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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 7/31/20 at 10:44 am to WaWaWeeWa
Posted on 7/31/20 at 10:44 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:My doctor is convinced I fall in this category
At this point I don’t think we can exclude the possibility that the antibody tests have dramatically Underestimated the number of infections.
I lost all my taste and had a sore throat 3 weeks ago. I didnt get tested, because there is ZERO reason to. Instead, I stayed home until symptoms were gone
Antibody test showed negative this week
1
Posted on 7/31/20 at 10:57 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
At this point I don’t think we can exclude the possibility that the antibody tests have dramatically Underestimated the number of infections.
we could actually be nearing herd immunity and the studies of T cells being present in 70% of patients could be an indicator of that. Once antibodies fall below detectable levels the only evidence of previous infection would be T cells.
There is no question that antibody tests are underestimating. I think all American epidemiologists should have their eyes glued to Jefferson and Orleans Parishes. These are the first areas in America undergoing a second wave. We’ve been “open” for two and a half months, and so far, not much. More days of data are necessary, but it looks promising.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 12:05 pm to lsupride87
quote:
I lost all my taste and had a sore throat 3 weeks ago. I didnt get tested, because there is ZERO reason to. Instead, I stayed home until symptoms were gone Antibody test showed negative this week
It probably hasn’t been long enough. Studies showed that mild/asymptomatic infections can take much longer to reach the antibody levels needed to test positive.
I would repeat that antibody test in 6-8 weeks
Posted on 7/31/20 at 12:33 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Even with that in mind, I think it can be pretty safely assumed even the antibody tests are grossly underestimating the total infected. Wasn’t the CDC saying that totals could be ranging anywhere from 30% to 75% higher, but using the 30%. I think it is much closer to the 75%
Posted on 7/31/20 at 1:12 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Seroprevalence preprint out of Kenya.
They definitely should look into what's going on in Africa. Very small death toll there, despite having antibody percentages similar to other places; estimating ~5% for the country with only 71 deaths at the time of study.
I'm sure there are lots of factors at play for this, but I'm sure having a younger population has helped. HCQ being over the counter there?
They definitely should look into what's going on in Africa. Very small death toll there, despite having antibody percentages similar to other places; estimating ~5% for the country with only 71 deaths at the time of study.
I'm sure there are lots of factors at play for this, but I'm sure having a younger population has helped. HCQ being over the counter there?
This post was edited on 7/31/20 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 7/31/20 at 2:11 pm to Sasquatch Smash
So my kids physician discouraged an antibody test. He said that it would pick up other Coronavirus antibodies that weren’t necessarily SARS COV V2. So a common cold type thing could show a positive.
Was he full,of,shite?
Was he full,of,shite?
This post was edited on 7/31/20 at 2:12 pm
Posted on 7/31/20 at 2:14 pm to CrownTownHalo
quote:
Was he full,of,shite?
I don't know. Did you ask him about his bowel movements?
But, no, not entirely. There are potential issues when it comes to specificity and sensitivity with the tests.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 3:35 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:No fever. It was about a week of coughing. Not a nasal drip but a deep cough in my chest that almost hurt. Even the week after it was difficult to take a deep breath without some pain. Fatigue for sure. That lasted the full two weeks. At the time I had to be negative for flu before they would give me the covid one and even then they were reluctant because of my age and health. My PCD basically told me to quarantine for 2 weeks whether I could get a test or not. Was able to get one through my wife’s work (Ochsner).
Can you describe your symptoms in March?
Posted on 7/31/20 at 3:48 pm to ell_13
I’m curious if I fall into this category. Fever, dry cough, lethargy and chest tightness (difficult walking up the stairs without being out of breath). Called the doctor but was told they couldn’t test me as I’m under 40 and all tests were being used on 50+ with fever. This was early March after my kids daycare teacher was in the hospital for an unknown respiratory virus (later the daycare shut down for cleaning due to Covid positives). The whole family got this. Took an antibody rest last week and it was negative. Whatever we had in early March matched Covid and I’ve had nothing like it. It was also what I’d consider mild.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 10:17 pm to Scrimpin Gary
Tightness in chest . Feel like I'm tasting blood. I hope no long lasting damage. I want to cry. Body aches
Posted on 8/1/20 at 6:10 am to Boo Krewe
Did you die yet?
Posted on 8/1/20 at 7:17 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:I’m curious. Would the antibody tests naturally get more accurate as we move further from cold/flu season when people were more likely to have recently had something that would cause cross-reactivity?
But, no, not entirely. There are potential issues when it comes to specificity and sensitivity with the tests.
Obviously they should be more accurate as the base rates get to a reasonable level, of especially on the backside of a local outbreak. Plus hopefully the tests, sampling methodology, and analyses improve too.
Posted on 8/1/20 at 9:09 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
move further from cold/flu season when people were more likely to have recently had something that would cause cross-reactivity?
When you say “accurate” it comes off as sounding like you think they are currently inflated.
I would be less concerned about cross reactivity and more concerned about the tests inability to detect patients with mild or asymptomatic cases months ago.
I’m not confident the antibody tests we have can detect an asymptomatic case 6 months ago in February, yet we know they occurred.
I think antibody studies are actually going to show declining rates going forward and it has nothing to do with cross reactivity.
We may have to focus on more specific T cell tests in smaller samples
This post was edited on 8/1/20 at 9:15 am
Posted on 8/1/20 at 9:26 am to Bullfrog
Do you want me too ? Need a snack and sleep
Posted on 8/1/20 at 9:57 am to Boo Krewe
Not necessarily.
Just checking to see if the sorority girls can relax yet.
Just checking to see if the sorority girls can relax yet.
Posted on 8/1/20 at 10:19 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:I was referring to the post from earlier that said
When you say “accurate” it comes off as sounding like you think they are currently inflated.
quote:But I do think they were inflated in the early studies, but the risk of undercounting would probably be greater later on, although the magnitude of the proportional error is less even if the absolute error is greater. In other words, +/- 2% around an estimate of 3% is worse than +/- 5% around an estimate of 25%, despite a larger absolute interval.
He said that it would pick up other Coronavirus antibodies that weren’t necessarily SARS COV V2. So a common cold type thing could show a positive.
Posted on 8/1/20 at 10:25 am to Bullfrog
Ive stopped.caring
Lost any sense of arousal
Lost any sense of arousal
Posted on 8/1/20 at 11:32 am to Boo Krewe
No one should ever die a virgin
Posted on 8/1/20 at 12:05 pm to philly444
In this week’s edition of “JBE and the Dems aren’t over reacting, most of humanity is”
Ireland debating reopening pubs, and the decision has been pushed back:
LINK
Ireland, with 26,000 cases total has been averaging less than 25 cases per day since late May. Overall population 50% higher than Louisiana.
Ireland debating reopening pubs, and the decision has been pushed back:
LINK
Ireland, with 26,000 cases total has been averaging less than 25 cases per day since late May. Overall population 50% higher than Louisiana.
Posted on 8/1/20 at 12:33 pm to philly444
Might happen for me. Chest is tight, hurts to move. Wish I could go for walk
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