re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

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People die in my community every day from car crashes, gun violence, and chronic health problems. More people will die from those things in the United States tomorrow than they will from the amount of people Coronavirus has so far killed.


This talking point is so old. Does anyone actually fall for this garbage?

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Eventually, everyone dies. Why is anyone worried about that

Or maybe, the world is already a dangerous place and there are lots of people that don't need another thing out there that can kill them?

South Korea continues to have the best data set in the world and their naive CFR is 0.7%. If we could isolate the numbers from today and track those cases to resolution without adding any new cases, the CFR can only go up. There is the statistically unlikely solution that no one else dies in that group and the CFR stays at 0.7%.

SK data - LINK

They currently have 6,415 active cases. Unfortunately, some of those are going to die and raise the CFR for this batch of data.

South Korea highlights:

164,740 test run
136,624 negative results
21,832 pending
6,284 confirmed

Of that 6,284 confirmed



There is a lag in case resolution data because it is taking 3 - 6 weeks for people to recover.

Right now we are on the green line for SK but will eventually move to the red line as the 6,415 active cases are resolved.



LINK

So right now, today, it looks like the WHO estimate of a CFR between 1 - 2% is probably about right. What will it be in a year? Hopefully, a lot lower with treatments and vaccines in the works.

That data is just telling us what we already know. Deaths are mainly occurring in the elderly population.

Any information out there about the impact on pregnant women and children after birth?

From China data, pretty no affect but those are 3rd trimesters. Not sure about 1st or 2nd.

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That's a bold assertion that your grand total will not grow.

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I'm sure it will. But this virus has been in the United States for roughly 45 days. And in that amount of time we have 240 confirmed cases and 11 or so deaths - all but two of them occurring inside an assisted living facility for the elderly.

If it were so contagious and so widespread as many people on this board seem to want it to be, I feel like we would have seen viral videos of Americans collapsing on the streets by now. We would hear stories of co-workers, friends, and family members falling violently ill without warning.

It shouldn't matter if we're doing testing for the disease or not. There should be an all out siege going on at thousands of ERs along the West Coast right now with people infected by this virus. We haven't seen any of that.

Until the CDC get its head out of its arse and starts testing a lot more people you are correct in saying the confirmed numbers are low.

In other words, if we keep testing low, we won't have any more confirmed cases. What could go wrong?

I'm going to identify as female until this thing blows over.

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Don’t be salty just because I said the reasons why you think this won’t be a doomsday scenario were ill informed

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You claimed this would be responsible for a million deaths using what is call wishful math. I don't think there's enough info to make that claim with any sort of certainty yet. But people using your logic are pushing the freak out narrative.