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Started By
Message
re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph
Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:54 pm to Mr. Hangover
Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:54 pm to Mr. Hangover
FOX 8 has it going over the Westbank to Hancock County before turning north.
0
Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:55 pm to rds dc
quote:
Firing some very deep convection tonight.
She's pissed at TH03 for his dry air comments and his wilted produce.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:56 pm to slackster
quote:I'm not understanding you. All of the models I've seen have it way east of the NHC track. Even the euro shifter east in its last run. Why not put the line over Hammond like it seems the models are telling us? Honest question.
Are we really doing this
Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:56 pm to Jake88
Apologies if this has already been posted
Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:56 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:57 pm to slackster
quote:
quote:Why did it move 4 miles back west?
Are we really doing this?
Ah HA! So you can’t account for those 4 miles, sir? What a disgrace.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:57 pm to NorthEndZone
At this point we are almost wobble-watching, but the new GFS shifted about a 1/4 H to the west.
Strength practically the same at landfall.
Strength practically the same at landfall.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:58 pm to rds dc
So just after 10 recon reported:
EYEWALL HAS 75 PERCENT COVERAGE AROUND THE EYE AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ORGANIZED THAN ON PREVIOUS PASS
Those guys and gals have such cool jobs, man. I have a child-like wonder and admiration for them.
EYEWALL HAS 75 PERCENT COVERAGE AROUND THE EYE AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ORGANIZED THAN ON PREVIOUS PASS
Those guys and gals have such cool jobs, man. I have a child-like wonder and admiration for them.
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 10:59 pm
Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:59 pm to TheFonz
I reiterate. If the forecast is changing this much less than 24 hours before landfall its useless. People who went to bed planning to stay home will wake up having to consider leaving.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:59 pm to Jake88
quote:
Why does that graphic show it hitting due south of New Orleans?
Man, I can’t possibly imagine why
Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:59 pm to Jake88
quote:
Duke, why did the NHC move the track a few miles west when up until 6pm or so most, even the euro moved east.
I know you're not asking me, but they didn't move the landfall west.
They don't predict the center line - they just predict the location of the storm at certain intervals. People freak out over where the line is, but it is literally just connect the dots once they put down the center forecast. Every 6 hours they update the intervals, so a 4 mile west movement of the line doesn't mean they've shifted the track west at all - it could just be the angle between the intervals. See below:
Imagine you live at the red star and the storm is expected to take the green line. Now you're tasked with updating the position along that green line at 12 and 24 hours - the 1st and 3rd dot. 6 hours later as the storm progresses you do the same - the 2nd and 4th dot. If you just connect each of those dots, the path will seem like it went from going south of you to going north of you, when reality is that it was always going south of you, but your intervals aren't close enough to show it.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:59 pm to Havoc
quote:
Ah HA! So you can’t account for those 4 miles, sir? What a disgrace.
Masterful gambit, sir, but I must say, check mate.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:00 pm to rmnldr
quote:
Who is this Schott guy?
All hurricanes are little, trashy storms until it is your house and truck with a tree laying across them.
quote:
Benjamin Schott
His grandma Marge was a crusty old battle-wagon.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:01 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
I reiterate. If the forecast is changing this much less than 24 hours before landfall its useless. People who went to bed planning to stay home will wake up having to consider leaving.
What's changing?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:02 pm to slackster
Nothing, not even the tired arse trolls
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:04 pm to slackster
quote:
What's changing?
The timing
The landfall
The intensity
Are you even paying attention?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:04 pm to slackster
Damn good explanation
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:05 pm to slackster
I must say, I am quite proud of myself for this post. Probably some of my best work in a hurricane thread ever. I put the 4 black asterisks in MS Paint first, like a complete dumbass, but when I dropped that green line and got it to fit on the first grab, I damned near let out a tear. 
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:05 pm to slackster
The local forecast for the Northshore. Winds ~20 miles higher than a few hours ago.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:05 pm to slackster
So are we expecting the storm to be worse than first thought or about the same? Is the dry air supposed to come back tomorrow and help weaken it? I have heard that the storm was a nothingburger but I disagree with any storm being that especially when house damage could occur.
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