re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

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No confirmed ages for the remainder of those deaths? Test confirmed vs. presumed?

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I don’t think Spain is counting very many presumed deaths because they had nearly 7,000 additional excess deaths through April 27th (about 30% higher than official totals) and I believe that some of the death data is is still incomplete so it may be more like 9,000 or 10,000.

I think the reason so many of those deaths aren’t categorized is that it can take a lot more time confirming the specific demographic information, especially when compiling data from a bunch of different locations.

For example, in the United States, most states report their deaths to the CDC within a few weeks, while Connecticut and North Carolina are like 2 months behind. And then categorizing the cause of deaths, let alone the specific demographics, takes some time as well.

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This is largely a old person 70+ issue in all material purposes.

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On average, the about 80% of the deaths are from those 65+, and that’s with far more infected (as portion of total infections) <18 or under 65 in genral.

In NYC, about 74% of the deaths are from those 65+. And NYC is a bit younger than the US population overall too. So in NYC, it’s 8-10 deadlier than the flu (it may even be less deadly than the US overall), and it’s killing a greater proportion (or at least similar) under 65 than would be expected than the normal flu.

Granted that still means those younger have a very small chance of dying compared to those older, but that’s true in life in general, especially for diseases/illnesses.

Kumite just got cancelled too..

There have been multiple yeas long studies on the effects of unemployment and poverty on health. This isn't an "opinion" it's actual science.
Here is one published study on twins from Sweeden. I could post hundreds but I don't want to waste my time on a doomer.

LINK

Back to the prison testing topic. Check out this research on false negatives in PCR. So it’s pretty much impossible for a prison to test 98% positive at a given time. Somebody else can do the math I already know the odds of that are greater than a million to one.

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Over the 4 days of infection before the typical time of symptom onset (day 5), the probability of a false-negative result in an infected person decreases from 100% (95% CI, 100% to 100%) on day 1 to 67% (CI, 27% to 94%) on day 4. On the day of symptom onset, the median false-negative rate was 38% (CI, 18% to 65%). This decreased to 20% (CI, 12% to 30%) on day 8 (3 days after symptom onset) then began to increase again, from 21% (CI, 13% to 31%) on day 9 to 66% (CI, 54% to 77%) on day 21.

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Annals of Internal Medicine

I have been against a prolonged lockdown even while still in the hospital. I am and was for social distancing and protecting your face with a mask. N95 mask if possible. Open it all back up. Let's just protect ourselves to the best of our ability and be freaking sensible doing it. We can still have football even if they have to limit the size of the crowds. If you are 75 yrs old with copd then you should probably not attend a football game and furthermore you should do your best to stay inside your home and limit guests until this is under control. July might be an entirely different world out there concerning this virus than it is right now.

I still think the shutdowns were the right thing to do at the time but it's past time to move on and learn to live with the threat.

I am a health care worker. I had covid and was sick for a grand total of 3 days. My boss has positive antibodies and shes still working. Open this shite up and let the idiot states, MI, Maine, Cali, etc collapse like dying stars.

The hollywood fueled gravy train and commitment to freebies and unreasonable cost of living was a dog that was always going to have its day.

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But how does an 85% positive rate look? Still questionable results?

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Very questionable if done as one round of testing. I guess more of a possibility if tested over periods of weeks but I still think it’s very unlikely given the probabilities of false negatives.

John Ioannidis responda to critics

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John Ioannidis: Well, we've heard from several people. And I think that they're happy that we have addressed the main issues that were raised on the first round. I also saw that [Columbia University statistician] Andrew Gelman, who was probably the most critical voice in the first round, has posted his appraisal of the revised version, which I think is very reasonable.

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JI: Yeah, but this is entirely expected. Infection fatality rate is not like Avogadro's number. It's not a constant, like in a chemical experiment, the Km of an enzyme reaction. It's affected both by how you count the [numerator] and how you count the denominator, and who are the people in the [numerator] and who are the people in the denominator. So, the case mix is very different in different locations. And the way that the serious cases were managed, or could be managed, is very different in different locations.

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JI: Well, let's go back and check the exact announcement. [Note: The WHO announcement in question, from early March, specifies that "3.4 percent of reported cases have died."] That was at the time when WHO had sent an envoy to China. And [the WHO envoy] came back and he said there's no asymptomatic cases. Just go back and see what the statement was. He said there's hardly any asymptomatic cases, it's very serious and has a case fatality of 3.4 percemt. Of course, that [fatality rate] was gradually dialed back to 1 percent or 0.9 percent. And these are the numbers that went into calculations, and these are the numbers that are still in many of the calculations, you know, until very recently. You know, 1 percent is, is probably like the disaster case, maybe in some places in Queens, for example, it may be 1 percent, because you have all that perfect storm of nursing homes, and nosocomial infection [an infection that originates in a hospital], and no hospital system functioning. In many other places, it's much, much lower.

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Stands by his paper and results