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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:19 pm to dukke v
Yeah but ya famous
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:19 pm to Large Farva
quote:
Was it supposed to not strengthen much today?
Gradual, steady strengthening was expected, and is still happening. It may or may not get back to RI. It is dealing with less shear now and still over warm water, so we shall see.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:20 pm to Large Farva
Remember, NHC only updates tracks at 10 and 4.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:20 pm to tigafan4life
quote:
actually went to the NHC site and looked at the interactive map. And looked at the 10 am track and the 1 pm. If anything it looks the same. Sorry that I’m not seeing it.
Believe they are referring to the latest euro run
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:20 pm to tigafan4life
quote:
And looked at the 10 am track and the 1 pm. If anything it looks the same.
It’s exactly the same. The track is only updated at 4 and 10 CST.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:20 pm to LSUfanNkaty
Oh well ok. There are so many “runs” I can’t keep up with it all.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:20 pm to mightynine
quote:
Remember, NHC only updates tracks at 10 and 4.
Wait... that can’t be right, right?
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:20 pm to reds on reds on reds
quote:
es, I misread your post as the 975mb was a tad high, meaning the actual is a lower mb and therefore stronger.
You didn't misread anything, I just worded it like an idiot. Sorry for the confusion.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:20 pm to tigafan4life
The NHC maps from 10 am and 1 pm shouldn’t show a difference in forecasted landfall since they are the same maps.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:21 pm to purple18
quote:
when all is said and swine
Keep the pigs out of this.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:21 pm to Large Farva
quote:
That hardly looks like a shift east
The 00z run was coming in almost to the border
This one is coming in almost in Vermillion parish so at least a 40 mile shift
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:21 pm to Festus
quote:
Gustav was basically direct hit to BR.
don't let those pesky 85 miles of land it went thru first stop you tho
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:22 pm to Large Farva
it's a shift east on the euro
it makes the euro ensemble similar to GFS now
it makes the euro ensemble similar to GFS now
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:22 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
This is the map that the guy who posted said was a shift East. This doesn’t look like a shift East at all.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:22 pm to tigafan4life
The Euro model was the most westward model, it specifically has shifted east in line with the GFS. Hope that clears up some of the confusion.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:23 pm to Large Farva
I realize that now. I’m not some crazy hurricane person so I don’t know when things really get the big update.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:23 pm to Mr Perfect
Did the GFS shift east yet or has it run?
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:23 pm to tigafan4life
quote:
There are so many “runs” I can’t keep up with it all.
Generally, the NHC track is based on all the “runs” euro, GFS, HMON,etc. that occur between 10 and 4. The NHC isn’t really a model, but the track a group of experts think is correct based on the model runs.
So everyone talking about the model runs trending East is hypothesizing that the NHC will see that shift east and adjust the official track East at 4.
You have to look at apples to apples. The euro model may be well west of everyone else, but a 40 mile shift East compared to its own prior run is significant.
This post was edited on 10/7/20 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:23 pm to sheek
There’s a lot of dry air over Texas particularly here in Houston. I am not a weather geek but more of a curious weather guy.. how much will dry air compromise the storm as it makes landfall? I looked at the back side temps and dew points and it’s going to be dry once the hurricane moves out. Weird hurricane approach
This post was edited on 10/7/20 at 1:25 pm
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