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Started By
Message
re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:06 pm to tgrbaitn08
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:06 pm to tgrbaitn08
Really only the timing has changed since this morning
1
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:07 pm to shoelessjoe
quote:
So are we expecting the storm to be worse than first thought or about the same?
It’s a dynamic situation
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:07 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
The timing
The landfall
The intensity
Are you even paying attention?
Not a single one has changed with any significance since 10am.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:07 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
I reiterate. If the forecast is changing this much less than 24 hours before landfall its useless. People who went to bed planning to stay home will wake up having to consider leaving.
Very little, if anything, with the actual forecast has changed.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:08 pm to slackster
quote:
Probably some of my best work in a hurricane thread ever.
I followed it easily with your nice work.
It reminded me of a least squares plot of recorded lab experiment data when I first saw it.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:09 pm to slackster
Sure look like on IR just south of the deep convection an eye is wanting to try and pop out eventually
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:09 pm to shoelessjoe
It’s going to be a nothingburger but will dump some rain, which we’re already used to, and some coastal flooding which is normal.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:10 pm to slackster
quote:I'm looking at where it crosses the I-12 and the 10 pm path crosses the 12 about 2-3 miles west of the 4pm update. I know not to look exactly at the center line but the overall cone shifted 2 miles west as well.
, so a 4 mile west movement of the line doesn't mean they've shifted the track west at all - it could just be the angle between the intervals
My main question is, why? Most models I see suggested it should have moved to just barely west if Hammond. Not trying to be difficult. Just wondering if they see something in the models that suggests they are too far east.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:10 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
I reiterate. If the forecast is changing this much less than 24 hours before landfall its useless. People who went to bed planning to stay home will wake up having to consider leaving.
You’ll be much better off if you stop referring to single model runs as forecasts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:11 pm to Jim Rockford
Conditions ripe to sling water up on Lakeshore Dr. in Mandeville and give whoever the current 4th highest ranking Weather Channel field reporters some good screen time and doom shots.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:11 pm to slackster
quote:
I must say, I am quite proud of myself for this post. Probably some of my best work in a hurricane thread ever. I put the 4 black asterisks in MS Paint first, like a complete dumbass, but when I dropped that green line and got it to fit on the first grab, I damned near let out a tear.
And yet......I bet it will need to be said many more times. Bookmark. Hell, it should be pinned at the beginning of every hurricane season.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:13 pm to Jake88
Bro you're expecting this to be way more exact than it is right now lol. It's not going to be exact down to certain intersections, that's absurd. It's going to be exact within a specific area in order for them to know they're in danger. 2 miles is absolutely nothing in terms of change here.
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 11:14 pm
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:13 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
It’s going to be a nothingburger but will dump some rain, which we’re already used to, and some coastal flooding which is normal.
I’m more concerned about the winds. Just built a new home and fear that with the eye passing close to me that it will be very bad. From around Donaldsonville area and not seeing how this doesn’t damage things.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:13 pm to Jake88
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 11:14 pm
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:13 pm to BRIllini07
Yes, Lakeshore Drive is low hanging fruit.
But I will say I don't want the gusts increasing anymore above 70 mph with pine trees around
But I will say I don't want the gusts increasing anymore above 70 mph with pine trees around
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:14 pm to TH03
quote:
Really only the timing has changed since this morning
The difference between the 10a forecast and the 10p forecast at 7p Wednesday is 15 miles and 5kt of intensity.
This is the kind of shite that tgrbait08 thinks is significant. Shocker that this guy also argued that Belle River and Stephen(s)ville were substantially different for a few pages.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:14 pm to Jake88
quote:
I'm looking at where it crosses the I-12 and the 10 pm path crosses the 12 about 2-3 miles west of the 4pm update. I know not to look exactly at the center line but the overall cone shifted 2 miles west as well.
My main question is, why? Most models I see suggested it should have moved to just barely west if Hammond. Not trying to be difficult. Just wondering if they see something in the models that suggests they are too far east.
What’s amazing is that they keep responding to you
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:15 pm to TH03
quote:
Masterful gambit, sir, but I must say, check mate.
This downvote will haunt your days.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:16 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
The timing
The landfall
The intensity
Are you even paying attention?
Oh look, it’s the most annoying person on tigerdroppings
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:16 pm to slackster
I don’t apologize for paying attention to details.
It’s one of my blessings and a curse at the same time
It’s one of my blessings and a curse at the same time
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