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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:17 am to Volvagia
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:17 am to Volvagia
That's gotta be one of the dumbest takes in here.
We shouldn't count just lab confirmed cases because China isn't actually reporting the numbers but we can totally count the confirmed fatalities because China is definitely getting that number right.
We shouldn't count just lab confirmed cases because China isn't actually reporting the numbers but we can totally count the confirmed fatalities because China is definitely getting that number right.
1
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:17 am to Volvagia
To be fair, you're doing the same thing. You accept the state fatality number, and use a higher than confirmed estimate of the infection number to arrive at a lower mortality rate. Fact is nobody knows which numbers are accurate.
I'd like to just be told the number of people on ventilators in Wuhan right now, compared to normal for this time of year. That should be easy to count and probably more useful than all this analysis of grossly incomplete data.
I'd like to just be told the number of people on ventilators in Wuhan right now, compared to normal for this time of year. That should be easy to count and probably more useful than all this analysis of grossly incomplete data.
This post was edited on 1/27/20 at 9:32 am
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:21 am to wdhalgren
quote:
To be fair, you're doing the same thing. You accept the state fatality number, and use a higher than confirmed estimate of the infection number to arrive at a lower mortality rate. Fact is nobody knows which numbers are accurate.
Difference is I’m not the one making a post saying I knew the mortality rate. It’s too early to tell. I only made an illustration on how badly your estimation ignored critical factors.
And there is entirely too many armchair epidemiologists in here who first heard of R-0 in the past 72 hours trying to summon armageddon.
This post was edited on 1/27/20 at 9:22 am
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:22 am to wdhalgren
Regardless of what the numbers are I purchased some latex gloves and some medical grade masks. Prolly going by the ole bass pro to load up ammo and cammo. Gonna replenish my seed stock for my garden. Might have to reroute my gutters to dump the water into a 50 gallon drum.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:24 am to AUin02
quote:
We shouldn't count just lab confirmed cases because China isn't actually reporting the numbers but we can totally count the confirmed fatalities because China is definitely getting that number right.
So they suppress information no one cares about, but are up front and honest about what people do....which by the way will make things look dramatically worse than it actually is so why suppress anything?
If anything they would actively do the opposite if they were trying anything nefarious: inflate the infected numbers and sneak the corpses out the back door.
And you call my take, mocking the cherry-picking of data here, dumb.
This post was edited on 1/27/20 at 9:48 am
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:27 am to Volvagia
quote:
So they suppress information no one cares about, but are up front and honest about what people do....which by the way will make things look dramatically worse than it actually is so why suppress anything?
This is actually a good point.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:34 am to Volvagia
quote:
I only made an illustration on how badly your estimation ignored critical factors.
It wasn't my estimation you were disagreeing with, that was someone else. I'm just pointing out that your illustration also ignored critical factors. You can't effectively refute bad data with more bad data.
This post was edited on 1/27/20 at 9:35 am
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:36 am to frankthetank
KUNG FLU
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:38 am to wdhalgren
Beijing has 8 new cases and the 1st death.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:46 am to frankthetank
quote:
Wuhan’s top government and Communist Party officials offered to step down on Monday amid growing criticism in the city that the local authorities’ response to the outbreak was too slow.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:46 am to wdhalgren
quote:
You accept the state fatality number, and use a higher than confirmed estimate of the infection number to arrive at a lower mortality rate.
Link?
Again, I didn’t propose a mortality rate as much as illustrate how big of a picture you are leaving out attempting to calculate it without the medical treatment correction factor.
I’m not accepting anything except the notion that there is no data at present to support a mortality rate significantly higher than flu.
One thing you said is 100% false however: you are implying I based my numbers on twitter estimates. I’m not. Historically speaking the value used (and applied in publications on modeling for this one) is 5% of the total infected is lab confirmed. While CivilTiger is correct and that number might be incorrectly depressed compared to actual due to the hysterical nature of what’s happening, the point is at least it has a basis in objective historical reality.
Not “let me throw whatever parts I need to make this a worst case scenario together, even if they don’t make sense”
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:47 am to frankthetank
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:49 am to Volvagia
Not sure if posted but sounds like the ChineseNew Year holiday will be extended to keep people from traveling. Curious what affect this will have on trade and getting businesses up and running. Most factories and even port closes up during the break
This post was edited on 1/27/20 at 9:56 am
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:53 am to Volvagia
quote:
Laboratory confirmed cases do not mean all cases. Current estimates is that reported numbers are only ~5% of overall infected.
So change that 2.83% to something closer to 0.15%
But by that logic, shouldn't the number of deaths similarly be adjusted?
Posted on 1/27/20 at 9:58 am to udtiger
quote:
But by that logic, shouldn't the number of deaths similarly be adjusted?
No. Because in the heavily urban center of Wuhan, there is a reasonable expectation of deaths being categorized.
It’s not rocket science. You deal with this all the time.
10 people get a cough from same viral source. 2 have asthma and seek medical attention. One dies.
You can’t ignore the 8 people who took OTC meds and stayed at home to declare a 50% mortality rate.
The act of going to the doctor will self select the worst of the cases. They are obviously part of the picture.....but they are far from being the only picture.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 10:00 am to Palmetto08
quote:they extended the national holiday, but most people already take off the entire week. Most laborers take 3-4 weeks off, so I don't expect too much impact from an additional 3 days.
Not sure if posted but sounds like the ChineseNew Year holiday will be extended to keep people from traveling. Curious what affect this will have on trade and getting businesses up and running. Most factories and even port closes up during the break
Also businesses already factor in the CNY impact of a week or so of production.
The biggest impact will be lack of tourism - both into China, but also Chinese tourists to other countries.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 10:05 am to Spirit of Dunson
Posted on 1/27/20 at 10:08 am to udtiger
I'm no longer convinced that both Russia and India do not have the virus. Russia will hide it and India may not know they have it yet.....and that's scary.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 10:10 am to udtiger
quote:
mortality rate of 2.86%
*that number is almost assuredly wrong because it's undercounting both deaths and actual infections that don't require medical care, but it's the best we've got for now.
ETA - I see this has already been covered.
This post was edited on 1/27/20 at 10:22 am
Posted on 1/27/20 at 10:13 am to Volvagia
quote:
For instance, we know now that the mortality rate if hospitalized is around 15%. For his number to be true, one out of every 5 people infected would require hospital admission.
And we know that’s not true.
The key is we don't know the fate of those cases that are being turned away or never making it into the hospital. It's possible the number of deaths is ten times or more what is official. You would expect there to be more news from individual families if that was occurring - but we also don't know how effective the government is at shutting down that kind of info instantly.
At this point it could only be flu level bad or something ten times worse than the flu. Until somebody in a civilized nation gets a couple weeks of dealing with this where there is information freedom or we have better data on the inside, its all speculation.
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