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Message
daily update: Italy new case growth rate is falling
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:28 pm
LINK
new cases rise from 86,500 to 92,474
death toll rises from 9134 to 10,023
growth rate last 3 days
8.3%-->7.4%-->6.9%
new cases rise from 86,500 to 92,474
death toll rises from 9134 to 10,023
growth rate last 3 days
8.3%-->7.4%-->6.9%
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 12:29 pm
8
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:29 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
They probably can't get as many tests done if they are overwhelmed.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:29 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
No it isn't. Testing is merely catching up.
Realistically without simultaneously testing the entire population daily, there is no way to know that number.
Realistically without simultaneously testing the entire population daily, there is no way to know that number.
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:31 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
weren't you melting about the rate "surging" just yesterday? 
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:34 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I starting to get concerned the lockdowns are not working in Italy.
Median incubation period is 5 days.
Median time from onset to death is 8 days.
Deaths should have already peaked, but they are still rising.
The lockdowns have gone on for 19 days now.
Median incubation period is 5 days.
Median time from onset to death is 8 days.
Deaths should have already peaked, but they are still rising.
The lockdowns have gone on for 19 days now.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:37 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
889 deaths still a monster number.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:41 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
There was a video of the Chinese red Cross vp was touring Italy and said that what they were doing did not deserve to be called lockdown.
Basically said they weren't doing much. I think Italy started more extreme measures but it wasn't long ago
Basically said they weren't doing much. I think Italy started more extreme measures but it wasn't long ago
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:43 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
touring Italy and said that what they were doing did not deserve to be called lockdown.
Basically said they weren't doing much.
So... basically what we are doing... got cha.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:43 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
Chinese red Cross vp
Maybe Mr. Sun needs to worry about his own country
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:44 pm to NATidefan
Probably
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:45 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Italy new case growth rate is falling
I mean, thats going to happen once the entire population has already had it
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:54 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
I starting to get concerned the lockdowns are not working in Italy.
The lockdowns seemed to have worked extremely well to keep it from spreading across all of Italy.
Most stats we see are compiled for all of Italy whereas the actual cases are 4 completely devastated northern regions like Lombardia (Milano) around 40K tested whereas regions from the center south are about like the rest of northern Europe, like Lazio (Roma) has around 2k tested.
But, yes, it's concerning that deaths in the regions in the north are still coming in such high numbers.
I wonder if that has to do with a high death rate of people who would need long 10 day+ time in ICU/ respirators.
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 1:35 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Deaths down a little but still almost 900 in a day. Let’s hope that number keeps sinking.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 1:40 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
the only number which matters is deaths
Posted on 3/28/20 at 1:44 pm to rocket31
quote:
the only number which matters is deaths
Deaths are a lagging indicator
Posted on 3/28/20 at 1:48 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
The average time of death from catching the disease is over 18 days. Which is right where we’re at this. The next 4-5 days should be the peak and then the numbers should start to fall.
All of these numbers are basically telling the story from three weeks ago. Even positive tests, between incubation of disease, period of time for symptoms to get bad enough to warrant a test, and time for testing results, you’re talking over two weeks from the person actually catching the disease.
Italy’s first hardcore lockdown was Milan 19 days ago. They have since instituted even more severe measures. People also didn’t take the lockdown that seriously in the first week or so. Add in multigenerational living where the disease can still spread even among quarantiners.
I know it’s counter intuitive, but you can’t really determine the effectiveness of quarantine, social distancing, etc measures until about a month after they’re put in place
All of these numbers are basically telling the story from three weeks ago. Even positive tests, between incubation of disease, period of time for symptoms to get bad enough to warrant a test, and time for testing results, you’re talking over two weeks from the person actually catching the disease.
Italy’s first hardcore lockdown was Milan 19 days ago. They have since instituted even more severe measures. People also didn’t take the lockdown that seriously in the first week or so. Add in multigenerational living where the disease can still spread even among quarantiners.
I know it’s counter intuitive, but you can’t really determine the effectiveness of quarantine, social distancing, etc measures until about a month after they’re put in place
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 1:58 pm
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