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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:23 pm to ell_13
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:23 pm to ell_13
quote:
I’m not in physics anymore. Cyber security. Lots of action there lately.
Didn't someone ask you yesterday if you were a physician and you said something like "close. physicist?"
General question to anyone who knows:
At one time it was thought that cardiovascular disease came into play with regards to severity of infection. Is that still true?
This post was edited on 3/10/20 at 5:25 pm
2
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:24 pm to Volvagia
quote:
So you agree now that this isn’t “just the flu?”
Your posts in the past week have certainly been in that direction.
He’ll come around. I believe you were saying there would only be 5000 total deaths just a couple of weeks ago.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:24 pm to Scruffy
quote:
I believe the fatality will end up being as low as the flu, yes.
I do not think we will be over run.
I do not think this will spin out of control, as long as people calm down and quit trying to panic others.
What WILL make things worse is if everyone panics.
How does that square with events in Italy?
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:25 pm to Scruffy
I agree with your post edit. 
I just don’t see that low of a CFR in the cards anymore.
Still on the fence on our vulnerability to ICUs being overloaded though.
I just don’t see that low of a CFR in the cards anymore.
Still on the fence on our vulnerability to ICUs being overloaded though.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:26 pm to BallsEleven
It was a joke because my degree is in physics.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:27 pm to Poker_hog
5-10k, almost 2 months ago.
What I said a couple of weeks ago is developments might be making 15-20k more realistic.
What I said a couple of weeks ago is developments might be making 15-20k more realistic.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:27 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
How does that square with events in Italy?
Italy was unprepared, has an inadequate healthcare system, and generally has a very old population . Add that to the Chinese hiding the epidemic, and therefore it spread around for months=perfect storm
Contrast Italy with SK. Korea was blindsided with a cultish church giving it to over 1,000 people and actively avoiding government containment efforts—and because they took appropriate measures and have an adequate healthcare plan and system, South Korea has a much, much lower death rate despite similar infection numbers and timeline.
Italy is having to just give up on old people who come in with breathing trouble because they are running out of vents.
Germany and France are coping much, much more similarly to the US/SK as well.
This post was edited on 3/10/20 at 5:30 pm
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:28 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:We are not Italy. We are not SK. We are not China. We are not Iran.
How does that square with events in Italy?
If this spins out of control, I’ll come eat crow, but I am not going to use Italy as the statistical basis for my opinion on this topic, just like I refuse to use Iran and China.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:30 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
has an inadequate healthcare system,
Based on what? The fact that the virus is killing there?
Part of the reason why they have such an old population is that their healthcare system is easily in the top 5 globally.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:31 pm to Scruffy
quote:
I did say that I expect the actual CFR to be, at worst, around 0.2%, but I fully expect it to be <0.1%
I hope Scruffy is right. I’ve consistently said things in line with that doctor. I agree with everything in her statement, I even think it’s slightly dramatic. Maybe our disagreement has been over theoretical projected numbers, I guess some see that as fear mongering. I just see it as discussion.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:31 pm to Volvagia
quote:
Part of the reason why they have such an old population is that their healthcare system is easily in the top 5 globally.
Is it because of their healthcare system, or their culture and way of life?
Methinks it’s a bit of both, but more so their diet and way of life over the healthcare system.
This post was edited on 3/10/20 at 5:32 pm
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:32 pm to rds dc
quote:
PIERRE, S.D. (AP) — South Dakota confirms first 5 coronavirus cases, and 1st death.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:33 pm to beerJeep
I’m sorry, but are we seriously trying to turn Italy into a developing nation just for the low hanging fruit of being able to easily dismiss what’s happening there?
This is exactly the shite Dr RC was referring to in this analogy.
This is exactly the shite Dr RC was referring to in this analogy.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:34 pm to Volvagia
quote:
Based on what?
Their lack of ICU beds in the effected regions is the main culprit. Their horrible contact tracing, lack of plan to scale their ability to provide care, etc.
In your opinion, why is no other Western nation seeing anywhere close to the amount of deaths that Italy is? Do you think it’s somehow more deadly there? No—they botched it.
This post was edited on 3/10/20 at 5:36 pm
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:35 pm to Volvagia
quote:
I’m sorry, but are we seriously trying to turn Italy into a developing nation just for the low hanging fruit of being able to easily dismiss what’s happening there?
Nope. Not at all. I’m simply stating that their old population has more to do with their diet and way of life over their healthcare system.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:35 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Things not looking good in metro Atlanta right now.
A Waffle House employee just tested positive in Canton, GA... basically an outer suburb of Atlanta.
LINK
A Waffle House worker would expose a lot of people to the virus.
A Waffle House employee just tested positive in Canton, GA... basically an outer suburb of Atlanta.
LINK
quote:
A worker at a Georgia Waffle House tested positive for COVID-19, prompting co-workers to quarantine themselves in their homes, company officials said Tuesday.
None of the co-workers from the restaurant in the Canton area northwest of Atlanta have shown any signs of illness, the company said in a statement.
Meanwhile, five more people in Georgia have tested positive for the new coronavirus, as disease fears spread to school districts and the Georgia Capitol.
A total of 17 people in the state have now tested positive, according to figures released late Monday, although some tests have yet to be confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The 17 cases are from eight Georgia counties: Cherokee, Cobb, DeKalb, Gwinnett, Fayette, Floyd, Fulton, and Polk, according to a statement from Gov. Brian Kemp.
A Waffle House worker would expose a lot of people to the virus.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:37 pm to Indefatigable
People claiming that italy will not be an outlier are saying that we just need to wait for it to blow up other places like it did there. Many people expect Germany to be just as bad in the next couple of weeks.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:37 pm to Scruffy
quote:
We are not Italy. We are not SK. We are not China. We are not Iran.
If this spins out of control, I’ll come eat crow, but I am not going to use Italy as the statistical basis for my opinion on this topic, just like I refuse to use Iran and China.
Which afflicted country does our healthcare system most resemble in your opinion? I'm assume general resources, bed/vent capacity are the most important things we need to properly deal with it?
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:37 pm to Scruffy
quote:The best post in this thread. I can't find the fricking link, but there was a paper put out recently about the Diamond Princess passengers that mentioned OVER 35% of covid19 cases are asymptomatic and are likely to never be found.
I believe the fatality will end up being as low as the flu, yes.
I do not think we will be over run.
I do not think this will spin out of control, as long as people calm down and quit trying to panic others.
What WILL make things worse is if everyone panics.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 5:38 pm to beerJeep
I think we can all agree on one thing. South Korea kicked the shite out of this virus. What an impressive show of coordination and effort.
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