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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 5/20/20 at 8:52 pm to Tiguar
Posted on 5/20/20 at 8:52 pm to Tiguar
quote:
I am not an immunologist by any stretch but I wouldn’t consider any infection lasting longer than a few hours to a day as “defeating” the virus.
In my opinion that person should be considered in any infection fatality rate. They survived the virus just as much as someone who gets symptomatic and recovers.
1
Posted on 5/20/20 at 8:54 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Oh no doubt, but that’s a separate discussion. The question is how is it possible for someone to shed RNA but have no antibodies? It takes only a couple days to develop those initial response antibodies. Very peculiar if the virus can cause you to shed for weeks after a 1-2 day exposure.
Posted on 5/20/20 at 9:06 pm to Tiguar
You are right. On closer inspection of the study it’s saying that 25% of the hospital workers seroconverted but only 2.5% had tested positive on PCR. The majority of those who seroconverted were asymptomatic.
I misinterpreted the results.
I misinterpreted the results.
Posted on 5/20/20 at 9:14 pm to WaWaWeeWa
That makes more sense and is still good news IMO.
Posted on 5/21/20 at 6:56 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
I find that hard to believe. Didn't Oschner determine that more than 8% of the population of Louisiana had the antibodies?
If this is true, what does it say about the lockdown strategy? Sweden stays open and only 7% in its largest city get infected. We shut it down and we have parts of NYC at 30%+
With Spain and Italy also producing antibody results that put them about 5%, and also with new numbers from Denmark and Norway that put both of them around 1%, I really think that it's hard to take those NYC numbers at face value. I also think that it's even harder now to believe the Santa Clara results that we argued about so much.
Some of these antibody tests can produce significant numbers of false positives, and it's entirely possible that a lack of test specificity inflated the NYC numbers.
Posted on 5/21/20 at 7:04 am to GOP_Tiger
I think you are comparing entire countries (Spain, italy, etc.) to the single worst hotspot in the US.
It would be more appropriate to compare the entire US to Italy, or compare NYC to Lombardy or an even smaller geographic area.
The positive rate in New York State is even much much lower than NYC itself.
It would be more appropriate to compare the entire US to Italy, or compare NYC to Lombardy or an even smaller geographic area.
The positive rate in New York State is even much much lower than NYC itself.
Posted on 5/21/20 at 7:12 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
In light of the Georgia reopening move, they asked 17 experts how many cases the state would have per day for the week ending May 16.
quote:
The consensus forecast of 1,044 new confirmed cases per day in two weeks suggests that Georgia will see a substantial worsening of the virus’s spread as a result of reopening. The daily number of new confirmed cases is forecast [with 90% confidence] to be somewhere between 579 and 2,292, with six experts indicating that an increase to 2,000 or more new cases a day is plausible.
Georgia's COVID-19 Daily Status Report shows, as of the time I'm writing this, average per day week ending May 16: 492
Everyone overestimated the impact of the limited reopenings that have occurred. And by "everyone," I mean not only those who predicted disaster, but also those who said that the public was desperate to go to restaurants, shops, etc.
After three days of my own business being reopened, I can say that was not the case -- we've had very few people come inside. Most people are still being extremely cautious. My church had a socially distanced service in the sanctuary this past Sunday, and it was great to see my friends there, but so many people chose to stay home. After church, I went to a large restaurant where I would normally have to wait for a table after church, but there were only two tables occupied when I got there.
One of the reasons that I believe that we will virtually eliminate COVID-19 this summer is that I think that many people will continue to be very cautious until they feel safe.
Posted on 5/21/20 at 7:22 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
The positive rate in New York State is even much much lower than NYC itself.
Right. But no district in Spain had a 15% antibody level. I think that the level in Madrid was 13%. Stockholm to NYC is a fair comparison. I never saw the Italian results broken out by province. Geneva had a significant outbreak and was at 9%.
I don't have time right now to try to calculate deaths per population level and see how the numbers in, say, Madrid compare to those in NYC, but my gut is that the NYC number just doesn't make sense.
Posted on 5/21/20 at 8:16 am to GOP_Tiger
Population density is also a factor as well as public transportation. We also don’t know if NYC was seeded earlier.
Those factors could easily explain the difference between 15 and 25 percent infected.
Those factors could easily explain the difference between 15 and 25 percent infected.
Posted on 5/21/20 at 9:15 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
With Spain and Italy also producing antibody results that put them about 5%, and also with new numbers from Denmark and Norway that put both of them around 1%, I really think that it's hard to take those NYC numbers at face value. I also think that it's even harder now to believe the Santa Clara results that we argued about so much.
The Santa Clara case could definitely be the result of false positives (overall case count way too low to extract significance).
However, I think NYC is high enough in count that the false positives don't make too much of a difference.
Looking at the body count: Spain as a whole is at 596 deaths per million. NYC is at 1933 deaths per million.
So, Spain as a whole being 5% with NYC 20%+ passes the funny look test to me.
Posted on 5/21/20 at 10:16 am to LSU Wayne
quote:
I'm assuming everyone's seen this video that's been making the rounds of a TV show from 2003 that closely parallels everything that's going on today.
Wow that’s pretty amazing coincidence
Posted on 5/21/20 at 11:00 am to Sasquatch Smash
Certainly not conclusive but that analysis is intriguing. I had the usual single dose as a child and another in boot camp, so I guess I'm as covered as I am going to get. I wonder if there will be a run on the MMR vaccine at some point. There doesn't appear to be any downside other than availability.
Posted on 5/21/20 at 11:05 am to MadDogs
Yeah. Definitely looks like simple correlation at this point, also happens to be the younger/healthier age group as well, but that inflection point around ~50 years old might mean that there is something there.
This post was edited on 5/21/20 at 11:06 am
Posted on 5/21/20 at 12:50 pm to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
Yeah. Definitely looks like simple correlation at this point, also happens to be the younger/healthier age group as well, but that inflection point around ~50 years old might mean that there is something there.
I would really like to know more about the children who have developed symptomatic cases, particularly severe ones. I'm wondering if there's a correlation to those and those children possibly having not been vaccinated.
Posted on 5/21/20 at 1:07 pm to S1C EM
quote:
I would really like to know more about the children who have developed symptomatic cases, particularly severe ones. I'm wondering if there's a correlation to those and those children possibly having not been vaccinated.
Would love to know more about children in general. Have a 2 month old at home and my wife is over the top nuts.
Posted on 5/21/20 at 1:12 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
quote:
Would love to know more about children in general. Have a 2 month old at home and my wife is over the top nuts.
Well, I have a 12, 8 and 4-year-old. I'm not overly concerned and realize that when public schools open back up, all bets are off. I just want to know why the kids who develop symptoms do so. With so many anti-vaxxers out there now, I'm thinking there is a connection. Kids who didn't get their MMR......
Posted on 5/21/20 at 1:16 pm to S1C EM
quote:
I have a 12, 8 and 4-year-old
Translation: your entire household has probably built immunity against everything under the sun haha
Posted on 5/21/20 at 1:20 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
quote:
Translation: your entire household has probably built immunity against everything under the sun haha
You're not wrong. I did have an antibody test added to some routine bloodwork last week and it was negative. I was mildly bummed. Had my best bloodwork results of all time otherwise, though!
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