re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

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Where you at? Was just looking on the weather channel forecast, the future part of it looks like it takes the eye east of the track. The eye is on the outer part of the projected path.

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They’ve been showing that model the whole time. Wishcasting it to Nola and trying to get everybody stirred up for clicks.

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Main concerns will be tornado’s

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It was said this storm will have very weak fast moving tornadoes at like 60mph and they would be too quick to track.

Hopefully the end of this new loop is a sign of weakening and wind sheering and not restrengthening

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Yeah. The simulations make it look like it falls apart into a mess quickly after landfall. I wish the damn thing would just get here already

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Yeah

I’m nearing storm watch fatigue status.

I woke early today to continue prep. I’ll be real tired later but won’t be able to sleep because it’s coming in at night for me. Probably up all night tonight.
Apologies in advance for any crankiness

Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

As expected, Francine has strengthened and become better organized
overnight. Radar data and earlier reports from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate the eyewall is better defined, with deep
convection wrapping around the center of the hurricane. The eyewall
has contracted a bit from earlier, although it was open to the south
on the last fix and in more recent GMI passive microwave images.
The microwave data also showed some northeastward vortex tilt with
height, a sign that Francine is experiencing some effects of
southwesterly shear. Based on the earlier peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 89 kt, the initial intensity is set at 80 kt, with a
minimum pressure of 977 mb based on aircraft data. Air Force and
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Francine
again this morning.

The hurricane is moving northeastward at 035/9 kt. A slightly faster
northeastward motion is forecast today and tonight as the hurricane
is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas. This will
bring the core of Francine toward the Louisiana coast today, with
landfall expected within the hurricane warning area late this
afternoon or evening. After landfall, a gradual turn toward the
north will bring the center of Francine across eastern Louisiana and
Mississippi. The track guidance is fairly tightly clustered, and the
latest NHC forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope
and very close to the consensus aids.

The structure of Francine could allow for some additional short-term
strengthening this morning over the very warm Gulf waters, and this
is reflected in the updated NHC forecast. Southwesterly shear is
expected to increase over the hurricane later today, and interaction
with an upper trough should cause drier air to wrap around the
southern portion of Francine as it nears the coast. Thus, the
hurricane is not expected to continue strengthening through
landfall, but will continue to pose a significant risk of
life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds to locations in the
warning areas. Once inland, Francine is expected to rapidly weaken,
quickly lose tropical characteristics, and transition to an
extratropical cyclone over northern Mississippi.


INIT 11/0900Z 27.0N 93.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 28.5N 92.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 30.6N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/1800Z 33.0N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0600Z 34.7N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 13/1800Z 35.3N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

I know the NHC is calling for more strengthening but this makes it look like it's in the beginning stages of losing all that convection to the northeast due to shear.

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It looks like wind shear is starting to work over the system. It probably has only a short period for any additional strengthening.

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sure does, hopefully a ton of dry air gets pumped into this thing.

So how we feeling at 6am day of ?