re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

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New reports showing death toll to rise to 388 tomorrow.

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Where did you see this?

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The data hk used was from within and outside China. They concluded China has vastly underestimated total number of cases.

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Except that was never said or compared to. YOU made that statement.

Also, I don’t think I’ve seen any “estimates” as you would define it from an official source. The ones I have seen, from Chinese scientists, had actually over estimated total number cases.

In any case, I strongly suspect what I typed earlier applies:

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Because people are stupid and lots of people are jumping to conclusions (and reporting on them) without understanding what they are reading.

For instance: the assumption that lab confirmed cases are what the government is claiming is the degree of the spread. (The estimated total infected) number was at 44k yesterday. That’s open data. And (the difference between lab confirmed and total estimate) isn’t evidence of China “lying”

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Parentheticals are replacing unclear pronouns out of context.

Agree.

They’ve only reported lab confirmed cases. In ANY epidemic situation like this, those numbers are going to lag behind reality on the ground.

You need to look at actions taken to get a sense of severity. Locking down cities containing 50 million people does not happen if the numbers are not much higher on the ground than whats happening in labs. Their actions taken make it pretty clear that this is serious, and their health officials have confirmed same in their press conferences.

ETA: The HK officials even stated as much.

Copied from r/c_f:

Shorthand summary of CDC press conference:

Speakers are:
Alex Azar, US Secretary of Health & Human Services
Robert Redfield, Director of CDC
Nancy Messonier, CDC Center For Immunization & Respiratory Diseases
Tony Fauci, Nat’l Institute Of Allergy & Infectious Disease
STATEMENTS TO PRESS (extremely basic, you can skip)

AZAR, HHS : - 5 cases in USA - Americans should not worry for their own safety. - Taking experience from MERS, SARS, Avian Flu - Uncertain “denominator” (true number of infections): early cases are naturally the most severe, which skews our understanding - Still determining the real R0, asymptomatic transmission, incubation period, and clinical severity - Our method: identify cases, track contacts. - Assess carefully if evidence merits travel restrictions - Assessing HHS strategic national stockpile - Assessing repatriation of US nationals overseas - Assesssing possibility for vaccines, therapeutics - Travel advisory for China
REDFIELD, CDC: - screening will expand from 5 to 20 airports - thoughts and prayers - Avoid unnecessary China travel - Follow CDC guidance (wash hands!) - “Right now there is no spread of this virus in our communities here at home. This is why our current assessment is that the immediate health risk to the American public is low.”
MESSONIER, CDC: - Contact tracing is underway for all 5 patients. - Contacts are watched for multiple days, and tested if they develop symptoms.
FAUCI, NIAID: - Diagnostics: CDC has developed a RAPID diagnostic & working on next gen, & distribution - No proven therapy for NCoV-2019. Ongoing studies. There could be effective antiviral drugs or monoclonal antibodies - unproven. - Vaccine development underway (messenger-RNA method).
QUESTIONS FROM PRESS

Q: asymptomatic transmission?
MESSONIER: We have no evidence of H2H in USA. We’re watching closely. Aware of Chinese reports of asymptomatic transmission.
Q: time from infection to positive viral test?
MESSONIER: close contacts are tested multiple times. Can be tested negative in very early incubation. Our PCR test is only the first, “rapid response” test and we’re working on others.
Q: travel restrictions from China?
AZAR: Nothing off table, we are monitoring. Need raw data.
Q: CDC team is being sent to China?
AZAR: Hope China accepts offer. In discussions with Minister Ma.
REDFIELD: Do have embedded CDC office in China. Would like to add personnel in pursuit of finding out epediemologically critical questions - incubation period, asymptotic infectivity, spectrum of severity.
Q: Will Trump appoint coronavirus czar?
AZAR: that’s my day job.
Q: Taiwan excluded from WHO - at risk from not getting updates?
AZAR: this is not a political matter, US shares information with Taiwan.
Q: What transparency is needed from China now?
AZAR: Already much better than SARS, commend Chinese counterparts. We want more CDC people in China. We want viral isolates. Excellent that China put genetic code online.
Q: Wet markets? After SARS, MERS, this - are wet markets a coronovirus facilitator?
REDFIELD: We don’t exactly know yet the species jump (where, how) for NCoV-2019. It does seem different in many respects from MERS, SARS. Can’t speculate.
Q: Declare public health emergency?
AZAR: Will invoke when necessary - right now only 5 cases in USA, all direct from Wuhan, no H2H.
Q: when will airport screenings start?
MESSONIER: Already had 5 screening airports, now going to 20. In addition to screening for symptoms, we are passing out information so they know to seek care if they become symptomatic.
Q: embassy plane will be quarantined?
AZAR: Physicians on flight. All passengers screened. We’ll take whatever evidence based measures are necessary.
Q: Rapid diagnostic test - routine screen? [they misunderstood something I think]
MESSONIER: No, I need to clarify, this is a PCR test. Much more sensitive than a rapid flu test. Moving as quickly as possible to make it available more locally.
Q: Confidence this still be contained inside China?
AZAR: Rapidly spreading inside China.
REDFIELD: Containment and mitigation are mixed/parallel.
Q: Masks running out?
AZAR: Unnecessary. Risk to any individual American is extremely low. We are taking aggressive action.
Q: Role for President? Confidence? [pretty clearly trying to turn it into a Trump headline]
AZAR: [bunts]. The unelected/nonpartisan/scientific part of government is working hard on this.
Q: are you now screening ALL Chinese passengers?
AZAR: First 5 airports were for covering the major travel routes from Wuhan. Expansion to 20 - Wuhan no longer has flights to USA - covers wider.
MESSONIER: Screening is only one part of a layered approach. When we inform asymptomatic people they are at risk, they self-report later symptoms.
Q: WHO says evacuation of Americans unnnecessary. Do you trust WHO & China?
AZAR: We will take any action we believe necessary to protect Americans. Confident in WHO.
Q: Again: contagious before symptoms?
REDFIELD: Chinese have reported this. CDC has not been given chance to review their data. Limited experience of 5 US cases.
FAUCI: To just add one thing that seems to get lost in that question: we would really like to see the [PRC] data because if there is asymptomatic transmission it impacts certain policies regarding screening etcetera. But the one thing historically people need to realize, even if there is some asymptomatic transmission - in all the history of respiratory borne viruses of any type, asymptomatic transmission has never been the driver of outbreaks, even if there’s a rare asymptomatic person that might transit, an epidemic is not driven by asymptomatic carriers.
I transcribed the full Fauci answer because it seemed important/new info.
Q: WHO just announced China will let in teams of international experts!
REDFIELD: delighted.
Q: funding from Congress?
AZAR: Under Satuday declaration, $105m already working with OMB. Will definitely ask Congress if we need more.

I think the funding is to send US teams, gear and lab support. Not a check to China.

At least I hope not.

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*4% of people who seek medical treatment, much of which is hospitalization.

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Agree with the general point you are making. However; HK presser said they are seeing a 14% mortality rate among hospitalized.

Again, as you point out that is not the actual mortality rate. Just the mortality rate for the more severe cases. Overall rate will be much lower.

My only point is we really dont know yet. Spanish Flu was very mild at first too, until a mutation and a second wave spread around October of that year (1918). The mutated second wave is why everyone has heard of the Spanish Flu 100+ years later.

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I think the funding is to send US teams, gear and lab support. Not a check to China.

At least I hope not.

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Just for a heads up. Even US health officials said this morning in DC they dont believe the numbers and were turned down to go there. Literally watched the press about 2 hours ago.

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My only point is we really dont know yet. Spanish Flu was very mild at first too, until a mutation and a second wave spread around October of that year (1918). The mutated second wave is why everyone has heard of the Spanish Flu 100+ years later.

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Correct, we don't know.

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Agree with the general point you are making. However; HK presser said they are seeing a 14% mortality rate among hospitalized.

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Wonder where they're getting that? There have been no deaths in HK from what I can tell. I'd assume they're looking at Chinese numbers to draw that conclusion?

For what it's worth, since 2010, flu hospitalizations in the US have a mortality rate between 7.5-12.5%. It's a worthwhile thing to note for a baseline.

Due to not being there, asked not to come and lastly suspicion of number accuracy