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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 10/6/20 at 7:48 am to Nutriaitch
quote:
coming in from opposite angle though. not sure if that will help us or screw us.
I would think it would be worse for storm surge coming at this angle.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 7:50 am to Jake88
quote:
What is the reason for the slight trend west? Does that continue?
No Gamma to slingshot it up and around the Yucatán, so it’s taking a more WNW track through the Yucatán instead. This gets it further west into the GOM, but it’s not so slow as to cause it to miss La altogether when it turns. Further west it gets, without slowing down significantly, the further west landfall becomes.
For our SWLA friends though, the odds are in your favor to escape this on the good side, thankfully.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 7:53 am to slackster
Someones gonna end up on the bad side of this one. Is it selfish that I dont want it to be us?
Posted on 10/6/20 at 7:53 am to slackster
Work in Lafourche and live in Orleans. Guessing I should start looking at hotel rooms somewhere.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 7:54 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
would think it would be worse for storm surge coming at this angle.
Intuitively would say the same thing. Going to be onshore winds 6-12 hours before landfall.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 7:56 am to slackster
and a west it goes.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 7:56 am to slackster
quote:
For our SWLA friends though, the odds are in your favor to escape this on the good side, thankfully.
Not to wish misfortune on anyone else, but any significant wind and rain in LCH would be the knockout blow for many damaged homes and businesses.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 7:57 am to AmosMosesAndTwins
12z spaghetti models:
Posted on 10/6/20 at 7:59 am to slackster
quote:
BR and Nola are no bueno
You think this will be that bad for BR?
Posted on 10/6/20 at 7:59 am to slackster
Thanks. Do you expect it to cross the thicker part of the Yucatan rather than just the tip?
Is that shear still predicted to show up?
Is that shear still predicted to show up?
Posted on 10/6/20 at 8:00 am to NolaTiger52
Based on the image right above your post, yes this can be bad for BR
Posted on 10/6/20 at 8:01 am to Jake88
quote:
Do you expect it to cross the thicker part of the Yucatan rather than just the tip?
Sometimes just the tip is enough to get it done.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 8:03 am to SippyCup
As I pressed submit i foresaw this response.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 8:03 am to slackster
quote:
No Gamma to slingshot it up and around the Yucatán, so it’s taking a more WNW track through the Yucatán instead. This gets it further west into the GOM, but it’s not so slow as to cause it to miss La altogether when it turns. Further west it gets, without slowing down significantly, the further west landfall becomes.
No gamma means more wnw now but according to Levi Gamma was going to slingshot it more west in the gulf which won't happen now
Posted on 10/6/20 at 8:05 am to NolaTiger52
quote:
BR and Nola are no bueno
You think this will be that bad for BR?
BR could see 70mph gusts on this current track. Don’t see the point evacuating to a place with that potential forecast.
If I’m evacuating, I’m trying to get out of this red and pink area.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 8:05 am to Midtiger farm
quote:
No gamma means more wnw now but according to Levi Gamma was going to slingshot it more west in the gulf which won't happen now
So no Gamma means more wnw but not more west?
Posted on 10/6/20 at 8:05 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
I would think it would be worse for storm surge coming at this angle.
guess that depends on what part of parish.
i’m in Montegut on eastern end.
we are exposed as hell and vulnerable from the south east.
this one coming from the southwest instead ill actually be pushing water to the more protected parts of the parish than Andrew did.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 8:06 am to Midtiger farm
quote:
No gamma means more wnw now but according to Levi Gamma was going to slingshot it more west in the gulf which won't happen now
Yeah but Delta still gets as far west because of this current WNW motion.
ETA the GFS for noon or so on Wednesday yesterday morning
Gamma was to the south and would have spun Delta around to the west before landfall in Terrebonne.
Same time frame on this morning’s run
No Gamma to the south, so Delta isn’t forced to go up and around it.
Ultimately it has a very small shift west in landfall as a result.
This post was edited on 10/6/20 at 8:14 am
Posted on 10/6/20 at 8:06 am to slackster
Have fun in Beaumont. Make sure you stop at Bucees
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