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Message

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:32 pm to
Posted by 1BamaRTR
In Your Head Blvd
Member since Apr 2015
24837 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:32 pm to
quote:

Worst case numbers are quite scary.


Even if the numbers are in the hundreds, that still makes up an extremely tiny portion of the population of these areas that have been affected.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105316 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:32 pm to
Translation in the comments
Posted by TigerATO
Member since Dec 2013
237 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:32 pm to
Confirmed in Australia. Still nothing in Madagascar tho.
LINK
Posted by SirWinston
Say NO to War
Member since Jul 2014
104464 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:32 pm to
I just got back from SEA and feel like arse. Diarrhea constipation fever headache chills aches etc.

Just had the flu very bad 2 weeks ago - everybody we know in the PNW has been sick this month
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
46369 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:33 pm to
I think we don’t know enough real data right now to panic or dismiss. Now that there are documented cases outside of China we should get a better idea of what we are dealing with.
Posted by Sao
East Texas Piney Woods
Member since Jun 2009
68469 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:33 pm to

Wuhan Klan ain't nothin' to frick wit
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35381 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:33 pm to
quote:

The fact that the Chinese government is so sensitive to criticism means they are more likely to hide and underreport a crisis
Which is the exact opposite of how they would have handled the Hong Kong protests, instead of sending in loyalists to attack innocent people for the world to see.

I mean underreporting is unsurprising but just letting a disease spread, in 2020 of all times, and especially after the criticisms for doing the exact thing when SARS happened, is a bit different.

In fact, because of the whole SARS debacle, an overreaction in the opposite direction seems more likely.
This post was edited on 1/24/20 at 7:36 pm
Posted by Rammin TX
DFW Texas
Member since Oct 2018
1736 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:33 pm to
quote:

if you're hospitalized


Rare and usually people with other complications in the USA
Posted by PearlJam
NotBeardEaves
Member since Aug 2014
13908 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:34 pm to
quote:

Think about this for a minute - 61,000 people were killed by the flu in America last year,.a shot exists that significantly helps keep those numbers down, and MOST Americans don't even get the damn shot, but if 8,000 people across the world get this new coronavirus, we panic?

It's patently absurd.
But approximately 45 million were infected with the flu. So far this seems to be about 10 times more deadly than the flu. If it is as contagious and without vaccination, it could be a pretty serious pandemic if it spreads to as many people as the flu did and actually is 10 times or more more fatal. It also could be contained like SARS was and be a small blip on the radar.
This post was edited on 1/24/20 at 7:36 pm
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:35 pm to
quote:

from the CDC stats I saw, it's less than 10%. Where are you getting this info?


LINK

The "best" year hovered around 7%. Worst year was around 13%. 95% confidence level was wider.

NY Post reports it's between 8-17%.

LINK
Posted by CivilTiger83
Member since Dec 2017
2525 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:37 pm to
quote:

Think about this for a minute - 61,000 people were killed by the flu in America last year,.a shot exists that significantly helps keep those numbers down, and MOST Americans don't even get the damn shot, but if 8,000 people across the world get this new coronavirus, we panic?


Take it to the poliboard...

If only 8k get infected then it will be a nothingburger. If 8 million get infected and the mortality rate is much higher than the flu it’s a big deal.

WE GET IT... IT MIGHT NOT BE A BIG DEAL. Based on the current reaction in China and the numbers coming out, it very much has the potential to be a big deal.
Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
5327 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:37 pm to
quote:

The only reason this is a big deal and the seasonal flu isn't is because this is new


I'm not panicking, I'm pointing that there COULD be an amplified threat from this virus because of the fact that it's new. Next year's strains of influenza will likely be slightly different from this years, and large numbers of high risk people (elderly, immunocompromised, etc.) will be vaccinated again because it's new. Hopefully we soon have a vaccine for this coronavirus strain (not guaranteed), but as of now that newness confers an additional risk to at least some people.
This post was edited on 1/24/20 at 7:39 pm
Posted by PearlJam
NotBeardEaves
Member since Aug 2014
13908 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:37 pm to
quote:

The "best" year hovered around 7%. Worst year was around 13%. 95% confidence level was wider.
2018 was a bad year and there were 800k hospitalizations and 60k deaths.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:38 pm to
quote:

Can you and slackster find somewhere else to take your hot takes? We have an actual person on this board in China in a closed off zone looking for news on this thread. It’s real for him and his family. We don’t need 4 pages of shitposting from you and slackster.




He's looking for real news and you're giving him the 90k cases number. Okay guy.

Honkus, if you're looking for real news, stick to the CDC and WHO. , good luck brother.
Posted by Tigers0891
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2017
7163 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:39 pm to
There is enough free media in the US and internet media that anyone here with half a brain knew Afghanistan was a failure from jump street
Posted by Poker_hog
Member since Mar 2019
3650 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:39 pm to
quote:

Even if the numbers are in the hundreds, that still makes up an extremely tiny portion of the population of these areas that have been affected


Total numbers aren’t concerning but the rate of rise is.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:40 pm to
quote:

WE GET IT... IT MIGHT NOT BE A BIG DEAL. Based on the current reaction in China and the numbers coming out, it very much has the potential to be a big deal.



Like I said, if it's not doomsday news, it's apparently not news or trustworthy at all.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35381 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:40 pm to
quote:

2018 was a bad year and there were 800k hospitalizations and 60k deaths.
But whether it’s a more or less severe flu season overall, I would think had would show up in the number of hospitalizations itself. But the severity and mortality of those who get to that point would seem more consistent from year to year.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:42 pm to
quote:

2018 was a bad year and there were 800k hospitalizations and 60k deaths.


Yeah it fluctuates. Tried to guesstimate the average from the CDC table since 2010. Probably closer to 9% I'd say.

Point is, that's a higher fatality rate from hospitalizations than this virus so far.
Posted by 1BamaRTR
In Your Head Blvd
Member since Apr 2015
24837 posts
Posted on 1/24/20 at 7:43 pm to
These Chinese cities also have a very high population density and aren’t the most sanitary places to begin with. It also really doesn’t help that it’s probably the busiest traveling time of year in China because of their New Year celebrations.
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