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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 5/12/20 at 11:30 am to TheCaterpillar
Posted on 5/12/20 at 11:30 am to TheCaterpillar
0
Posted on 5/12/20 at 11:33 am to MarcusQuinn
quote:
Fear of a second wave, of some degree, isn’t being negative, it’s being realistic.
Expectation of a second wave is realistic. Fear of a second wave is irrational. So our ICUs are 80% full instead of 40% full? Big deal!
Posted on 5/12/20 at 11:50 am to Penrod
Speaking of 2nd wave fears, apparently Wuhan had a flare up and they’re planning to test all 11 million residents over the course of the next 10 days (whether that’s possible is yet to be seen).
Tweet with picture of announcement (untranslated)
Tweet with picture of announcement (untranslated)
quote:
Here we go. Wuhan will test all its 11 million citizens in a 10-day sprint. Something is up, but massive response
Posted on 5/12/20 at 12:12 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
(whether that’s possible is yet to be seen).
I predict we will be told they did it in 8 days, it was a massive success, and the world will praise China for their efficient and science-based approach.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 12:13 pm to notiger1997
The rebuttal is actually very easy:
1) Reported cases in the US have been declining down in the past week, even as testing has increased. We haven't been "holding steady" lately -- actual infections have been in a steady decline since not long after the shutdowns.
2) Warmer weather will further decrease the spread. There's now lots of evidence for this. The latest paper that came out estimates that every degree Celsius that the temperature increases results in a 3% drop in R value (transmissibility of the virus). Since the average US temperature will go up 3.7 degrees C in the next month, that should result in an 11% decrease in transmissibility (with even more to come in July and August).
3) Increased masking is continuing to reduce the spread. More and more people are wearing masks every single day, and that significantly drops the R value.
4) The modest reopenings that are happening will only have a very mild effect. Employees are wearing masks, there social distancing inside businesses, enhanced disinfecting protocols, etc. Besides, there's evidence that the initial spread of the disease was largely driven by superspreading events. There are still going to be restricitons all over the country that prevent big concerts, sporting events, etc. Besides all that, reopening does not mean that people's behavior immediately reverts to what it was before the epidemic. Lots of people will be very cautious and mostly stay home.
5) Testing is continuing to increase, which helps us identify more positive cases and isolate them before they spread the disease. A significant development just in the last few days was the release of a new test that can be done in just a few minutes in a doctor's office.
6) Because the virus has already infected so many people in key transmission vectors (prisoners, meat plant workers, New Yorkers, etc.) there is already significant immunity in places that have been nodes that have spread the virus. That lowers the R value and will continue to lower it.
1) Reported cases in the US have been declining down in the past week, even as testing has increased. We haven't been "holding steady" lately -- actual infections have been in a steady decline since not long after the shutdowns.
2) Warmer weather will further decrease the spread. There's now lots of evidence for this. The latest paper that came out estimates that every degree Celsius that the temperature increases results in a 3% drop in R value (transmissibility of the virus). Since the average US temperature will go up 3.7 degrees C in the next month, that should result in an 11% decrease in transmissibility (with even more to come in July and August).
3) Increased masking is continuing to reduce the spread. More and more people are wearing masks every single day, and that significantly drops the R value.
4) The modest reopenings that are happening will only have a very mild effect. Employees are wearing masks, there social distancing inside businesses, enhanced disinfecting protocols, etc. Besides, there's evidence that the initial spread of the disease was largely driven by superspreading events. There are still going to be restricitons all over the country that prevent big concerts, sporting events, etc. Besides all that, reopening does not mean that people's behavior immediately reverts to what it was before the epidemic. Lots of people will be very cautious and mostly stay home.
5) Testing is continuing to increase, which helps us identify more positive cases and isolate them before they spread the disease. A significant development just in the last few days was the release of a new test that can be done in just a few minutes in a doctor's office.
6) Because the virus has already infected so many people in key transmission vectors (prisoners, meat plant workers, New Yorkers, etc.) there is already significant immunity in places that have been nodes that have spread the virus. That lowers the R value and will continue to lower it.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 12:23 pm to notiger1997
quote:
the fear of second round of deadly corona
Maybe you can use history as a lesson as to why we may have handled this incorrectly, vis-a-vis quarantining everyone (Wiki info regarding 2018 Spanish Flu):
quote:
Deadly second wave
The second wave of the 1918 pandemic was much more deadly than the first. The first wave had resembled typical flu epidemics; those most at risk were the sick and elderly, while younger, healthier people recovered easily. By August, when the second wave began in France, Sierra Leone, and the United States, the virus had mutated to a much more deadly form. October 1918 was the month with the highest fatality rate of the whole pandemic.
This increased severity has been attributed to the circumstances of the First World War. In civilian life, natural selection favors a mild strain. Those who get very ill stay home, and those mildly ill continue with their lives, preferentially spreading the mild strain. In the trenches, natural selection was reversed. Soldiers with a mild strain stayed where they were, while the severely ill were sent on crowded trains to crowded field hospitals, spreading the deadlier virus. The second wave began, and the flu quickly spread around the world again. Consequently, during modern pandemics, health officials pay attention when the virus reaches places with social upheaval (looking for deadlier strains of the virus).
The fact that most of those who recovered from first-wave infections had become immune showed that it must have been the same strain of flu. This was most dramatically illustrated in Copenhagen, which escaped with a combined mortality rate of just 0.29% (0.02% in the first wave and 0.27% in the second wave) because of exposure to the less-lethal first wave. For the rest of the population, the second wave was far more deadly; the most vulnerable people were those like the soldiers in the trenches – adults who were young and fit.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 12:28 pm to Sasquatch Smash
More alarm bells from the media ( LA Times) concerning the repercussions of the economic shutdown.
"If it saves one life..."
"If it saves one life..."
Posted on 5/12/20 at 12:40 pm to Sasquatch Smash
Covid Toes.
Apparently a real thing.
I looked at the images as said to myself, "Looks alot like frostbite." (Which as a former ski instructor, I've had several times... )
Apparently a real thing.
I looked at the images as said to myself, "Looks alot like frostbite." (Which as a former ski instructor, I've had several times... )
This post was edited on 5/12/20 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 5/12/20 at 12:43 pm to Lonnie Utah
quote:
I looked at the images as said to myself, "Looks alot like frostbite." (Which as a former ski instructor, I've had several times... )
That's what's been going around for a couple weeks when the news of this inflammatory stuff affecting kids and teens started breaking.
"Frostbite" has been used to describe the appearance of the toes and whatnot.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 1:00 pm to Sasquatch Smash
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/9/20 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 5/12/20 at 1:20 pm to Scruffy
quote:
We will pay for our idiotic decisions for years.
People are going to die one way or another, the latest estimates were 75k from suicide or drug dependency based off of this situation.
The argument is, those 75k will be predominately healthier and younger compared to the group that is most susceptible to the virus.
So whats the right choice? Save the economy and younger/producers or sacrifice the future of in order to try to save the most susceptible
Posted on 5/12/20 at 5:48 pm to lsupride87
Is Kawasaki Disease going to be the next FEAR thing they use to close down schools in the fall?
Posted on 5/12/20 at 6:34 pm to GetCocky11
quote:
Is Kawasaki Disease going to be the next FEAR thing they use to close down schools in the fall?
Yes, which I heard a segment with a doc earlier who said it is very treatable if started early. Rashes and Fever are the indicators, so should be pretty easy to catch.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 7:17 pm to Lsut81
quote:
Rashes and Fever are the indicators, so should be pretty easy to catch.
Unless pediatricians are told to assume this is the culprit, they will first misdiagnose and send kids home with steroid creams and ibuprofen.
So how prevalent is this now?
This post was edited on 5/12/20 at 7:17 pm
Posted on 5/12/20 at 7:32 pm to S1C EM
quote:
So how prevalent is this now?
30 cases in US and all in the NE is what I saw earlier. 2 deaths
Posted on 5/12/20 at 7:53 pm to Lsut81
quote:
30 cases in US and all in the NE is what I saw earlier. 2 deaths
Interesting. Doesn’t seem like a lot, especially in that area. The two deaths were kids, though? They died of Kawasaki disease?
Posted on 5/12/20 at 8:54 pm to Scruffy
quote:
And like I’ve said in other posts, this is how international conflict starts.
Calm down and stop fear mongering. There won’t be an international conflict over this.
Your track record with predicting the effects of this virus isn’t very good.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 8:56 pm to GetCocky11
quote:
Is Kawasaki Disease going to be the next FEAR thing they use to close down schools in the fall?
Probably. No smoking gun on what causes Kawasaki even before this, and it’s a disease that, using rough yearly numbers, gives the US 400 cases per month.
No talk about if this is atypical of the usual disease or a huge spike in number of cases compared to normal, from what I’ve seen. It’s possible this is the result of people being locked inside away from allergens or something considering not all the kids are testing losing for SARS 2.0.
This post was edited on 5/12/20 at 9:08 pm
Posted on 5/12/20 at 9:06 pm to Lsut81
quote:Apparently there are 100 in New York State alone, and the other places (Boston, Philadelphia, UK, Spain) with a number of cases are among the hardest hit places worldwide .
30 cases in US and all in the NE is what I saw earlier. 2 deaths
Posted on 5/12/20 at 9:11 pm to Lsut81
quote:I like how a model that some random guy, who seemed to make a good faith effort with a reasonable explanation of his projections and the uncertainty around it, is accepted as fact, but reasonable projections of a over a million dead is dismissed.
the latest estimates were 75k from suicide or drug dependency based off of this situation.
Not to mention, I think there has been a decrease in the mortality from things like accidents, all infectious diseases, etc. so the younger population has actually faired better than usual.
So in that sense, some of those at-risk for the “deaths of despair,” have actually fared better lately.
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