re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

4am

I would not be shocked to see a Morgan City landfall. These things usually go farther east than initially forecast when coming in from that angle.

Just updated. New Iberia landfall. Hard to tell how much was an easterly track and how much was it just the cone shrinking

Doesn’t even looked like it’s changed at all

Also appears that she slowed down a touch to a 3-4pm landfall

Which means we won’t know damage till Thursday morning

The other bit of news is that it may not make it to the intensity the NHC is predicting. It has not strengthened since early yesterday afternoon and the longer it waits to start intensifying the less time it will have. They said their intensity forecast is on the high end of the guidance, meaning they are erring on the side of it growing stronger than the models are predicting. It could very well just landfall as a low end cat 1 and that’d be great news!

4am center of cone track progression

Landfall at Western end of Vermilion Bay to
Just east of Delcambre to
Just west of New Iberia to
Henderson to
Just west of New Roads

This is about a 12 to 15 mile shift eastward.

Previous track info below

10 pm center of cone track progression

landfall just east of Pecan Island to
just west of Abbeville to
between Maurice and Milton to
Lafayette to
Arnaudville

This is about a 10 to 12 mile shift east from the 4 pm center of cone track.

Reminder: The hurricane is not a single point, and the worst conditons can be anywhere within about 10 to about 30 miles from the center depending on size of eye. Francine is currently forecast to be a small-sized hurricane force wind field of out to 30 miles from center.

Rain totals in LC have dropped quite a bit on the weather app. Hope everyone stays safe.

Icon also at least to me shows it slowing some after landfall.