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re: Former WH Aid Reveals Scale of North Korea's Plans to Invade South Korea
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:30 pm to Darth_Vader
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:30 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
According to this former WH aid, the South and the U.S. would win this hypothetical war but it would take 4 to 6 months to do so.
My Uncle said 4 days to a week...and that was with the US just telling the South to go and maybe helping with signals interception. North Korea has old diesel tanks, virtually no night fighting ability and their supply lines go over mountain passes. One Apache could halt an entire column, and they don't even have enough fuel to train their pilots.
Sure there would be holdouts, but the military would disappear.
There would be a coup and some cousin of Il would take him out.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:30 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
According to this former WH aid, the South and the U.S. would win this hypothetical war but it would take 4 to 6 months to do so.
My Uncle said 4 days to a week...and that was with the US just telling the South to go and maybe helping with signals interception. North Korea has old diesel tanks, virtually no night fighting ability and their supply lines go over mountain passes. One Apache could halt an entire column, and they don't even have enough fuel to train their pilots.
Sure there would be holdouts, but the military would disappear.
There would be a coup and some cousin of Il would take him out.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:33 pm to Darth_Vader
I'd like to see NK fall but not a war. Loss of innocent human life is never anything to hope for.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:36 pm to Darth_Vader
Even China would be pissed at the instability this would cause in the region. There's a incredibly small chance NK does something like this, as they would all be wiped off the map in a span of a few minutes.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:38 pm to Mootsman
quote:
Let them do it. The U.S. should stay out of it.
Yeah, that's not gonna happen. China wouldn't even protect them at that point.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:38 pm to Darth_Vader
Putin I'm not scared of. He knows what's up, he knows how the game is played, and he has no plans to actually attack the USA or a first world country. And when he eventually tried to take back the old satellites, he'll do it with guns and armies.
The psycho egomaniac in North Korea would have no problem using chemical weapons and biological weapons and mass death and destruction to both civilian and military targets. That's scary.
The psycho egomaniac in North Korea would have no problem using chemical weapons and biological weapons and mass death and destruction to both civilian and military targets. That's scary.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:40 pm to PurpleandGold Motown
quote:
My Uncle said 4 days to a week...and that was with the US just telling the South to go and maybe helping with signals interception. North Korea has old diesel tanks, virtually no night fighting ability and their supply lines go over mountain passes. One Apache could halt an entire column, and they don't even have enough fuel to train their pilots.
Sure there would be holdouts, but the military would disappear.
There would be a coup and some cousin of Il would take him out.
I have no idea what credentials your uncle has regarding Korea. As for the guy who wrote this book....
quote:
Victor Cha joined CSIS in May 2009 as a senior adviser and the inaugural holder of the Korea Chair. He is also director of Asian studies and holds the D.S. Song-KF Chair in the Department of Government and School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. From 2004 to 2007, he served as director for Asian affairs at the White House on the National Security Council (NSC), where he was responsible primarily for Japan, the Korean peninsula, Australia/New Zealand, and Pacific Island nation affairs. Dr. Cha was also the deputy head of delegation for the United States at the Six-Party Talks in Beijing and received two Outstanding Service Commendations during his tenure at the NSC. He is the award-winning author of Alignment Despite Antagonism: The United States-Korea-Japan Security Triangle (Stanford University Press, 1999), winner of the 2000 Ohira Book Prize; Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies, with Dave Kang (Columbia University Press, 2004); Beyond the Final Score: The Politics of Sport in Asia (Columbia University Press, 2009); and The Impossible State: North Korea, Past and Future (Ecco, 2012), selected by Foreign Affairs magazine as a 2012 “Best Book on Asia and the Pacific.” His next book is Powerplay: Origins of the American Alliance System in Asia (Princeton University Press, forthcoming). He has written articles on international relations and East Asia in journals including Foreign Affairs, International Security, Political Science Quarterly, Survival, International Studies Quarterly, and Asian Survey.
Dr. Cha is a former John M. Olin National Security Fellow at Harvard University, a two-time Fulbright Scholar, and a Hoover National Fellow, CISAC Fellow, and William J. Perry Fellow at Stanford University. He holds Georgetown University’s Dean’s Teaching Award for 2010 and the Distinguished Research Award for 2011. He serves as an independent consultant and has testified before Congress on Asian security issues. He has been a guest analyst for various media including CNN, ABC Nightline, NBC Today Show, CBS Morning Show, Fox News, MSNBC, CNBC, BBC, ESPN, Sports Illustrated, and National Public Radio. He has a cameo role (as himself) in the upcoming action film “Red Dawn” (Contrafilm, MGM, Vincent Newman Entertainment) scheduled for release in November 2012. Dr. Cha holds a B.A., an M.I.A., and a Ph.D. from Columbia University, as well as an M.A. from Oxford University.
Nothing against your uncle....
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:42 pm to Breesus
quote:
The psycho egomaniac in North Korea would have no problem using chemical weapons and biological weapons and mass death and destruction to both civilian and military targets. That's scary.
The second that something was launched towards an actual target, it would either be destroyed, or the subsequent launch of weapons from SK and its allies would end most all future attacks.
This would be like me sucker-punching Kimbo Slice in his prime. I might get that one first shot in, but the damage that would be done to me after that would be catastrophic.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:43 pm to MLSter
Those tunnels are designed for special forces and will move a few battalions under the DMZ. There's miles of mountainous terrain after that to navigate.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:46 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
The second that something was launched towards an actual target, it would either be destroyed, or the subsequent launch of weapons from SK and its allies would end most all future attacks.
This would be like me sucker-punching Kimbo Slice in his prime. I might get that one first shot in, but the damage that would be done to me after that would be catastrophic.
I have no duvet that if the North ever did attack the South, the end would mean disaster for them. But it would not be as quick and easy as many here wish to believe. As the author of this book said, it would take 4-6 months, leave hundreds of thousands or more dead, and just about leave the whole peninsula a wasteland.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:48 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Basically that means if anyone attacks South Korea, we will view that as an attack on us as well.
I bet everyone would invade North Korea, including the Chinese. Everyone is sick of their shite since we're in the most peaceful era in human history and they're trying to frick all that up.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:49 pm to MLSter
How a country this size is so "powerful" is beyond me.


Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:49 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
But it would not be as quick and easy as many here wish to believe.
Sure it would.
quote:
As the author of this book said, it would take 4-6 months, leave hundreds of thousands or more dead, and just about leave the whole peninsula a wasteland.
Have you read the book?
No fricking way it takes 4-6 months to stop NK. All you need to do is send everything you've got to Pyongyang. Once a few key targets are hit, then you've cut the head off the snake.
That said, I agree that a lot of people would be dead, but I think the vast majority would be North Koreans.
This post was edited on 5/3/16 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:51 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
quote:
Basically that means if anyone attacks South Korea, we will view that as an attack on us as well.
I bet everyone would invade North Korea, including the Chinese. Everyone is sick of their shite since we're in the most peaceful era in human history and they're trying to frick all that u
I don't think the Chinese would come into the war on our side. The last thing they would want is to help the U.S. Gain any ground or influence in Asia, especially right on their doorstep.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:52 pm to Darth_Vader
its funny how the american government always harps about removing dictators from iraq,libya,etc bc dictators are bad for the world yet we do nothing about north korea. Is it a coincidence these awful arab nations have oil and north korea doesnt so we dont care, i dont think so. What made Saddam Hussein any worse than Kim Jong Il, I personally think kim jong il was way worse
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:53 pm to Johnny B Goode
quote:
Well, I agree with the WH aide. It shouldn't take much time at all. Lil Kim isn't going to put his life on the line like that though. He knows if he did such a stupid thing, the ROK would hunt his fat arse down and put two into his fat skull.
The problem isn't if Kim is smart enough to know this, the point is he's utterly crazy. Intelligence means little to a crazy person. Take Heather/yoga girl for example. I don't think think she's stupid, just crazy.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:53 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
I bet everyone would invade North Korea, including the Chinese.
yeah i was going to say if NK makes an offensive attack, China won't back them and may invade the north (mainly to kill lots of north koreans so they don't have to put them on chinese welfare rolls after the war).
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:54 pm to PurpleandGold Motown
quote:
My Uncle said 4 days to a week...and that was with the US just telling the South to go and maybe helping with signals interception.
You're uncle is wrong.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:54 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I don't think the Chinese would come into the war on our side. The last thing they would want is to help the U.S. Gain any ground or influence in Asia, especially right on their doorstep.
China coming in to establish their dominance could easily be spun into the exact opposite of that
you think the Chinese would sit back while the US and SK get credit for eliminating the crazy worldwide nuclear threat of NK? no way
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:55 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
Have you read the book?
No. Just a few excerpts from the article and some links.
quote:
No fricking way it takes 4-6 months to stop NK. All you need to do is send everything you've got to Pyongyang. Once a few key targets are hit, then you've cut the head off the snake
The expert on the subject who wrote this book says it would take 4-6 months. This his view on the matter. I posted his credentials just a few moments ago. Are you saying you know more about this matter than him?
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