Deep South Christmas COLD

rds must be busy, but we've got to have a separate thread now.

After beginning the first half of December a whopping 13.2 degrees above average, it felt like a pattern switch had to happen. Well, it is!

A high pressure system is setting up around Greenland that will provide some classic blocking thus allowing the jet stream to dip well into the lower 48. This is known as -NAO or simply, Greenland blocking. Seen in the picture below, -NAO typically means a cold UK as well, which is also happening right now. London has recently experienced highs below freezing (pretty rare).

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Additionally, cold weather fans are hoping for a ridge to develop near the Pacific Northwest, thus forcing cold air into the middle and eastern half of the US.

For a classic example of blocking, see January through March of 2010. Wow, what a cold year that was. Trees were bare halfway through April!
In January, Baton Rouge had twelve consecutive mornings below freezing, and the month of February was 10.1 degrees below average.

I make no promises for the rest of this winter, but it looks like we'll get a cold shot from 12/22 to 12/28.

This map from the latest GFS ensemble shows the cold entering the lower 48 on 22 December:



There is good agreement on the cold air between the GFS, Euro, and the Canadian, with the Canadian showing temps as low as 16 around Baton Rouge.

Will we get moisture for snow? I'll leave this thread to the experts at this point.

Lastly, I find this info to be quite helpful:

Guess I better wrap my pipes this weekend but otherwise bring it on. I like it to be cold this time of year.

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Somehow this will change and it’ll be 78 and muggy…

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I don't see that happening. rds dc has been sold on this cold for about a week, and Duke added this as early as 12/9:

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Whats not to be sold on for the southern cold snap toward Christmas.

Ridge over Alaska. Still on a -NAO. -AO also inbound (look at dem titties on the image above ya). All lined up to uncork that Arctic air, pump it into the US, and keep it generally boxed in with the blocking.

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34 degrees with freezing rain

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Is this a joke

The good thing about this system is sleet and freezing rain seems unlikely. With the deep column of cold air, it'll be rain, snow, or rain and snow.

It can snow at 34+ down here if that column of cold extends far enough to the surface. I've seen it (2002 and 2008)

By joke I meant that freezing rain is not possible at 34°. Only rain, sleet, and snow are.

Leave my 65 degree days and sunny alone. I don’t need southern winter of 45 degrees, 100% humidity, overcast with a 15 mph wind out of the north. frick all that shite.

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If you are gonna be gone for a week or more I would say yes. Make sure you drain all of the lines and the water heater as well.

Indeed! That rumble, the ground fricking shook as the lights flickered. Lived in Westminster at the time.

Locking in my prediction on page 1

Christmas eve snow 2-7” for SELA

11°- Coldest temp we’ll see in SELA

2 days of below freezing (for highs)

I’m fine with the cold. Just want it to stay dry. Too much travel happening.

All that’s pretty bold!
Baton Rouge coldest temp: 20°
Somewhere below I-20 will get 2.5”
Lowest high temp for BR: 34°