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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:08 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:08 pm to WaWaWeeWa
The infections can double every 3 days and overwhelm you before you even know you have a problem when you aren’t testing widespread.
Let’s say there are 500 cases in New Orleans.
Doesn’t sound too bad. Maybe you have 10 ICU cases.
9 days later there are 2,000 cases and with the incubation period the severe cases are lagging behind and building. If 2% of those need ICU then you are looking at 40 intubated patients.
At this point you say we need to do something and lock down the city. It takes a week for that to even work. So the cases are still building and you now have 5,000 cases and now you have 100 intubated patients.
If you are 9 days too late in starting that quarantine you will be looking at 400 intubated patients in New Orleans. That’s a nightmare.
The average length of intubation for these patients is 18 days.
So that’s how you can go from looking good to being swamped in a couple of weeks. That’s with a conservative 2% ICU rate and assuming only 500 cases.
Let’s say there are 500 cases in New Orleans.
Doesn’t sound too bad. Maybe you have 10 ICU cases.
9 days later there are 2,000 cases and with the incubation period the severe cases are lagging behind and building. If 2% of those need ICU then you are looking at 40 intubated patients.
At this point you say we need to do something and lock down the city. It takes a week for that to even work. So the cases are still building and you now have 5,000 cases and now you have 100 intubated patients.
If you are 9 days too late in starting that quarantine you will be looking at 400 intubated patients in New Orleans. That’s a nightmare.
The average length of intubation for these patients is 18 days.
So that’s how you can go from looking good to being swamped in a couple of weeks. That’s with a conservative 2% ICU rate and assuming only 500 cases.
2
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:11 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Why the spin? It makes their mortality rate more accurate.
No. It doesn’t reflect the demographics of our population.
To be fair, neither does Italy’s. They are both wrong. That’s why I’ve always said the truth is somewhere in between but closer to South Korea.
You can’t expect our CFR to be lower than SK when their data is already skewed to female and young patients. Or give me a good reason why you can.
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 8:11 pm
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:16 pm to Korkstand
Jesus Christ you people are thick. It’s not just ME. There are thousands of not millions of people immune compromised due to auto immune diseases, chemotherapy and medications due to medical conditions they can’t control.
You can frick off man. I’m not lax about my health. I have an auto immune disease that’s out of my control. There and hundreds of thousands of not millions like that and that’s not counting the elderly. I’ve given up my paycheck. How about you? You ever had to starve a night or two? Probably not, not judging by your posts. If you can’t get uncomfortable to save my life or millions of others then you can’t see beyond your own selfish way of living
You can frick off man. I’m not lax about my health. I have an auto immune disease that’s out of my control. There and hundreds of thousands of not millions like that and that’s not counting the elderly. I’ve given up my paycheck. How about you? You ever had to starve a night or two? Probably not, not judging by your posts. If you can’t get uncomfortable to save my life or millions of others then you can’t see beyond your own selfish way of living
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:19 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Here's a modeling paper out of the UK showing the potential impact of various mitigation strategies there and in the US. LINK
quote:
In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data in both countries: The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scale of the US, resulting in more distinct localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B) than seen across GB. The higher peak in mortality in GB is due to the smaller size of the country and its older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.
quote:
Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:19 pm to Korkstand
quote:
And that will cost lives, too.
You don’t know that anymore than what you just said about the measures saving lives. You’re talking out of your arse. You care more about your lifestyle and the economy than human lives. That tells me all I need to know about you
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:19 pm to WaWaWeeWa
And sometime in 2035 some kid is going to be questioning why he’s spending so much time studying exponents in school....
EDIT: But if this is what it takes to kick common core out of school maybe I’ll take the population Russian roulette? (And I say this as a diabetic).
EDIT: But if this is what it takes to kick common core out of school maybe I’ll take the population Russian roulette? (And I say this as a diabetic).
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 8:25 pm
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:26 pm to BamaAtl
Well that’s horrifying
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:26 pm to WicKed WayZ
Dawg, these people ranting about the economy are just butt-hurt over their 401k's declining in value. They don't give a shite about the average worker.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:26 pm to WicKed WayZ
Stay safe and healthy , Brother.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:27 pm to WicKed WayZ
quote:My house flooded with over 4ft. of water and I had to learn real quick how to live on hardly anything with a wife and a 2 year old in an old family camper. I didn’t have flood insurance. We ate through all our savings and then some. I used as little gov help as I could. No fema trailer. No shelter in place. No SBA loan. We basically did everything ourselves from the gutting to the baseboards... since we are sharing sob stories.
How about you? You ever had to starve a night or two? Probably not, not judging by your posts. If you can’t get uncomfortable to save my life or millions of others then you can’t see beyond your own selfish way of living
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 8:29 pm
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:29 pm to BamaAtl
So they’re saying best case scenario is 1 MILL+ deaths in the US?
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:29 pm to WicKed WayZ
You need to calm down.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:31 pm to BamaAtl
From your article
This is the million dollar question. I can’t figure out why it wouldn’t come back but I’m hoping for a miracle. Maybe a favorable mutation.
quote:
The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.
This is the million dollar question. I can’t figure out why it wouldn’t come back but I’m hoping for a miracle. Maybe a favorable mutation.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:34 pm to The Mick
quote:
So they’re saying best case scenario is 1 MILL+ deaths in the US?
That's what their model predicts. They have a few assumptions in there, but none of them are crazy.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:35 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
I can’t figure out why it wouldn’t come back but I’m hoping for a miracle.
Best guess - someone will find a moonshot pharmaceutical intervention, or we'll just start 3-D printing vents. Otherwise, there's nothing to stop it from coming back, especially given the long post-infection transmission period.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:35 pm to BamaAtl
80% is crazy given what we know from Diamond Princess.
Unless they assume the epidemic lasts 5 years then sure. With no intervening factors, that’s possible.
Unless they assume the epidemic lasts 5 years then sure. With no intervening factors, that’s possible.
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 8:36 pm
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:35 pm to BamaAtl
quote:
They have a few assumptions in there, but none of them are crazy.
And the fear mongering goes on
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:36 pm to BamaAtl
That paper literally starts out with “in the absence of any control measures or changes in individual behavior.”
Both of these have happened in spades already
Both of these have happened in spades already
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:37 pm to tigerfan88
We are going to have to use hockey rinks as morgues
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:37 pm to BamaAtl
The job our policy makers have is extremely challenging.
You have to look at these numbers a try to time your mitigation efforts just right so that you stress your medical system to the max before it relaxes and you take the pressure off. Because the idea is to get as many people infected as possible without breaking the system.
This is so difficult because everything is delayed by a week or two. You have to trust the predictions and models and make a tough call.
You have to look at these numbers a try to time your mitigation efforts just right so that you stress your medical system to the max before it relaxes and you take the pressure off. Because the idea is to get as many people infected as possible without breaking the system.
This is so difficult because everything is delayed by a week or two. You have to trust the predictions and models and make a tough call.
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