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Posted on 5/16/20 at 8:45 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
The Santa Clara paper. There are links to the revised version in the article. There really aren’t any major changes to their conclusions.
Posted on 5/16/20 at 8:47 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Interesting considering how much shite he got for that and questioning if he had finally become what he had always pointed out in faulty research.
He's either doubling down on being really wrong the first time in his career or he's right. What odds does anyone want to take on that
He's either doubling down on being really wrong the first time in his career or he's right. What odds does anyone want to take on that
This post was edited on 5/16/20 at 8:49 pm
Posted on 5/17/20 at 10:36 am to rds dc
Overall, good news as Hospitalization and Deaths continue to decline in the US, R0 is approaching 1 and we haven't seen an explosion of new cases in areas that have started to lift restrictions 
Posted on 5/17/20 at 2:11 pm to rds dc
quote:
R0 is approaching 1
Where is a good website to look for R0 statistics for all the US?
Posted on 5/17/20 at 5:11 pm to rds dc
How much of that effect is related to NYC alone?
That is, if you removed nyc’s numbers, where would the rest of the country be trending?
That is, if you removed nyc’s numbers, where would the rest of the country be trending?
Posted on 5/17/20 at 5:30 pm to escatawpabuckeye
Probably going up then it’s going to come down just like New York. I wouldn’t be surprised if the area under every curve is proportional to population density. I would love to see an analysis of that.
Posted on 5/17/20 at 5:32 pm to escatawpabuckeye
Recently, NYC is one of the main places fueling the downward trend.
NYC still has a lot of cases but it's been well under 1% daily increase for a while. Much better than many other areas of the country.
Some recent places I've seen mentioned as currently trending up statistically were North Carolina, Minnesota and Maryland. Illinois, Virginia and Texas as well in the past couple of weeks.
NYC still has a lot of cases but it's been well under 1% daily increase for a while. Much better than many other areas of the country.
Some recent places I've seen mentioned as currently trending up statistically were North Carolina, Minnesota and Maryland. Illinois, Virginia and Texas as well in the past couple of weeks.
This post was edited on 5/17/20 at 6:25 pm
Posted on 5/17/20 at 7:14 pm to rds dc
The R value right now is way under 1. Today marks 13 straight days where the national number of new cases is smaller than the same day the previous week.
Today also makes the 9th straight day where the number of deaths was lower than the same day of the previous week.
There were a shocking 422,024 new tests today, by far a new record and the first-ever day with over 400,000.
That makes for a positive test rate of only 5%.
The data would seem to validate my belief that we are eliminating COVID-19.
LINK
Today also makes the 9th straight day where the number of deaths was lower than the same day of the previous week.
There were a shocking 422,024 new tests today, by far a new record and the first-ever day with over 400,000.
That makes for a positive test rate of only 5%.
The data would seem to validate my belief that we are eliminating COVID-19.
LINK
Posted on 5/17/20 at 8:55 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
we are eliminating COVID-19.
Posted on 5/17/20 at 9:23 pm to GetCocky11
There's a storm brewing:
Colorado Sun - Nearly a quarter of the people Colorado said died from coronavirus don’t have COVID-19 on their death certificate
Colorado Sun - Nearly a quarter of the people Colorado said died from coronavirus don’t have COVID-19 on their death certificate
quote:
In a separate report by CBS4, Montezuma County Coroner George Deavers said CDPHE classified an alcohol-poisoning death in his county as a coronavirus death
This post was edited on 5/17/20 at 9:53 pm
Posted on 5/17/20 at 10:21 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Just imagine the kind of shite that’s happening in New York
Posted on 5/17/20 at 10:24 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
All kind of absurd how much posturing over death counts there is. There will never be utterly precise counts since just like someone with heart problems who has a heart attack after being in auto accident, there's gray area with a percentage of cases.
The best idea is probably just looking at average death rates.
Colorado, for example,
"In 2019, 6,761 people died in Colorado during those two months (March and April), but this year the number of deaths in that same time frame increased by 1,341 to an estimated 8,102 deaths. "
Not too big of a conspiracy since deaths would seem to be in general neighborhood of the estimates.
https://www.denverpost.com/2020/05/15/coronavirus-covid-deaths-colorado/
The best idea is probably just looking at average death rates.
Colorado, for example,
"In 2019, 6,761 people died in Colorado during those two months (March and April), but this year the number of deaths in that same time frame increased by 1,341 to an estimated 8,102 deaths. "
Not too big of a conspiracy since deaths would seem to be in general neighborhood of the estimates.
https://www.denverpost.com/2020/05/15/coronavirus-covid-deaths-colorado/
Posted on 5/18/20 at 8:10 am to wm72
quote:
All kind of absurd how much posturing over death counts there is.
Not really. How hard is it? Like the governor of Colorado said, no one cares how many died with Covid. Lets just stick to how many died of it. And the attending physician at the time of death is the one to make that call.
There is a lot of frickery going on with these counts. If you don't understand that, then I don't know what else to say.
Edit: Oh, and if you want to compare mortality stats, wait until the end of the year and then compare 2020 with prior years. I am interested to see how those numbers come out.
This post was edited on 5/18/20 at 8:18 am
Posted on 5/18/20 at 8:49 am to wm72
quote:
All kind of absurd how much posturing over death counts there is. There will never be utterly precise counts...
I partly agree with you take.. there will never be "precise" counts...
However.. The question/issue of deliberately padding the numbers is not absurd imo..
Posted on 5/18/20 at 9:47 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
There is a lot of frickery going on with these counts.
quote:
if you want to compare mortality stats
I do want to compare the mortality stats.
It seems to be the best way to get a clear --if not exact to the number-- idea.
It's just common sense to think that if Colorado has 1300+ extra deaths at a time when many causes like auto accidents etc will likely be lower that a hypothetical perfect count may find:
1. 200 cases to subtract where a co-morbity like cancer is a more compelling cause
2. But would also be adding just that many, if not more, that have not been counted of people dying at home without a test.
NYC, for another example, had around 2000 extra deaths just for April not attributed to Covid in the official count.
Many people are dying at home since it seems agreed upon by about everyone at this point that a lot of Covid deaths follow the pattern of being sick but not seeming critical and taking a sudden turn.
You do realize that a better argument can be made that overall Covid deaths are generally being under counted if anything?
This post was edited on 5/18/20 at 9:57 am
Posted on 5/18/20 at 10:04 am to wm72
quote:
NYC, for another example, had around 2000 extra deaths just for April not attributed to Covid in the official count.
Many people are dying at home since it seems agreed upon by about everyone at this point that a lot of Covid deaths follow the pattern of being sick but not seeming critical and taking a sudden turn.
You do realize that a better argument can be made that overall Covid deaths are generally being under counted if anything?
Maybe some of those are CoviD deaths, but many will likely come out to be not seeking treatment for something they normally would have out of the fear promoted by CoviD.
Posted on 5/18/20 at 10:09 am to wm72
quote:
NYC, for another example, had around 2000 extra deaths just for April not attributed to Covid in the official count. Many people are dying at home since it seems agreed upon by about everyone at this point that a lot of Covid deaths follow the pattern of being sick but not seeming critical and taking a sudden turn. You do realize that a better argument can be made that overall Covid deaths are generally being under counted if anything?
People are dying because the healthcare system has been disrupted by the shutdown policies. If you drastically reduce the availability of health care, and at the same time tell people to stay in their homes to avoid getting a deadly virus, then you're absolutely going to see an increase in deaths due to the regular prevalence of hundreds of diseases. That would have happened if we'd done these lockdown procedures as a trial run without any virus.
Older people in particular don't do well in an environment of isolation and restricted access to health care; they heavily depend on regular monitoring and care from public and private support systems.
This post was edited on 5/18/20 at 10:16 am
Posted on 5/18/20 at 10:33 am to wdhalgren
My point has not been that no "extra" deaths compared to average were not a regular heart attack of someone that didn't want or didn't have regular access to an ambulance.
My point is that this is certainly not all of the extra deaths. Common sense dictates that some, likely many, of those are also due to Covid.
So, naming only cases here and there that may be a stretch to attribute to Covid effaces the point that there are likely many more that should be attributed to Covid.
My point is that this is certainly not all of the extra deaths. Common sense dictates that some, likely many, of those are also due to Covid.
So, naming only cases here and there that may be a stretch to attribute to Covid effaces the point that there are likely many more that should be attributed to Covid.
Posted on 5/18/20 at 10:57 am to wm72
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