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re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins

Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:40 pm to
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216451 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:40 pm to
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10129 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

my hope is for zero deaths and minimal damage for all.......





The entire state is fricked now
Posted by DiamondDog
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2019
13230 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:41 pm to
I would argue if there is a best area to come up through it’s between Lafayette and Baton Rouge. Those baws always come out alright.
Posted by X123F45
Member since Apr 2015
29811 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:41 pm to
Next time he could at least only doom bunkie
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:41 pm to
quote:



Posted at 12:35pm


Not on the first page
Posted by X123F45
Member since Apr 2015
29811 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:42 pm to
quote:

it’s between Lafayette and Baton Rouge. Those baws always come out alright.




.... Hey

EABOD

I just want a night of drinking on the patio. Not a hurricane.
Posted by DiamondDog
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2019
13230 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:43 pm to
Infrastructure wise is there a better place?
Posted by TheRoarRestoredInBR
Member since Dec 2004
31120 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:45 pm to


To Texas
This post was edited on 10/7/20 at 12:46 pm
Posted by ThuperThumpin
Member since Dec 2013
9338 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:45 pm to
Anybody know the wind speeds for Issac in BR? Could we expect similar wind speeds in BR from Delta based on the current track?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:45 pm to


12z GFS Ensembles are pretty honed in on Vermilion/Cameron border area.

Ensembles like this are attempts by the model to account for a range of possibilities given the fact that initial conditions are never perfectly sampled, so given a few changes in the initial set up, this is a range the GFS finds plausible.

It's not the only solutions since it's still limited by the models imperfections, but it gives you an idea. It's one tool of many.
Posted by bubbz
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2006
23117 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:46 pm to
Isaac was nothing for BR. Think Gustav when comparing to Delta.
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:47 pm to
Pine Island fixin to get whacked
Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
109160 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

Peej, what do you think will happen? I need to make my plans for the weekend.


Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10129 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

Anybody know the wind speeds for Issac in BR? Could we expect similar wind speeds in BR from Delta based on the current track?


I would say think more along the lines of Gustav, maybe even a little stronger depending on where it actually ends up
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50614 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

Isaac was nothing for BR. Think Gustav when comparing to Delta.

From what I’m seeing, this will be nothing like Gustav in Baton Rouge. I’m seeing 35 mph sustained with gusts to 60 mph.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:49 pm to
Cracks me up when the hurricane hunters completely miss the center on the first approach.



This pattern of flight level winds gives some indication that the enlargement of the wind field is happening.

Posted by gerkin
Member since Sep 2011
1305 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:50 pm to
What does the color coding respond to? One would think wind speed, but doesnt really make sense for wind speeds seen so far
Posted by The People
LSU Alumni
Member since Aug 2008
4428 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:50 pm to
As the forecast stands now, I think 35mph to 60mph is accurate. But I also anticipate a shift East at some point and will bump the speeds to Gustav levels.

Not an expert.
Posted by Brobocop
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2018
2117 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

From what I’m seeing, this will be nothing like Gustav in Baton Rouge. I’m seeing 35 mph sustained with gusts to 60 mph.


Sure fuggin hope so!
Posted by tigerinthebueche
Member since Oct 2010
38025 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

I’m seeing 35 mph sustained with gusts to 60 mph.




I hop you are as right abut this as you were about Chailee Son
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