re: Cost to buy = $2,700/month. Cost to rent = $1,850/month

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Back them, we and all our friends were buying 1300-1500 square foot homes that were 20 plus years old.

For all intents and purposes, these don't exist today.

If they do, it's in a terrible area of town and a potentially big loss.

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That's not true where I live and I bet it's not in other places as well. Of course, if you want the best schools and the nicest neighborhoods, you will pay a premium. I can think of multiple neighborhoods in the Cypress, TX area that are older...building in the 50s and 60s where the houses are smaller and obviously not as nice. They have decent schools, but not the absolute best in the area. They are not crime infested hoods. But they mostly have older people living in them and in addition, there are quite a few rent houses. I would live there. I might not live there with a high school or middle school kid. I'd even live there with an elementary school kid.

There are also older neighborhoods near recently gentrified areas. They also are borderline. However, I consider all these places "starter" homes. It's not expected that you'll be there in 5-7 years when your kids are in school. They are simply an entry into the market.

I've seen a few of my son's friends by these. These guys bought them while they were single. They were cheaper and not as nice. But they have gone up in value.

A really lot of new home buyers are not willing to do this. A lot also don't want fixer uppers. You cannot have it all, but I find that a lot of people now expect to do so.

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There are pros to renting vs. buying:
1. Maintenance. You aren't forking out $15k for a brand new A/C unit when the one in your apartment goes out. Appliances are generally newer and will also be upgraded if something goes out, at the expense of the landlord.
2. Basic upkeep of the house (minor fixes, lawncare, etc.) are generally paid by the landlord.

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Be honest.
Who is really paying for these things?

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You are not having to worry about resale on your "investment" because you can search for a new property in the future.

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There are definitely acquisition and unloading expenses with buying/selling.

So a stone that gathers no moss will definitely benefit from renting.

But there are 1000s of stories of people buying a home and having tens of thousands of dollars of equity (even on top of those expenses) within 2 years.

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Rates are dog shite right now. Why would someone lock into a 7%+ interest rate for the foreseeable future? You can rent now, take a hit on equity, and make it back later on. There's no reason to rush into buying a house, especially when value and interest rates are bound to drop.

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You aren't wrong.
But you are talking about timing the market.
It isn't that easy.
How many people kept money on the sidelines the past 15 years and waited too long to get back in the game. It isn't any different with real estate.

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This gets overstated way too much regarding 2006-2009.

Every loan was at risk of foreclosure back then because households were severely unemployed or underemployed.

It doesn't matter if you put 20% down-payment, had an 800 credit score, and did a Fannie loan... if you are unemployed/underemployed for a year, the bills are going to get sketchy and that includes the home loan.

So long as employment is strong, there won't be a significant burst to the housing bubble. But if employment hits a profound change, inflation and all of the 2 working households are going to feel the hurt that much quicker this time.

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People like you and me have seen this movie before. We warn them, they don't listen. They mock us. But you and me, we know. We are prepared.

Ultimately, if housing is unaffordable it is the boomers' fault. If the housing market crashes, it's also boomers' fault.

Nobody wants personal responsibility. I don't want personal responsibility. But it is a fact of life.

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The cost of land and development doesn't really allow for developers to do much in the size range anymore. I built a 14-lot subdivision prior to 2008 where I built 1400 sq ft homes. No way would that be possible today and be as profitable as it was then. Codes concerning roads, drainage, etc have all raised the cost of development.

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This is the biggest issue one mentions anymore. There’s just not a middle class home construction market anymore. You can’t get a nice 2,500 SF home. The only thing that’s built are cheap townhomes and large premium homes. It’s totally stratified the home market IMO.

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Ultimately, if housing is unaffordable it is the boomers' fault. If the housing market crashes, it's also boomers' fault.

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Well the Boomers are the generation who have been/are in power manipulating the levers on the economy causing all of this.

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Nobody wants personal responsibility.

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Nobody wants to admit when they've gotten lucky and have been given advantages in addition to their personal responsibility, either, it seems.

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If you're looking at new construction in the 1300-1500 square foot range, and it's not in a hyper urban area, it's likely a section 8 development.

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But they mostly have older people living in them and in addition, there are quite a few rent houses.

Guess what is going to happen over the next 10-20 years.

You're literally posting all the warning signs. Hence my comment on the potential for a big loss.

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If people were willing to buy these houses instead of expecting new construction...but they aren't. I see these houses for sale. They take longer to sell because everyone wants the new and pretty. Why does everyone need new construction? Answer...they don't!

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Nobody wants personal responsibility

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my biggest financial mistake was not buying a house while I was in middle school

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I see these houses for sale. They take longer to sell because everyone wants the new and pretty

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In all likelihood they have a ton of deferred repairs and maintenance needed while not being all that much cheaper than the “new construction”

Queue the worn out discussion about how no one these days is willing to put in the sweat equity on nights and weekends to turn a piece of shite into a decent place.

All the older 1200 sq ft ranch homes in hip in-city neighborhoods aren't being bought up by boomers, they are being bought and gentrified by older mill's with money. But it's still the boomers' fault that you can't live in the house you want to live in.