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re: Everyone has been WishCasting the housing market for almost 4 years now...
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:06 am to Yeti_Chaser
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:06 am to Yeti_Chaser
quote:
I don't see there being a "crash."
I don't either, at least not widespread ones. Some isolated markets may have issues driven by people leaving/fleeing bad policy.
The ingredients we are seeing in the market don't point to a crash though. We have a lot of buyers and sellers on the sidelines waiting for rates to go down. A lot of new homes are being built and even more will be once the rates go down again, but materials and labor are so high that its not like massive numbers of people will be able to get a great deal on a new construction and leave sellers with existing houses unable to sell. And the knowledge that a lot of these new constructions are huge pieces of crap is becoming more common too.
0
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:06 am to Cosmo
quote:
Women want that shiny new house and they will get it
ain't that the truth
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:06 am to sidewalkside
quote:
In fact average home prices have only increased.
quote:
Now, many areas that had seen wild price gains during the pandemic are experiencing a marked correction. Here are the states where prices fell from 2022 levels:
Idaho: -8%
Washington: -7.5%
Nevada: -5.6%
Montana: -5.3%
Utah: -4.3%
Arizona: -4.2%
California: -3.5%
Oregon: -3.1%
Colorado: -2.7%
South Dakota: -1.3%
New York: -0.3%
District of Columbia: -0.1%
A combination of low inventory, high taxes, rising mortgage rates and a changing job market has led to a slowdown in many Western markets, according to Kristen D. Conti, broker-owner at Peacock Premier Properties.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:07 am to Jcorye1
quote:And that’s where you’d be wrong.
Not a ton of concessions to be made when 20 people are fighting for each house.
If you know how to structure a contract, you can make them look better than they actually are to sellers.
Since frankly most realtors have no clue, it’s not terribly difficult to get it past most of them.
Yes, I know my fellow realtors quite well.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:07 am to sidewalkside
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/4/25 at 6:12 pm
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:09 am to sidewalkside
The average span between recessions is 6-7 years. Government printing is only kicking the can down the road.
This post was edited on 7/29/24 at 10:14 am
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:10 am to sidewalkside
quote:
And while inventory has increased.
Has it though? And has it relative to population increases?
And has inventory increased in the area where it is needed, i.e., the classic, 2k square feet, 3/2?
What has increased are "high" starters and "mids", that are increasingly coming on the market in the high $3s to mid $4s which lower middle class, even with 2 incomes are struggling to afford, even with equity from their actual starter home.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:11 am to Shexter
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/4/25 at 6:11 pm
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:12 am to el Gaucho
Beautiful technique as always chum
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:23 am to sidewalkside
Seems like conventional wisdom is that as rates fall, prices will go up; so you're not getting much benefit by waiting.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:25 am to sidewalkside
I, recently, purchased a house. I was able to get an FHA loan with special concessions. I was able to get 5.75%.
With very little down.
The good thing is, the money I had saved for down payment is going to remodeling and improvements. I will build in the equity plus Ill pay over every month on my mortgage. Should have it paid off in 10 years.
With very little down.
The good thing is, the money I had saved for down payment is going to remodeling and improvements. I will build in the equity plus Ill pay over every month on my mortgage. Should have it paid off in 10 years.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:27 am to Mahootney
quote:
Who wants to buy a home at 7% interest? Especially one over $400k? That's $28k / year in interest alone. A quick mortgage calculation with 20% down says $2600/mo for 30 years. Yikes.
Imagine being 25 years old
$80,000 down payment
$12,000 closing costs
$2,600 monthly
+ 1,400 in taxes/insurance monthly
For a 1700-square-foot house
Retarded
This post was edited on 7/29/24 at 10:28 am
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:32 am to sidewalkside
I don’t know what these types of discussion serve.
Less than 0.5% of people (who can afford it) are waiting to buy a home.
Virtually no one has any significant savings these days. Inflation is killing everyone.
Anyone who can afford the monthly note is buying. The problem is that with high prices and high rates, the buyers just don’t exist.
The average home can go to a million next year and most people will not “regret” their lack of purchase today.
Because they can’t afford the monthly payment anyway.
I don’t regret not purchasing a 2 million dollar Bugatti because they now cost 3 million.
Less than 0.5% of people (who can afford it) are waiting to buy a home.
Virtually no one has any significant savings these days. Inflation is killing everyone.
Anyone who can afford the monthly note is buying. The problem is that with high prices and high rates, the buyers just don’t exist.
The average home can go to a million next year and most people will not “regret” their lack of purchase today.
Because they can’t afford the monthly payment anyway.
I don’t regret not purchasing a 2 million dollar Bugatti because they now cost 3 million.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:39 am to KamaCausey_LSU
quote:
Seems like conventional wisdom is that as rates fall, prices will go up; so you're not getting much benefit by waiting.
Not necessarily true.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:53 am to sidewalkside
quote:
And while inventory has increased.
its trending up but still well below pre 2020 numbers
june 2019: 1,219,807 (median listing $320,000)
June 2023: 614,326 (median listing $445000)
June 2024: 839,992 (median listing $445000)
LINK
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:58 am to theunknownknight
quote:
Imagine being 25 years old
$80,000 down payment
$12,000 closing costs
$2,600 monthly
+ 1,400 in taxes/insurance monthly
For a 1700-square-foot house
The gen'xer here with Zoomer kids are about to bitch so much when their children come asking for help on down payments
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:58 am to sidewalkside
People need to realize that rates are still below the APOR. They got too used to rates being 2-4% for a while that they thought that was complete norm. Do we all want them to drop. Sure! Are they going to like people think? Nope.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 11:42 am to sidewalkside
I have a home, don’t need another. I do want another but the price/interest rate is going to have to improve or I’ll just stay in my current house
Posted on 7/29/24 at 11:52 am to Chicken
And what did your house cost in 1992? A steel penny?
Posted on 7/29/24 at 11:58 am to jwalk38
quote:I bought it in 1998...I think it cost me $270k.
1992
We were dual income, no kids, and didn't have expensive taste.
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