re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

quote:

---

but it would not appear that Sweden is anywhere near herd immunity.

---

Are you sure we know where here immunity is with this virus? I don’t think we can say because we don’t know what percentage of the population is naturally immune.

Cases have obviously leveled off in Sweden. So is that all social distancing? Even though they aren’t as social distances as we are yet show the same general trend.

quote:

---

Maybe find some other place to house the positive nursing home patients who aren't sick enough for regular hospital care. China built completely new facilities, but in the US it's probably more practical to adapt existing structures that aren't seeing heavy use right now. Like hotels, convention centers, sports arenas, etc. They could monitor patients there until no longer infectious, or transfer to hospital if they got sicker.

---

Or they could employ iso units in-house which is exactly what we’re doing.

quote:

---

Or they could employ iso units in-house which is exactly what we’re doing.

---

That works too, but ideally the staff, housing structures, including amenities, laundry, food prep, dining, pharmacy and so forth, would be physically separate from Covid negative population.

quote:

---

So all the stuff about Sweden having 20% antibodies, etc. was completely wrong. In the capital, where the epidemic has been the worst, the antibody level was tested at 7.3%.

---

I find that hard to believe. Didn't Oschner determine that more than 8% of the population of Louisiana had the antibodies?

If this is true, what does it say about the lockdown strategy? Sweden stays open and only 7% in its largest city get infected. We shut it down and we have parts of NYC at 30%+.

LINK

This study shows exactly what I have been thinking!

They first tested asymptomatic healthcare workers and found positive asymptomatic cases on nasal swab. Next, they went back and tested for antibodies. Only 25% of those asymptomatic patients developed antibodies despite effectively defeating the virus!

This means the antibody studies are likely under representing how many people have been infected or were exposed and brushed it off without developing antibodies.

BIG BIG news.

quote:

---

You should have antibodies if you’re shedding virus. You didn’t “defeat” it in that sense. Something is fricky

---

This study was done in Birmingham. This isn’t a preprint out of China.

I agree it seems strange, but don’t you think it’s possible T cell immunity could be eliminating the virus before a humoral response can even happen? Or perhaps it occurs at levels that aren’t being detected by the test.

But your tcells didn’t really defeat it if it got a hold enough to cause shedding

It’s possible as the other poster is alluding that you still shed non infectious rna for weeks after “infection” but it still kinda begs the question how long does it take for that process to occur?

I’m worried about false positives/negatives in the assays

Re: Efficacy of lockdowns:

On April 30, FiveThirtyEight published this article as part of a series polling infectious-disease researchers from institutions around the United States about various coronavirus-related topics.

In light of the Georgia reopening move, they asked 17 experts how many cases the state would have per day for the week ending May 16.

quote:

---

The consensus forecast of 1,044 new confirmed cases per day in two weeks suggests that Georgia will see a substantial worsening of the virus’s spread as a result of reopening. The daily number of new confirmed cases is forecast [with 90% confidence] to be somewhere between 579 and 2,292, with six experts indicating that an increase to 2,000 or more new cases a day is plausible.

---

Georgia's COVID-19 Daily Status Report ( LINK)shows, as of the time I'm writing this, average per day week ending May 16: 492

The average - less than half as much as the consensus forecast - was even outside the 90% confidence interval of the expert forecast. It might be tempting to throw out the May 10 number as an outlier, but weekend lulls are absorbed by testing during the week. it's not an outlier, it's a consistent part of the bigger picture - the weekend numbers are low each week.

FiveThirtyEight also asked them to predict what the numbers would be for the same week if Georgia had remained under the stay home order:

quote:

---

Experts believe that the spread of COVID-19 could have been reduced had Georgia not relaxed its stay-at-home order. Under this scenario, experts predicted that Georgia would have seen only 487 new cases per day for the week ending on May 16, a reduction of more than 50 percent in new daily cases compared with the estimates in the open regime.

There was also less uncertainty among experts in their predictions for Georgia’s new daily cases in the world where Georgia did not relax stay-at-home orders. Experts would have expected between 273 and 1,156 new cases per day, representing a spread half as large as the one for the new-case forecast without the stay-at-home orders.

---

Georgia's real numbers (admittedly preliminary at this point) while open are almost dead on for the expert predictions for a continued lockdown - 492 vs 487.

Credit is not mine. It goes to one of the few sane Redditors left.

Tcells defeating the virus to me means it infected very few cells and shed almost no new infectious material and overtook very little cellular machinery. Opsonization never occurred because no, or very few, cells expressed the “I’m fricking infected” markers.

I am not an immunologist by any stretch but I wouldn’t consider any infection lasting longer than a few hours to a day as “defeating” the virus.