re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins

People were asking about eastern shifts, and the 12z Euro EPS was actually east of the 6z Euro. Still an outlier to the west overall, but a east shift nonetheless.

6z (Old)



12z (New)

IDK but I'd appreciate that if it has to come to me, that it would be a daytime deal so I could see and not just hear.

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Anyone who knows anything about hurricanes knew this would shift west.

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The force field over this part of Southeast Louisiana is putting in work this year. I hate some of y’all will be going through this again, sucks anyone has to deal with this.

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The force field over this part of Southeast Louisiana is putting in work this year. I hate some of y’all will be going through this again, sucks anyone has to deal with this.

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We are lucky to have the Mississippi push these storms away.

NHC zoomable track

Just toggle the track on and you can zoom all the way in on the forecast.

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CE can you link it? Thanks. I'm south of Abbeville ... sigh.

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I just pull the NHC Data into google earth
LINK

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Can a fricking expert please explain why this thing keeps shifting West? Will it only keep shifting West from here on out or can it go back East? Really starting to get fed up with this shite.
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The computer generated models are issuing their predictions and are trending West. Tomorrow they could shift farther west, stay the same of shift eastward. The models aren’t gospel.

And the NHC track can also shift depending on the information they have at their disposal and what their training tells them.

And reality is since yesterday the hurricane as gotten a lot stronger than predicted yesterday but it’s tracked as predicted.

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Anyone who knows anything about hurricanes knew this would shift west.

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let's ask the NHC's Forecaster Brown

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064
WTNT41 KNHC 062034
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Shortly after the release of the 1500 UTC advisory package, the
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind
of 132 kt, and during its final passage through the northeast
eyewall around 1700 UTC it reported a peak SFMR wind of 121 kt.
The aircraft continued to report an extremely small 4-to-5-nmi-wide
eye. The central pressure did level off somewhat on the final
couple of penetrations, with the latest reported central pressure
at 956 mb. The initial wind speed was raised to 120 kt on the
earlier intermediate advisory, and has been set at 125 kt for this
advisory. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission into the
hurricane is scheduled for this evening.

There has been no evidence of an outer eyewall from the aircraft
reports or earlier radar imagery from Grand Cayman. As a
result, some additional strengthening is likely to occur before
Delta reaches the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula late
tonight or early Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is once
again a little above the various intensity aids until landfall in
Mexico. When the small inner core of Delta moves over land,
weakening is expected, but warm waters and low vertical wind shear
over the southern Gulf of Mexico should support re-strengthening,
and a second peak in intensity is likely when Delta is over the
central Gulf of Mexico in 48-60 hours. After that time, increasing
southwesterly shear and the cooler shelf waters over the
northern Gulf are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed.
The global models, however, depict a significant increase in the
size of Delta's wind field while it is over the Gulf of Mexico,
which increases the spatial extent of the storm surge and wind
threats for the northern Gulf coast. So regardless of Delta's
final landfall intensity, the projected large size of the hurricane
is likely to result in a significant storm surge and wind event for
portions of the northern Gulf coast later this week.

Delta has been moving steadily west-northwestward today at 300/15
kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous
advisory. A mid-level ridge over Florida and the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico is expected to continue steering Delta west-northwestward
during the next 36-48 hours. After that time, a developing trough
over the south-central United States should cause Delta to turn
northward, and by Friday the hurricane is forecast to begin
accelerating northward or north-northeastward ahead of the trough.
This motion will bring Delta onshore along the northern Gulf coast
between 72 and 96 hours. The dynamical models continue to be
tightly clustered through 48-72 hours with some increase in spread
thereafter. The overall trend in the guidance has been slightly
westward, and the new forecast has been adjusted accordingly and
lies near the middle of the envelope. Supplemental upper-air balloon
launches at 0600 and 1800 UTC have begun at upper-air sites across
portions of the southeastern United States. In addition, a NOAA
G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is in progress and should provide
additional data for the 0000 UTC cycle of the dynamical models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic wind
damage are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands,
western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek.
This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and
mudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minor
river flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf
Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta
moves inland later this week.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of
Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and
follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane
watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf
Coast on Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 18.9N 84.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 23.0N 91.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 24.4N 92.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 25.9N 93.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 28.0N 92.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 32.4N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/1800Z 35.5N 87.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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It had to hit Florida and the East Coast because they somehow avoided hurricanes this year. Balancing nature is all.