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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 9/6/20 at 7:49 am to tiger91
Posted on 9/6/20 at 7:49 am to tiger91
quote:
Wait what? I don’t understand #2 — they’re not tracking admissions? Why wouldn’t they? Who’s running this thing?????
Let me clarify. We don’t know the turnover rate. Well maybe the state does but they aren’t giving us that information. All they are saying is there are “x” number of people in the hospital. Let me give you two very different scenarios.
1. The state says there are 100 people hospitalized. Over the past week 50 people have been discharged and 50 new people have been admitted.
2. The state says 100 people are hospitalized and it’s the same 100 people that have been on ventilators or long term care for weeks.
Scenario 1 means the virus is still alive and well in the community. Scenario 2 not so much. In fact if there are very few new admissions that’s a very important statistic.
This post was edited on 9/6/20 at 7:50 am
1
Posted on 9/6/20 at 1:23 pm to Vlad
She might not look Model material if she just ran 5 miles, had Covid twice, and fell out in the street, If showing picks make them pics from about a month ago. Thanks
Posted on 9/7/20 at 3:53 pm to Sissidog02
Posted on 9/7/20 at 5:43 pm to BRIllini07
Australia is having an election too?
Posted on 9/8/20 at 7:27 am to BayouNation
Preprint suggesting what some of us have been saying for a while now, that SARS 2.0 will weaken over time and become another one of the common cold HCoVs.
However, this is based on a model, and we should all be weary of models by now.
However, this is based on a model, and we should all be weary of models by now.
quote:
Our analysis of immunological and epidemiological data on HCoVs shows that infection-blocking immunity wanes rapidly, but disease-reducing immunity is long-lived. We estimate the relevant parameters and incorporate them into a new epidemiological model framework which separates these different components of immunity.Our model recapitulates both the current severity of CoV-2 and the relatively benign nature of HCoVs; suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached, CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold. The benign outcome at the endemic phase is contingent on the virus causing primary infections in children.
quote:
These results force us to re-evaluate control measures that rely on identifying and isolating symptomatic infections, and reconsider ideas regarding herd immunity and the use of immune individuals as shields to protect vulnerable groups.
Posted on 9/8/20 at 7:40 am to BRIllini07
Y'all see this yet?
Preprint to be published in "Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness."
Basically saying much of the panic boils down to someone giving bad testimony to the US House Oversight and Reform Committee back on March 11th. This someone incorrectly stated that the CFR of seasonal flu was 0.1%, which is the IFR, which implied that the CFR for SARS 2.0 would be 10 times higher than that. I guess it's possible this someone got confused with the difference between IFR and CFR.
It would be a shame if this someone is a really important person in all this mess. Someone being praised as a hero, where his word is gospel.
Perhaps this someone was given the honor of throwing out the first pitch at a MLB baseball game, and had his own bobble head made.
I'd hate to think that this someone is the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.
In case you haven't figured it out yet, this "someone" is Dr. Anthony Fauci, hero to the masses.
ANTHONY FAUCI frickED UP!
quote:
Public health lessons learned from biases in coronavirus mortality overestimation
Preprint to be published in "Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness."
Basically saying much of the panic boils down to someone giving bad testimony to the US House Oversight and Reform Committee back on March 11th. This someone incorrectly stated that the CFR of seasonal flu was 0.1%, which is the IFR, which implied that the CFR for SARS 2.0 would be 10 times higher than that. I guess it's possible this someone got confused with the difference between IFR and CFR.
It would be a shame if this someone is a really important person in all this mess. Someone being praised as a hero, where his word is gospel.
Perhaps this someone was given the honor of throwing out the first pitch at a MLB baseball game, and had his own bobble head made.
I'd hate to think that this someone is the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.
In case you haven't figured it out yet, this "someone" is Dr. Anthony Fauci, hero to the masses.
ANTHONY FAUCI frickED UP!
quote:
Results of this critical appraisal reveal information bias and selection bias in coronavirus mortality overestimation, most likely caused by misclassifying an influenza infection fatality rate as a case fatality rate. Public health lessons learned for future infectious disease pandemics include: safeguarding against research biases that may underestimate or overestimate an associated risk of disease and mortality; reassessing the ethics of fear-based public health campaigns; and providing full public disclosure of adverse effects from severe mitigation measures to contain viral transmission.
This post was edited on 9/8/20 at 10:21 am
Posted on 9/8/20 at 8:39 am to WaWaWeeWa
Israeli Vitamin D study.
From Abstract:
From Abstract:
quote:
CONCLUSION In this large observational population study, we show a strong association between vitamin D deficiency and Covid-19 occurrence. After adjustment for baseline characteristics and prior vitamin D levels, acquisition of liquid vitamin D formulations is associated with decreased risk for Covid-19 infection.
Posted on 9/8/20 at 12:30 pm to Sasquatch Smash
Interesting. I think we will learn a lot about viral respiratory infections from the research done on this virus. Vitamin D may become a focal point for influenza as well.
My question with vitamin D has always been a chicken or the egg argument. Are these people having worse outcomes because they have low Vitamin D or are these people more sick initially (long term care, nursing homes) places where they don’t get sun regularly and they are having worse outcomes because they are already more sick. In the later scenario, the vitamin D would be a correlation and not a causation.
I think the key lies in studying younger populations and also races to try to find more evidence.
My question with vitamin D has always been a chicken or the egg argument. Are these people having worse outcomes because they have low Vitamin D or are these people more sick initially (long term care, nursing homes) places where they don’t get sun regularly and they are having worse outcomes because they are already more sick. In the later scenario, the vitamin D would be a correlation and not a causation.
I think the key lies in studying younger populations and also races to try to find more evidence.
This post was edited on 9/8/20 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 9/8/20 at 1:37 pm to WaWaWeeWa
I recently signed up to be a lab rat for a huge study U of A is doing for COVID. They are wanting people that have tested positive and negative for COVID previously. Not just healthcare workers but anyone that works around others (grocery store workers, first responders, daycare workers, etc, etc). Looking at possibility of people getting reinfected with COVID, how long antibodies in those that had COVID lasts, etc.
You have to swab yourself for COVID weekly. Easy nasal swab (not the one that goes deep). You drop off your test to a fed ex drop off. You answer a few weekly questions about if you had symptoms, activity, etc. If you get sick you send another swab as well. Study lasts at least a year. You also get your blood drawn for antibodies a few times a year. During winter months your sample is also tested for flu.
Should be interesting the data they are able to get from this study. I still have to help my 72 year old father (that has numerous medical issues) with all of his appointments. Would be nice knowing my COVID (and flu) status on a weekly basis so I can continue to keep him safe.
You have to swab yourself for COVID weekly. Easy nasal swab (not the one that goes deep). You drop off your test to a fed ex drop off. You answer a few weekly questions about if you had symptoms, activity, etc. If you get sick you send another swab as well. Study lasts at least a year. You also get your blood drawn for antibodies a few times a year. During winter months your sample is also tested for flu.
Should be interesting the data they are able to get from this study. I still have to help my 72 year old father (that has numerous medical issues) with all of his appointments. Would be nice knowing my COVID (and flu) status on a weekly basis so I can continue to keep him safe.
Posted on 9/8/20 at 1:52 pm to WaWaWeeWa
i have been pretty religious with Vit D since covid (i took it regularly prior but made sure it was in my rotation every night since march). Laura fricked up my normal cycle but then i realized that i've been out in the sun for like 7 of the past 9 days, so hopefully that helped balance out not taking a vitamin daily for a few days 
Posted on 9/8/20 at 6:26 pm to SlowFlowPro
Natural sun is 100x better than vitamin D supplements for the average person
Posted on 9/9/20 at 5:49 am to Sasquatch Smash
yeah, i mean who really knows, but it certainly seems to make sense to think that this coronavirus will follow a trajectory similar to the other coronaviridae that have achieved widespread penetrance in human populations.
definitely corresponds to the notion of memory t cells reducing severity of infection etc.
time will tell and it has certainly been painful and deadly potentially building to that stage but i'm a believer.
definitely corresponds to the notion of memory t cells reducing severity of infection etc.
time will tell and it has certainly been painful and deadly potentially building to that stage but i'm a believer.
Posted on 9/9/20 at 4:55 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Yes but for some reason my levels are low, despite being active and outdoors quite a bit. White, 51, female. I’ve been taking vitamin d for a while now. Had to increase it to 10,000.
This post was edited on 9/9/20 at 4:56 pm
Posted on 9/9/20 at 7:50 pm to tiger91
Yes some people still do not achieve normal levels with moderate sun exposure that’s why it’s always good to have your levels checked at some point.
Posted on 9/10/20 at 3:07 pm to WaWaWeeWa
I'm a 71 year old white male. Although I have no health issues I've been wearing a mask and avoiding close contacts since March.
I had never previously had any faith in vitamins. After reading about vitamin D and COVID I started taking 2,600 I.U. of D3 in April. I must have been deficient because I've become significantly stronger since taking D3. Subsequently, I Googled vitamin D and learned that the vitamin is necessary for muscle contraction.
Dr. Campbell was talking about a new study that recommended maintenance of a vitamin D blood level between 40 to 60 nanograms per milliliter. I plan to get my level checked when I have a physical this month.
My friends and family are all supplementing vitamin D.
I had never previously had any faith in vitamins. After reading about vitamin D and COVID I started taking 2,600 I.U. of D3 in April. I must have been deficient because I've become significantly stronger since taking D3. Subsequently, I Googled vitamin D and learned that the vitamin is necessary for muscle contraction.
Dr. Campbell was talking about a new study that recommended maintenance of a vitamin D blood level between 40 to 60 nanograms per milliliter. I plan to get my level checked when I have a physical this month.
My friends and family are all supplementing vitamin D.
Posted on 9/10/20 at 4:17 pm to Whiznot
Your everyday run of the mill multivitamin will have more vitamin D than can be consumed
Just keep it simple and take that
Just keep it simple and take that
Posted on 9/10/20 at 7:50 pm to lsupride87
quote:They are tiny little liquid capsules Of 2000 units each.
Your everyday run of the mill multivitamin will have more vitamin D than can be consumed
I take 4-5 throughout the day with food since they are fat soluble and absorb into your body better when vitamin can cling to a few grams of fat.
Even if you don’t include much fat when you take your vitamin D, you’ll absorb some of it. It’ll just be somewhere around 15-30% less than if you eat some fat with your meal.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 6:28 am to Bullfrog
I was told when I had covid that a combination of A vit D supplement and exposure to sunlight was the way to go. Something about the body being stimulated into releasing the hormones necessary to absorb the vit D.
Who knows.
Who knows.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 8:29 am to Purple Spoon
quote:
I was told when I had covid that a combination of A vit D supplement and exposure to sunlight was the way to go. Something about the body being stimulated into releasing the hormones necessary to absorb the vit D.
So pop the D and mow the grass. Got it.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 6:48 am to S1C EM
I hate to ask what maybe I should know but ...
How do we know for sure that asymptomatic people are spreading this? How do we know that positive tests for asymptomatic people aren’t false positives?
And lastly, is 90 days still believed to be the time that antibodies last?
How do we know for sure that asymptomatic people are spreading this? How do we know that positive tests for asymptomatic people aren’t false positives?
And lastly, is 90 days still believed to be the time that antibodies last?
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