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re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:35 am to
Posted by tzimme4
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
33312 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:35 am to
quote:

Which just fricks NOLA over correct?

No
Posted by sp22
Member since Jan 2019
779 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:35 am to
West eye wall is still not a good place lol
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50747 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:36 am to
I think NOLA gets slammed even on the NHC forecast track but so many of the high resolution models have been super consistent on this moving into NOLA and giving them a direct hit so I think they get fricked either way.
Posted by Jh22586
Member since Oct 2019
674 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:36 am to
No side is..
This post was edited on 9/11/24 at 6:37 am
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50747 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:37 am to
quote:

West eye wall is still not a good place lol

This! Ida's western eyewall passed over my location and my weather station recorded gusts to over 100mph. I know she was a powerful hurricane so obviously the entire eyewall was going to be intense but I was still shocked by how strong it was.
This post was edited on 9/11/24 at 6:38 am
Posted by GEAUXT
Member since Nov 2007
30515 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:38 am to
On fox 8 this morning their models for wind/rain/etc seemed to all show it going over Nola - Slidell
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50747 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:38 am to
Yea literally all the media has been using that GRAF model because it goes over NOLA and has shown that for about 24 hours now.
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5053 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:41 am to
When the the 3 global models ICON GFS and Euro all agree it’s a Marsh Island/Morgan City landfall. It’s ridiculous how they just don’t use the models that are the most trusted ones.
Posted by Meauxjeaux
102836 posts including my alters
Member since Jun 2005
46911 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:41 am to
quote:

GRAF


Should change it to the GRIFT model.
Posted by Proximo
Member since Aug 2011
24145 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:42 am to

Interactive map from noaa
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50747 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:44 am to
quote:

When the the 3 global models ICON GFS and Euro all agree it’s a Marsh Island/Morgan City landfall. It’s ridiculous how they just don’t use the models that are the most trusted ones.

Yea I don't get it, especially because the NHC is using those as a big part of their decision making process.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:45 am to
quote:

What makes you say that?


Because of how winds tend to interact with land along with how tiny the maximum winds typically are.
Posted by cbr900racer22
City of Central, LA.
Member since Sep 2009
1412 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:46 am to
Just to brighten up the day.



Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50747 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:47 am to
Now this is a titty milk thread.
This post was edited on 9/11/24 at 6:47 am
Posted by Ziggy
Member since Oct 2007
22113 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:49 am to
Posted by Ponchy Tiger
Ponchatoula
Member since Aug 2004
49682 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:50 am to
quote:

What makes me nervous is the memory of Hurricane Michael.


I get this, but Michael was a 1 in 100 storm. Storms historically just don't strengthen that fast and that close to landfall like ever. As far as I know this is the only time this has happened that anyone can remember.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15751 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:50 am to
As the eye passed over Gunnison Spar I don't see any hurricane windspeed before then.

LINK
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
130250 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:51 am to
Uh what. Waking up to a Nola direct hit stronger hurricane??

Should I get out of dodge immediately?
Posted by Saskwatch
Member since Feb 2016
18204 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:51 am to
Francine covered quite a bit of ground overnight. Is projected landfall still later this afternoon?
Posted by tzimme4
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
33312 posts
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:52 am to
No
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