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Started By
Message
re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:09 am to ell_13
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:09 am to ell_13
quote:
Pressure down to 974
So is she going to intensify then break up before making landfall? Because I think they projected her to make landfall at that pressure.
I sure hope that doesn't mean shes intensifying more/earlier than they thought.
0
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:09 am to slackster
HMON drops intensity from 100 kts and 969.5 mb to 55 kts and 977 mb in only 3 hours. Seems a little quick to weaken it, but that would be good for inland areas if it did do that.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:10 am to lesthemadhatter
quote:
Do we still think it gets torn apart before landfall even with the strengthening tonight?
Despite a bunch of shitposting that may have insinuated otherwise, it was never forecast to get torn apart before landfall. NHC has been calling for strengthening to stop as it gets close, but nothing akin to being torn apart. It will likely lose its structure and strength pretty rapidly after landfall.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:10 am to slackster
Yea it has definitely started to ramp up in the last hour. Hopefully it doesn't cook for too long.
This post was edited on 9/11/24 at 12:11 am
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:11 am to slackster
quote:
They were answered.
You fricked up now, he’s about to come at you even harder
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:14 am to slackster
I see you did. Thanks. There are numerous variations of runs that go into the euro and GFS,, right? All of those with the acronyms we see bunched together? I'm not up on which are most respected.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:20 am to NorthEndZone
Looks like it is in a sweet spot for now where outflow is being helped by trough to its NW. But from what has been said, that should be changing in about 12 hours??
ETA - Recon reported 978 mb and 26.45N 94.21 W with eye open to South
ETA - Recon reported 978 mb and 26.45N 94.21 W with eye open to South
This post was edited on 9/11/24 at 12:26 am
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:21 am to Aspercel
quote:
Those are at least partially my fault.
Did you at least get Slag back?
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:23 am to Jake88
quote:
There are numerous variations of runs that go into the euro and GFS,, right? All of those with the acronyms we see bunched together? I'm not up on which are most respected.
No. The Euro and GFS are their own standalone product. They also have ensembles that are members that run at a lower resolution and mix up the initial analysis slightly to try and give a sample of other possible outcomes. The ensembles are useful for overall forecasting but not as influential as the operational (primary) higher resolution model that is run. All of the other models are designed to model different things at different resolutions, but the GFS and Euro are the big boys for overall steering typically, which is the topic of your question.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:24 am to slackster
When it comes to pressure, are we needing it to come down or go up? That always confuses me.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:25 am to King of New Orleans
the higher the pressure, the better
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:29 am to LegendInMyMind
Yes
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:29 am to lesthemadhatter
quote:
Do we still think it gets torn apart before landfall even with the strengthening tonight?
The current strengthening isn't unexpected. It is a bit later than initially thought, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Being that it took a while to start ramping up likely means that it will not be able to build larger, more robust core. The shear will still be there at/nearing landfall, and that small core would be more susceptible to that shear. The idea is that once it is opened up by that shear it will suck in dry air and deteriorate quickly.
The only caveat to that is the off chance that it overachieves during this strengthening phase and is able to build a more stable core. That isn't really expected, but can't be completely counted out.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:30 am to Aspercel
quote:
Yes
I guess you take the good with the bad.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:33 am to slackster
quote:I'm not clear on that part but thanks for answering my questions. I do appreciate it.
They also have ensembles that are members that run at a lower resolution and mix up the initial analysis slightly to try and give a sample of other possible outcomes
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:39 am to Jake88
quote:
An ensemble weather forecast is a set of forecasts that present the range of future weather possibilities. Multiple simulations are run, each with a slight variation of its initial conditions and with slightly perturbed weather models. These variations represent the inevitable uncertainty in the initial conditions and approximations in the models. They produce a range of possible weather conditions.
LINK
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:41 am to LegendInMyMind
Some wicked little thunderstorms popping up in the outer bands near the upper Texas coast.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:45 am to slackster
Pressure down to 978mb.
00z Euro with the slightest of shifts west back to Atchafalaya River landfall from Point Au Fer
00z Euro with the slightest of shifts west back to Atchafalaya River landfall from Point Au Fer
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:46 am to slackster
1:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 11
Location: 26.6°N 94.1°W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
...FRANCINE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...
Location: 26.6°N 94.1°W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
...FRANCINE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...
Posted on 9/11/24 at 12:47 am to slackster
quote:
slackster
I’ve asked this and haven’t gotten a clear answer. I’m looking on windy.com and noticing that while the storm passes, it’s telling me that the winds will be in the 30/35 mph range. I’m not understanding with the eye passing this close to me, why are those winds that low? Category 1 should be 75mph minimum and I’m not seeing that. Why is that?
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