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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:58 am to
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
184214 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:58 am to
quote:

I am starting to come around to the idea that if we go into shutting down all nonessential businesses for longer than 2-4 weeks, the impacts to the jobs/financial viability of 70% of the population will be so severe that it will trigger a result much worse than an additional 500k deaths of mostly 80+ yo.



If prolonged they say that a 20% unemployment rate will be reached very easily. The line is from a movie (The Big Short which tried to be pretty accurate) but you can google and see that research supports it even if the numbers from the movie aren't 100% accurate. It's suggested that for every 1% uptick in unemployment an additional 40K deaths for the year can be traced back to it.
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:59 am to
20% unemployment is catastrophic and would force an economic reorganization. america as we know it would be gone
Posted by Funky Tide 8
Bayou Chico
Member since Feb 2009
57240 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:59 am to
I don't claim to know more about the disease than the people that wrote that report, but going by where we are now, and what we've seen as far as U.S. cases/deaths/cruise ship, and Korea case studies, how in the world can those numbers possibly be feasible?
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 10:00 am
Posted by Centinel
Idaho
Member since Sep 2016
46636 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:00 am to
quote:

I don't claim to know more about the disease than the people that wrote that report, but going by where we are now, and what we've seen as far as cases/deaths/cruise ship, and Korea case studies, how in the world can those numbers possibly be feasible?


Facts my man. Facts. I don't really have context, but I have facts.

Posted by Klark Kent
Houston via BR
Member since Jan 2008
75700 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:01 am to
that is my more pressing concern at this point as well
Posted by Mr Perfect
Member since Mar 2010
17836 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:01 am to
quote:

what we've seen as far as cases/deaths/cruise ship, and Korea case studies, how in the world can those numbers possibly be feasible?


I do agree with you. it doesn't seem possible but I still think it's worthwhile to post what a group of epidemiologists says
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
184214 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:02 am to
quote:

says the guy who says it would be over in two weeks



I said that we are overreacting to it and my stance hasn't changed. I have said the overreaction will do more damage than the virus. I even said it will be 90 to 120 days before we are no longer dealing with it directly.

We will be dealing with the fallout of the panic for much longer.

Stout on 3/8

quote:

I said last night this thing will be a distant memory in 90 days. I don't claim to be a newly anointed disease expert like many here now are but as warmer weather moves in this thing will slow down so maybe 120 days or so? Either way, the hype is ridiculous.

I read something the other day that pointed out that the amount of social media users on apps has grown into the billions vs millions since H1N1 and linked a lot of the panic over COVID vs H1N1 to people like we see on the OT spreading disinformation. I think it's a great point.

Be concerned? Sure. The amount of panic and fist fighting over toilet paper is stupid, though.


You accuse others here as lying and here you are lying yourself, hypocrite.
Posted by bendellee
Member since Aug 2006
2435 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:03 am to
46 new cases overnight, but that’s from only 66 tests.
Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
5641 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:03 am to
quote:

From what I can tell, there's little basis for the ibuprofen rumor, though

quote:

Then why the hell are you spreading it, you fricking twat?



What's wrong with people giving what information they have? If Ibuprofen potentially poses a risk, why not say so and let others decide for themselves.

UK Government advises people take paracetamol instead of ibuprofen to treat symptoms of coronavirus

quote:

Speaking before the Health and Social Care Committee, Sir Patrick said: “The ibuprofen example – it may or may not be right, I don’t know – but the sensible thing to do would be to say don’t take it at the moment, take something else – paracetamol or something.”


quote:

The latest information adds that people who have been told by their doctor to take ibuprofen, or other non-steroidal anti-inflammatories (NSAIDs), should not stop taking their medication unless told by their doctor.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 10:07 am
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
184214 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:04 am to
quote:

20% unemployment is catastrophic and would force an economic reorganization. america as we know it would be gone




Coronavirus: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

quote:

WASHINGTON — Trump administration officials warned Senate Republicans on Tuesday that the coronavirus outbreak in the United States could cause the unemployment rate to reach 20 percent, according to two sources familiar with the discussion.
Posted by Large Farva
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2013
8742 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:04 am to
Does anyone know what day Louisiana health department began updating the site with test results? I’m curious how long it’s been from the first confirmed case to today with the 240th confirmed case.
Posted by CivilTiger83
Member since Dec 2017
2525 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:04 am to
There are two major factors when assessing the mortality or case fatality rate for COVID-19.

A) Age group

B) Number of critical cases in an area.

If you are not in the high risk age group in an area that is not overrun, it's probably not that far off of H1N1 or a bad flu as far as overall risk.

On the other end, Italy and Wuhan show that it can easily be in the 10% or greater range in overrun areas for people over 70.

The overall average is going to poorly reflect the expected impact to different areas/countries.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40251 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:05 am to
How are they defining recoveries and who/how is it being tracked? Follow up phone call??
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 10:06 am
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
184214 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:06 am to
quote:

How are they defining recoveries


Two negative tests 24 hours apart
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:06 am to
last time we had unemployment like that was the great depression (around 24%). we got social security out of it.

I bet we get some new bullshite nannystate thing to pay for out of this one.
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
184214 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:06 am to
quote:

I bet we get some new bullshite nannystate thing to pay for out of this one.





UBI will be the result
Posted by UpToPar
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2008
23048 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:07 am to
quote:

712 got infected on the diamond princess


7 are dead with another 14 in critical care.


The average age of the passengers on the cruise was 58. The average age of US citizens is 38.

quote:

8413 infected in SK. 84 dead.


Although SK's testing has been stringent, it's still reasonable to assume that many asymptomatic and mild cases have gone untested.
Posted by LNCHBOX
70448
Member since Jun 2009
89335 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:07 am to
quote:

nothing wrong with that
what is wrong is your retard arse dropping in to the thread once every few hours with your "tried to tell them Gucci" "stop posting lies" bullshite that brings literally nothing to the thread.

However, you are the dumbass that said it was a FACT 1.6 million Americans will die from this by March of next year. You have brought zero.actual information to this thread. You have zero room to act high any mighty, yet you constantly come back to show your arse. For at least the 5th time, go away dummy.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 10:20 am
Posted by threeputtforbogie
Addison, TX
Member since Sep 2017
1012 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:08 am to
Do you believe the numbers out of China? Do you believe the numbers out of Africa? All we can definitively say is that 200,000 is the minimum number of cases. Plus, that's a lagging indicator of infections. Total deaths will lag even more behind that.
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
88269 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:09 am to
Just checking in to let y’all know that covid has not killed me.
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