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3
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:04 pm to mightynine
I told you those muddy waters will push that thing west!
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:05 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
If you think this thing is going anywhere west of Lafayette at the most, you are dead wrong. I wouldn't even bank on that.
there are several models showing tracks West of Laffy....
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:05 pm to GeauxGutsy
quote:
Yucatan will give it a shove West. My guess is 50 miles East of Galveston as a Cat 2-3
Wow. Bold call. This is way out of the current consensus by the pros. Not saying you are wrong.
What are you seeing that makes you think it's headed just east of Galveston other than the westerly shift caused by the Yucatan and Gamma?
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:06 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:What a perfect post right after yours.
GEAUXmedic
So often you end up coming across as a poser. We get multiple examples for every storm.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:07 pm to mightynine
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:07 pm to Purpleblooded
quote:
Thoughts on Destin/30A to ride out the storm?
I have on good authority that the storm will skip over any house or vehicle with a 30A stick on a window. It's the Dixie version of Passover.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:07 pm to deltaland
quote:
quote:
what did Mississippi & Tennessee get out of that super outbreak?
We never get anything in MS. We are the red headed stepchild of states
Mississippi was impacted by 39 tornadoes during the 2011 Super Outbreak. Two of which were EF-4, and one of which was an EF-5. Of course other storms that began in Mississippi would also produce violent tornadoes when they entered Alabama.
This post was edited on 10/6/20 at 1:10 pm
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:07 pm to jimbeam
NOLA in the clear!
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:07 pm to ell_13
quote:
What a perfect post right after yours.
So often you end up coming across as a poser. We get multiple examples for every storm.
I thought the same thing once I saw the post right under his
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:08 pm to mightynine
quote:
That's a pretty big nudge. Is the high building in stronger than first thought? Delta's overall motion a little more west that expected?
It's a little both. It'll interact with Gamma and force it a little farther west. Additionally it's spewing outflow out and that'll weaken the upper low a little that is setting the edge to the ridge, so the ridge builds in a little farther west.
The shifts, at this point, make enough sense but be careful chasing them too far west. It's going to turn N and then NE eventually and when they're going to turn I have a bit of a bias in my head toward the turn direction in terms of track error.
At this point though, hard to see how Baton Rouge doesn't get a solid hit from this.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:08 pm to Ancient Astronaut
quote:
NOLA in the clear!
NOLA have been in the cone 6 times this year.....we are never in the clear...
But I think we are out of the woods
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:08 pm to Ancient Astronaut
I will punch you
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:08 pm to tgrbaitn08
Could take Laura’s track
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:09 pm to GumboPot
quote:
What are you seeing that makes you think it's headed just east of Galveston other than the westerly shift caused by the Yucatan and Gamma?
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:09 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
But I think we are out of the woods
This thing is landing in Texas. We good.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:09 pm to LaBR4
quote:
Goodness gracious. I had to tell him BR is NOT on the GoM, unbelievable.
It's only 70 miles from bayou sorrel/ Plaquemine. And that's what's crazy.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:09 pm to Ancient Astronaut
quote:
Ancient Astronaut
This should be a Perma-Ban if you’re wrong
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:09 pm to Hamma1122
quote:
Hamma1122
quote:
Could take Laura’s track
Go shite in your hand
Posted on 10/6/20 at 1:10 pm to Duke
Euro so far is further north and stronger. Can't tell much of east vs west with the 24hr gaps. If there is any change to that, it isn't much.
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