward NHC track came out of nowhere. The models and NHC both shifted east, NHC was just a little conservative with their changes. Second, the actual track fell well within NHC’s cone as far back as 1 AM Tuesday. By 10 AM Tuesday the actual track fell maybe halfway between the edge of the cone and the centerline. Third, anyone whose plan is predicated on movement of the line by 20 miles is a fricking idiot anyway. The north shore has been under a tropical storm warning since 7 AM Tuesday. But for some reason we have people on the north shore going “nobody told us!!”
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:56 am to lostinbr
that's all fair, and I agree. especially your last paragraph which I feel is spot on
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:59 am to rds dc
Still no word from AT&T. Usually they send out a message about unlimited data for all in impacted areas and not a peep from Cox either
This post was edited on 9/12/24 at 10:00 am
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:59 am to TH03
quote:
it's recorded in history as cat 2 because they found evidence of it. take off the tin foil hat, my dude
Trust the feds and not every single weather station.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 10:00 am to RougeDawg
quote:
More like 40 miles. If the margin of error is that big, they need to stop representing the track with a line and just provide a 50-mile wide path.
People who understand these things have been advocating for this for years. When people see the "track" line 30-40 miles from them, they think they are in the clear. We underestimate the stupidity of the uniformed public.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 10:00 am to notiger1997
quote:
For the last 24 hours you have been the most useless shite stirring a-hole I’ve ever seen in a weather thread. You’ve got fricking issues. I guess it’s fun for you or something .
NHC shite the bed. I don’t understand why it angers a handful of people. It’s laughable that you have more anger with me than I do w NHC. Never did NHC predict the eye going through near mid st Tammany parish. They were reacting the entire time and never conceded the full east shift.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 10:00 am to deltaland
quote:
They were rolling the cotton out of here yesterday getting what they could out of the fields
Thankfully we quit growing rice and cotton a few years back but the ones I still know ran for like 4 straight days. I'd say I can't imagine how tired they are but sadly I know all too well
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