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re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:59 am to
Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle
Member since Jan 2023
8153 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:59 am to
Those ensembles don’t really show a NW movement
Posted by berrycajun
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
7223 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 1:00 am to
Someone may have already posted. Caparotta did a good little summary this evening. He shows what he thinks we can expect locally. At least what he thinks based on the latest update
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=poY5PTRM99s&feature=youtu.be

Noon Wednesday
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2pm Wednesday
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4pm Wednesday
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This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 1:12 am
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 1:03 am to
HAFS-A shifted west and HAFS-B shifted east, but both are into Terrebonne Parish, which is obviously east of the current forecast by quite a bit. The HAFS-A has been a major outlier today with how far east it was taking it, and has come back to the pack some here.
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 1:05 am
Posted by BregmansWheelbarrow
Member since Mar 2020
3261 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 1:09 am to
The hafs-a had the eye going east of Houma at one point it was also showing about 950.
Posted by tLSU
Member since Oct 2007
8684 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 1:10 am to
I assume you mean Wednesday??
Posted by berrycajun
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
7223 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 1:11 am to
Yes. Wednesday. Thx
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 1:12 am
Posted by BregmansWheelbarrow
Member since Mar 2020
3261 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 1:15 am to
I was picking about what a crazy outlier it was, not your situation.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 1:16 am to
quote:

The hafs-a had the eye going east of Houma at one point it was also showing about 950.


shite it was south and eventually east of New Orleans. It's still way off of the consensus to the point of being almost unbelievable, but it's not as insane.
Posted by berrycajun
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
7223 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 1:18 am to
Yeh. & I thought it was going to be even more west. Good news for Lake Charles and their capital one rubble at least.

10:30am Morgan city Wednesday
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Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 1:21 am to
The GRAF model comes from IBM, who owns The Weather Channel.

It’s designed to be a legitimate model obviously, but the for-profit nature and conflict of interest always leaves me a little skeptical.
Posted by 94LSU
Member since May 2023
1121 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 1:26 am to
The NOAA has a Google Earth KML file that seems to update about every 30 mins once opened in Google Earth.

LINK

Google Earth Pro for desktop download: LINK
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 1:29 am
Posted by berrycajun
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
7223 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 1:28 am to
But at the end of his video he said this is his predicted path as of now —the white line he drew.

[/url][/img]

that’s a good bit further west than the images that have the eye over Morgan city. So it’s still not locked in (in my opinion, which is not based on science, but rather a recollection of hurricanes doing what they want at the last minute)
Posted by Hamma1122
Member since Sep 2016
22312 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 1:32 am to
Trends are east. NHC won’t budge the track
Posted by Hamma1122
Member since Sep 2016
22312 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 1:34 am to
That’s moved east 20 miles
Posted by X123F45
Member since Apr 2015
29829 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 1:42 am to
Wait a minute I didn't think it was supposed to be getting here quite that soon are we supposed to start seeing winds in the greater Baton Rouge area?

Tomorrow evening?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 1:51 am to


NHC forecast now noticeably west of early 6z guidance.

6z intensity forecast is down though, which is good.
Posted by wasteland
City of peace
Member since Apr 2011
5918 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 2:04 am to
She’s sucking in more dry air delaying intensification. Thats great for LA
Posted by maisweh
Member since Jan 2014
4222 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:09 am to
Blue, green and purple lines can get fricked
Posted by RanchoLaPuerto
Jena
Member since Aug 2023
2150 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:12 am to
quote:

are we supposed to start seeing winds in the greater Baton Rouge area


NHC says 8 am Wednesday.
Posted by ForeverLSU02
Albany
Member since Jun 2007
52563 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:27 am to
quote:

could see a few power outages but hopefully nothing crazy
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