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2
Posted on 3/6/20 at 8:22 pm to Fun Bunch
I’ve been following this thread since the day it started. Vol is far from a doomcaster. He actually provides numbers and logic to backup his thoughts. Everyone keeps referring to people overreacting based on other viruses. This is a different virus with a bunch of unknowns still.
Posted on 3/6/20 at 8:32 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:.
You claimed this would be responsible for a million deaths using what is call wishful math
I did no such thing. Ever.
I said if this was as pervasive as the flu (and thus comparable), it would.
And I said that I didn’t think this would ultimately happen.
All this salt can’t be good for your blood pressure.
Wishful math? I’m assuming you are talking about the aged based mortality data as presented by a nothing murder?
Because that’s the only real variable here. Everything else is straight forward if you can read: infection amount is set by the hypothecial (same as flu), and it’s not like the census data was fudged.
For rough estimates, that’s the only factors: mortality rate, infection rate, and applied population.
It’s literally only because you don’t like the result that it’s wishful
quote:
I don't think there's enough info to make that claim with any sort of certainty yet.
Oh no the hell you don’t, little crawfish. That’s MY position, and has been for most of the thread attacking both extremes.
You can’t make a definitive statement one way, attack commentary against it, with numbers backing it no less, with nothing more than your feelings.
Then when you get called out on that, pull out the “well the numbers aren’t definite yet.”
Well it certainly seems like you know what they are “definitely” going to be.
Anyway. I’m dropping this. The crux of the argument was to illustrate how fricking stupid to point out flu deaths when the flu has infected around 45 million people this season. Against what? A couple of thousand with coronavirus? Maybe? The majority of which haven’t even been sick long enough to expire even if they are at risk to?
If you are going to rail against such a common sense point and call it wishful math, then there’s no point cluttering up the thread. Good’day
This post was edited on 3/6/20 at 8:34 pm
Posted on 3/6/20 at 8:32 pm to LSU1018
His commentary has definitely shaded towards negative. This is not criticism just an observation. He’s one of my favorite posters on this site.
Posted on 3/6/20 at 8:40 pm to Fun Bunch
Negative slant is primarily because this thread has been filled in the past week of people downplaying the virus, calling it the flu.
So by default, my tone has been negative.
It’s why some of the doomcasters think I switched to their side: no, it’s just that the opposite extreme is just as bad.
And I’ve been bothered a little by the past week:
For a moment, throw all of the number and statistics talk out of the window, and look at the objective situation in places like Italy and SK. Hospitals overwhelmed, med staff pulled from getting sick, pulling docs from retirement to help, sending people home because there’s no care to give.
All this is shite you typically don’t see with “just the flu.”
Hell, we didn’t even really see it for novel pandemic flu in 09.
Not in the West with developed health care systems at least.
So while I’m still wait and see on the numbers(and there ARE some encouraging indicators), I turned a little pessimistic based on that.
So by default, my tone has been negative.
It’s why some of the doomcasters think I switched to their side: no, it’s just that the opposite extreme is just as bad.
And I’ve been bothered a little by the past week:
For a moment, throw all of the number and statistics talk out of the window, and look at the objective situation in places like Italy and SK. Hospitals overwhelmed, med staff pulled from getting sick, pulling docs from retirement to help, sending people home because there’s no care to give.
All this is shite you typically don’t see with “just the flu.”
Hell, we didn’t even really see it for novel pandemic flu in 09.
Not in the West with developed health care systems at least.
So while I’m still wait and see on the numbers(and there ARE some encouraging indicators), I turned a little pessimistic based on that.
This post was edited on 3/6/20 at 8:46 pm
Posted on 3/6/20 at 8:57 pm to Volvagia
Oweo could give you lessons on shortening your posts. Goodness
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:01 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:
Shams Charania
@ShamsCharania
·
8m
Sources: The NBA has sent a memo to its franchises explaining that, due to coronavirus outbreak, teams should be preparing to play games without fans in attendance and identifying “essential staff” present for these games -- should it be necessary.
LINK
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:03 pm to Dr RC
In Louisiana, I'd be more worried about tandem floats than the coronavirus.
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:05 pm to Burhead
I....I didn’t realize the National Ebola Training and Education Center was an active thing 
But yes, it does illustrate with one slide how “bad” this can get. 2-3 months from now, a half million dead even with fairly low viral behavior numbers.
Nothing earth shattering, and the age focused bit might temper the absenteeism dislocations (you think truck drivers would keep on traveling and delivering food at 100%? Coal to power plants?)
I’ve waffled on the uncertainty of the numbers a good bit, but here is one prediction I’m willing to hang my hat on:
We will come to regret the reactionary approach the CDC took here as opposed to aggressive containment SK did.
Only good the CDC will be now is to be nerdy poindexters calculating and collating case data rather than managing the situation.
But I think the slide authors might be jumping the gun.
I’m assuming the slide is geared towards preparing healthcare to a realistic worst case scenario situation
But yes, it does illustrate with one slide how “bad” this can get. 2-3 months from now, a half million dead even with fairly low viral behavior numbers.
Nothing earth shattering, and the age focused bit might temper the absenteeism dislocations (you think truck drivers would keep on traveling and delivering food at 100%? Coal to power plants?)
I’ve waffled on the uncertainty of the numbers a good bit, but here is one prediction I’m willing to hang my hat on:
We will come to regret the reactionary approach the CDC took here as opposed to aggressive containment SK did.
Only good the CDC will be now is to be nerdy poindexters calculating and collating case data rather than managing the situation.
But I think the slide authors might be jumping the gun.
I’m assuming the slide is geared towards preparing healthcare to a realistic worst case scenario situation
This post was edited on 3/6/20 at 9:11 pm
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:07 pm to LNCHBOX
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:14 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:
LNCHBOX
You brought your schtick to an outbreak thread? Damn son, you need a hobby
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:31 pm to rds dc
quote:
NEW: Florida reports first 2 deaths from coronavirus
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:32 pm to rds dc
What county were the Florida cases?
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:40 pm to rds dc
quote:
As of Friday, Louisiana had completed five tests within its state lab. There have been no confirmed cases in the state.
State health officials said they currently have the capacity to run between 150 and 650 tests, depending on how many patients are being tested at one time. If necessary, the lab could run all of those tests within one to two days.
“Along with many other states, the Department of Health was not able to validate the initial test kits received from the CDC,” a spokesperson said. It took the state about a week from requesting new ones to receiving them.
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:46 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
CENTRAL FLORIDA, Fla. — Two people have died after testing presumptively positive for COVID-19, the coronavirus, in Florida, the Florida Department of Health announced on Twitter Friday night. Officials said three new presumptive cases have come up in the state. Two of those cases are isolated in Broward County. The third case is in Lee County, where officials said the person has died.
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:46 pm to Volvagia
Volvagia, it’s weird to come into this thread from last week when you were the one calling us negative nancies the doomcasters. :)
Oh how the turntables have turned. :)
Your takes have been pretty reasonable, but some on here are weirdly critical of anyone who thinks this might be a big deal.
Oh how the turntables have turned. :)
Your takes have been pretty reasonable, but some on here are weirdly critical of anyone who thinks this might be a big deal.
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:54 pm to CivilTiger83
Again, would you like me to go back and bring back posts when the “doomsayers” were implicitly accepting accounts of 100k dead in China and they were simply rounding up and shooting all infected?
Or what about all of the criticism about the fabricated Chinese numbers.....whose epidemiological parameters ended up aligned with the metrics of outbreaks in other countries?
You were the best of the “doomsdayers,” but don’t act like you’ve “converted” me.
What was being shilled was a far cry to what is realistic today, and I’ve certainly noticed that for as vocal you guys were to attack China on how they handled the outbreak and how they used criteria to doctor numbers y’all have all been silent at the US doing the same thing.
We have confirmed that we are more than six weeks into a uncontrolled outbreak in the US. At this point, China reported thousands infected and took aggressive measures to contain it while this thread was filled with vitriol that they weren’t doing enough.
When the US reached the same temporal point, we claimed fewer than 150 infected, even though they are scattered all over the county.
I prefer remaining in the middle ground, dog piled by both camps, thank you very much. Feels more honest.
Or what about all of the criticism about the fabricated Chinese numbers.....whose epidemiological parameters ended up aligned with the metrics of outbreaks in other countries?
You were the best of the “doomsdayers,” but don’t act like you’ve “converted” me.
What was being shilled was a far cry to what is realistic today, and I’ve certainly noticed that for as vocal you guys were to attack China on how they handled the outbreak and how they used criteria to doctor numbers y’all have all been silent at the US doing the same thing.
We have confirmed that we are more than six weeks into a uncontrolled outbreak in the US. At this point, China reported thousands infected and took aggressive measures to contain it while this thread was filled with vitriol that they weren’t doing enough.
When the US reached the same temporal point, we claimed fewer than 150 infected, even though they are scattered all over the county.
I prefer remaining in the middle ground, dog piled by both camps, thank you very much. Feels more honest.
This post was edited on 3/6/20 at 11:01 pm
Posted on 3/6/20 at 9:55 pm to CivilTiger83
This virus is a nothingburger. Thousands will die but it’s no bubonic plague
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