Started By
Message

re: Covid Tests have 30% failure rate

Posted on 4/10/20 at 11:50 pm to
Posted by TutHillTiger
Mississippi Alabama
Member since Sep 2010
43700 posts
Posted on 4/10/20 at 11:50 pm to
Do essentially we have around 20,000 deaths if you take the number reported and round up for gross underreporting of cases. This would indicate that we have about 2 million people that have or have had Covid 19.
Posted by prplhze2000
Parts Unknown
Member since Jan 2007
51467 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 12:25 am to
Cotton swabs give a lot of false negatives
Posted by MrWalkingMan
31st Parallel North
Member since Aug 2010
6400 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 12:44 am to
Higher specificity means a test has a better chance to "rule in" a diagnosis. Higher sensitivity means a test has a better chance to "rule out" a diagnosis.

Though many of the tests in use have higher specificity than sensitivity, most are still at or above 90% for both metrics. But you dont have to take my word for it...

Serology-based tests for COVID-19
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
82056 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 12:55 am to
quote:

Covid Tests have 30% failure rate
71% of stats are made up on the spot 64% of the time
Posted by Sun God
Member since Jul 2009
44874 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 12:58 am to
Posted by Nynna11
Member since Jul 2012
480 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 12:59 am to
quote:

bullshite. I sell both the PCR and antibodies test. Both are in the 99%


My co-worker, who is also a nurse was symptomatic and her first two tests were negative and the third positive. Her MD was not convinced that the negatives were accurate and began treating her for Covid.
Posted by Tiger2287
Member since Jan 2016
398 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:04 am to
quote:

Doctors said afterward that she still almost certainly had it and we were to behave and treat her as if she did. 



Yeah my doctor told me the same thing. But I sat in my bedroom for a week popping tylenol. In the mean time what was wrong with me was that my liver was failing and I had double pneumonia.
Doctors need to stop swinging that " it must be corona, go home and treat it like it is" gargan. It almost cost me my life. Luckly it was just a week in the hospital.
Posted by AMS
Member since Apr 2016
6498 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:06 am to
quote:

She was tested twice. Came back negative both times


quote:

has a 30% failure rate


quote:

There is no doubt she has the virus.


Statistically there is a 91% chance she does not have the virus. It’s much more likely she has another random URI and you and her are being super dramatic, LOOK AT MEEE!!
Posted by BROpaneTANK
Mandeville
Member since Apr 2010
2854 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:14 am to
Honestly doesn’t seem too far fetched. We’re at a very low percentage of tests coming back positive but only testing people that fit right criteria, and clearly feel like they have it. So stands to reason more should be positive.
Posted by Jinglebob
Member since Jan 2020
948 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 2:02 am to
Silver lining: the mortality rate is 30% lower than reported.
Posted by wm72
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2010
7798 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 2:13 am to
quote:

Honestly doesn’t seem too far fetched. We’re at a very low percentage of tests coming back positive but only testing people that fit right criteria, and clearly feel like they have it. So stands to reason more should be positive.



Yeah, this is what I can not understand.

I'm in NY which I know may be extreme but also represents a big chunk of stats and it has been extremely difficult to get tested here from anyone I've talked to that's tried.

Almost every person I know who thinks/thought they had it -- and I mean even people specifically quarantined by the health department for close exposure to a positive case who then got sick with all symptoms-- are basically being told in no uncertain terms to NOT go out to get tested.

That makes it very hard to figure out where all these people testing negative tests are coming from.

In the big picture, it's good news that such a small percentage are getting tested but it really makes it hard to understand how all these negatives slip through the labyrinth one must navigate to get a test.

Maybe there's just a ton of people paying private doctors to get first in line for tests without much sign they have it?
Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
20512 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 3:05 am to
quote:

Maybe there's just a ton of people paying private doctors to get first in line for tests without much sign they have it?



Correct, classic nepotism. Tons of idiots are wanting friends and family to be tested because they ‘have to know if they have Covid’ when in reality it absolutely doesn’t matter.

There’s absolutely no excuse to be running something like 75% negative on the test results. 3 of 4 people don’t have it and we are supposedly screening out many?
Posted by Barstools
Atlanta
Member since Jan 2016
9438 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 3:42 am to
Bull shite.

How do they know they have it if they havent tested positive.

This is all bullshite and should be deleted for spreading false information.
This post was edited on 4/11/20 at 5:49 am
Posted by Evolved Simian
Bushwood Country Club
Member since Sep 2010
20611 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 5:03 am to
quote:

They said the test has a 30% failure rate


That information was released this week and based on early Chinese tests. It is absolutely not relevant to now.

A. Everybody knew the Chinese tests were shite. The ones they sent to Spain had almost a 70% failure rate.

B. We don't use the fricking chinese tests. Roche, Abbot, and other labs are much better than any fricking thing that comes out of China.
Posted by Evolved Simian
Bushwood Country Club
Member since Sep 2010
20611 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 5:05 am to
quote:

quote:
Covid Tests have 30% failure rate
Tests dont have a "failure rate". They have a specificity and sensitivity.
quote:
She was tested twice. Came back negative both times. There is no doubt she has the virus.
I'd say 2 negative tests would mean there is definitely some doubt
quote:
Sent home to quarantine because a patient, maternity ward, was asymptomatic.

So she was sent home because a patient had no symptoms?



This entire post makes OP sound dumb.
Posted by TulaneLSU
Member since Aug 2003
Member since Dec 2007
13298 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 5:19 am to
LSUsaint,

Can you please discuss the antibody test? Do you have any studies you could link which show antibody activity to covid19? In particular I would love to see a graph showing IgM and IgG numbers on a time axis from infection onward.

Are antibodies produced within the first week? If so why is that response of the humoral immune system so much more rapid than that to other virus like hepatitis B?

Thank you,
TulaneLSU

P.S. I have it on good authority that the sensitivity of our testing is around 99% assuming a good sample is obtained by the person who swabs the patient. However, I have not seen any studies which support this high number. But I trust my source for that number.

On the matter of mass testing, I believe widespread testing is quite important in a free world because the sooner a person knows he or she is positive the sooner that person can strictly quarantine for at least two weeks. He can also sterilize everything to which he or she has come in contact.

I was thinking the other day that before Mother, Uncle and family return from the Mississippi compound, I want to ensure I do not and did not have the virus. If I do or did, I will need to clean the entire house in a way that I wouldn’t otherwise.
This post was edited on 4/11/20 at 5:28 am
Posted by ksayetiger
Centenary Gents
Member since Jul 2007
68362 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 5:25 am to
quote:

Both are in the 99%



quote:

I sell




typical salesman


but, if done correctly, pcr is pretty damn accurate. lots of chance for human error in my experience with pcr.
This post was edited on 4/11/20 at 5:26 am
Posted by ZULU
Member since Sep 2009
1009 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 5:44 am to
Swan
Posted by FAP SAM
Member since Sep 2014
2878 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 7:22 am to
quote:

The entire OP's post makes OP sound dumb

FIFY
Posted by Shaun176
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2008
2471 posts
Posted on 4/11/20 at 7:47 am to
quote:

Do essentially we have around 20,000 deaths if you take the number reported and round up for gross underreporting of cases. This would indicate that we have about 2 million people that have or have had Covid 19.


There have been multiple studies from around the world that have found cases have under reported by between 7 and 25 times depending on the availability of testing.
first pageprev pagePage 2 of 3Next pagelast page

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitterInstagram