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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 1/28/20 at 2:10 pm to TomTheGhost
Posted on 1/28/20 at 2:10 pm to TomTheGhost
Dropped the last 7 days of reports in mainland China into an exponential regression calculator:
y=272.157e^(.3926*x); y = confirmed cases, x = day where 1 = January 21st, the first day China started reporting cases countrywide rather than simply Wuhan. The mean error would have been 4.7%, the maximum error would have been 8.4%. That formula would predict the mainland Chinese cases to grow to 6,292 cases, +/- 529 cases.
I'd estimate 5,763 to 6,821 cases in China when we get the next update.
y=272.157e^(.3926*x); y = confirmed cases, x = day where 1 = January 21st, the first day China started reporting cases countrywide rather than simply Wuhan. The mean error would have been 4.7%, the maximum error would have been 8.4%. That formula would predict the mainland Chinese cases to grow to 6,292 cases, +/- 529 cases.
I'd estimate 5,763 to 6,821 cases in China when we get the next update.
This post was edited on 1/28/20 at 2:11 pm
4
Posted on 1/28/20 at 2:15 pm to slackster
It's also been pointed out on here, as well as, media that China more than likely are following models and not accurately reporting. Good regression and prediction baw.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 2:21 pm to TomTheGhost
Seems like our government is saying they are more transparent than with SARS. We will find out soon enough but I am hoping China doesn't want to be embarrassed globally by this and report way off figures that they cannot hide for more than a week or two.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 2:30 pm to slackster
What time do the updates typically come out?
Posted on 1/28/20 at 2:31 pm to TigerTatorTots
Not till later tonight here. The morning is upon them soon, then a few hours after that I imagine.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 2:34 pm to stout
quote:
She just doesn't want to risk getting sick over there with questionable health care options at best.
Even if she didn't get sick, getting stuck over there in a quarantine or travel restriction would absolutely suck.
Definitely not worth the risk.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 2:35 pm to slackster
quote:
I'd estimate 5,763 to 6,821 cases in China when we get the next update.
Bruh, are you seriously trying this hard to be an anti doomsdayer? I'm not a doomsdayer at all, but China is building a 1,000 bed hospital in 10 days in a city of 11 million people. I don't know how many hospital beds they have already, but if this was truly only 6,000 cases they sure as shite wouldn't build a new hospital in a city of 11 million.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 2:40 pm to baldona
Easy killer.
He is just plugging numbers into a regression model. Its basic stats.
He is just plugging numbers into a regression model. Its basic stats.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 2:55 pm to baldona
It's not hospital like you think. It's a facility, more than likely not permanent, for this incident to organize a bit better.
I will say that with their capabilities and needing more shows they know that they need the extra assets and true numbers are off.
I will say that with their capabilities and needing more shows they know that they need the extra assets and true numbers are off.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 2:56 pm to BallsEleven
quote:
Easy killer.
He is just plugging numbers into a regression model. Its basic stats.
And we all know stats are extremely easy to skew and that he has been doing everything possible to say this is a nothingburger. I don't have a clue how many are sick, none. But there's something to this, you don't shut down roads with truckloads of dirt and build a hospital in 10 days for 6,000 sick people in a city the size of NYC.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 2:57 pm to baldona
quote:
Bruh, are you seriously trying this hard to be an anti doomsdayer? I'm not a doomsdayer at all, but China is building a 1,000 bed hospital in 10 days in a city of 11 million people. I don't know how many hospital beds they have already, but if this was truly only 6,000 cases they sure as shite wouldn't build a new hospital in a city of 11 million.
He means lab confirmed.
Not overall. The best estimates of symptomatic are probably around 30k and 50k infected.
But most of those are staying at home, so difficult to validate. So he is keeping it to the verifiable numbers to limit stacking approximation upon approximation.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 2:57 pm to TomTheGhost
quote:
It's not hospital like you think. It's a facility, more than likely not permanent, for this incident to organize a bit better.
Absolutely, no I've seen the pictures and I get it. But still, what they are doing is like FEMA after Katrina. Its serious government work here.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 2:58 pm to baldona
quote:
And we all know stats are extremely easy to skew and that he has been doing everything possible to say this is a nothingburger.
His last one over estimated the cases
Posted on 1/28/20 at 2:59 pm to baldona
quote:
And we all know stats are extremely easy to skew
Except what he posted....wasn’t stats?
Not really. And how do you think he is skewing them?
He is literally just drawing a line.
This post was edited on 1/28/20 at 3:04 pm
Posted on 1/28/20 at 3:00 pm to BallsEleven
Shhhhhhhh
Posted on 1/28/20 at 3:02 pm to baldona
quote:
he has been doing everything possible to say this is a nothingburger
It probably is a nothing burger. But, what he and a few others in this discussion fail to acknowledge is:
Why is many panicking?
The reason why many are panicking is because when one of this viruses becomes 10x worse than SARS, MERS or Novel Corona we are screwed. We have no system in place to save us. That uncertainty is what is making so many emotional about this.
I will post this link again: Sobering Points
Slackster can be right a million times about these Viruses. But, being wrong once means Extinction.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 3:07 pm to lsu13lsu
Posted on 1/28/20 at 3:08 pm to lsu13lsu
quote:
It probably is a nothing burger. But, what he and a few others in this discussion fail to acknowledge is:
Why is many panicking?
Literally no one is really panicking outside of twitter or reporters trying to have that big hot take.
The scientists IN HK are saying the situation warrants high levels of attention but they don’t consider the matter grave.
It was discussed earlier in the thread (which has been echoed elsewhere) that the reaction was 90% optics by the Chinese government, not because of the situation and certainly not because they care about their people. History supports that notion, and given time it is likely the outcome will support it too.
Hell, Mexico didn’t do this stuff when they had people in the prime of their lives dropping dead from Swine flu.
Treating this seriously doesn’t equate to it being prudent to run around screaming that there are a quarter million infected and thousands dead like some are doing.
This post was edited on 1/28/20 at 3:12 pm
Posted on 1/28/20 at 3:13 pm to lsu13lsu
quote:
Slackster can be right a million times about these Viruses. But, being wrong once means Extinction
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