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Started By
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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 5/12/20 at 9:11 pm to Sasquatch Smash
Posted on 5/12/20 at 9:11 pm to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
No talk about if this is atypical of the usual disease or a huge spike in number of cases compared to normal, from what I’ve seen.
Some U.K. medical society (May have been pediatrics) said all this talk of Kawasaki’s disease is nonsense. They said the total number of Kawasaki’s they usually see is actually down. I can’t find the link but I saw it a few days ago.
2
Posted on 5/12/20 at 9:23 pm to WaWaWeeWa
No more being a dick.
It doesn’t matter anymore anyway.
It doesn’t matter anymore anyway.
This post was edited on 5/12/20 at 9:30 pm
Posted on 5/12/20 at 9:27 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
but reasonable projections of a over a million dead is dismissed.
What made it a reasonable projection?
Posted on 5/12/20 at 9:40 pm to GetCocky11
quote:With an infection fatality ratio between, 0.7% and 1%, only 30% to 43% would need to get infected to reach 1 million deaths. And since 60% or more would need to get infected to reach herd immunity levels, then that would result in 1.39 to 1.99 million deaths, and the IFR could be as low as 0.5% to reach 1 million deaths with herd immunity (but New York basically rules that low of a figure out).
What made it a reasonable projection?
So a million deaths is pretty much a lower bound, given the contagiousness and the mortality of those who get infected.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 9:46 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
With an infection fatality ratio between, 0.7% and 1%,
That is most likely higher than reality. Garbage in, garbage out model.
But that model certainly looks good for shocking headlines.
quote:
and the IFR could be as low as 0.5%
Probably even lower than that.
This post was edited on 5/12/20 at 9:50 pm
Posted on 5/12/20 at 9:59 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:I think with the likelihood that all infections, even including those who were infected with COVID-19, being down for children since the vector for easily spreading any and all infectious diseases (school) has been out of session, that it’s likely that Kawasaki (or similar) illnesses would be down.
Some U.K. medical society (May have been pediatrics) said all this talk of Kawasaki’s disease is nonsense. They said the total number of Kawasaki’s they usually see is actually down. I can’t find the link but I saw it a few days ago.
That being said, it doesn’t mean the few who were infected with COVID-19 aren’t more likely to have a complication like that than usual, or all complications in general.
People don’t seem to realize just how not severe the flu is for children, since only about 1 in almost 21,000 symptomatic infections results in death for those under 18 on average (median over last 9 years is 1 in almost 24,000) and it’s and more like 1 in about 25,000 (average) and about 28,000 (median) considerable only about 84% of flu cases are symptomatic.
So even if COVID-19 is 7 or 8 times more fatal for all populations, then that’s only 1 in 3,000 to 4,000 fatalities for those under 18, and similarly, there will likely be far fewer complications than adults, which have a fatality rate about 40 times children. In addition, since far fewer are likely infected than usual relative to adults (with schools being out; upwards of 30% of flu infections are under 18, COVID-19 looks more like 3%) we’re likely to see far fewer deaths and complications relative to adults than usual.
But that doesn’t mean it’s less severe and fatal relative to the normal flu for those under 18 as those older.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 10:09 pm to GetCocky11
quote:NYC has had 20,237 deaths, and with an average of 3 weeks from infection to death, that puts the vast majority of infections on or before April 21st.
Probably even lower than that.
The antibody data around that time indicated between 20-25 percent were infected, but let’s even add 5 percent and say it’s between 20 and 30 percent.
That puts New York City’s IFR between 0.8% and 1.2%, and NYC is a bit younger than the rest of the US. But even if we account for the fact that there as we fewer infections among those 18 and under (the least fatal) that only adjusts it down to about 0.6% to 1%.
So the NYC data basically rules out anything lower than 0.5%, and it’s probably more around 0.8 to 0.9 percent. The advantages elsewhere are that it is/was easier to spread in NYC (especially since it was spreading before anyone knew it) than pretty much anywhere else in the United States.
This post was edited on 5/12/20 at 10:10 pm
Posted on 5/12/20 at 10:31 pm to GetCocky11
I don’t know if it’ll get lower than 0.5 (with current treatment).
One thing to keep in mind is the population distribution of the US averages ok, but doesn’t come close to looking like a pyramid, In particular Gen X is such a small generation and the Boomers are larger in number creating a dog bone shape in the middle age brackets.
For instance, there are more people in the 55-59 year old age bracket than either the 35-39 year old or 45-49 year old age bracket.
LINK
Note: In a normal, growing population that chart would look like an actual pyramid (i.e there should be more 4 year olds than 60 year olds).
As for the kids, it looks like they may pretty resilient to even getting infected to begin with. This is great news for society and will lower the threshold requirements for herd immunity (schools not likely to cause spread and susceptible population not 100%), but we’ll lose the dampening effect they would have on IFR.
Putting 2 and 2 together: To counteract the older population which is likely to have a IFR >0.5%, you need a lot of sick younger people to get it and recover. However, the middle generations are smaller in numbers than the older generation. And the youngest generation (which would be the ultimate anchor in IFR), isn’t even getting sick so they won’t add a denominator effect.
One thing to keep in mind is the population distribution of the US averages ok, but doesn’t come close to looking like a pyramid, In particular Gen X is such a small generation and the Boomers are larger in number creating a dog bone shape in the middle age brackets.
For instance, there are more people in the 55-59 year old age bracket than either the 35-39 year old or 45-49 year old age bracket.
LINK
Note: In a normal, growing population that chart would look like an actual pyramid (i.e there should be more 4 year olds than 60 year olds).
As for the kids, it looks like they may pretty resilient to even getting infected to begin with. This is great news for society and will lower the threshold requirements for herd immunity (schools not likely to cause spread and susceptible population not 100%), but we’ll lose the dampening effect they would have on IFR.
Putting 2 and 2 together: To counteract the older population which is likely to have a IFR >0.5%, you need a lot of sick younger people to get it and recover. However, the middle generations are smaller in numbers than the older generation. And the youngest generation (which would be the ultimate anchor in IFR), isn’t even getting sick so they won’t add a denominator effect.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 10:36 pm to BRIllini07
quote:I just don’t think we can say this with kids out of school which is where the flu and other infectious diseases spread so easily, especially since it’s twice as infectious as the flu.
As for the kids, it looks like they may pretty resilient to even getting infected to begin with.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 11:01 pm to Centinel
Fear of a second wave and the possible consequences is entirely different than fear of personal infection and death.
This post was edited on 5/12/20 at 11:17 pm
Posted on 5/12/20 at 11:16 pm to Penrod
How about fear of closed businesses, fear of limited ability to travel, fear of closed schools, fear of a depressed economy, etc. Is that irrational? And a 40% increase in ICU patients will be terrifying for somebody.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 6:16 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
since far fewer are likely infected than usual relative to adults (with schools being out
You keep saying this like schools being out are the reason kids aren’t getting infected and it’s not true. We don’t know why kids aren’t getting infected or spreading it but it’s doubtful that it’s because school is out.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 7:06 am to touchdownjeebus
how much is it now? we have more than 20 thousand cases
This post was edited on 5/13/20 at 7:08 am
Posted on 5/13/20 at 8:17 am to WaWaWeeWa
Ochsner has one case of what they are calling “pediatric inflammatory syndrome”
However, we have actually seen less acute organ inflammatory emergencies and less presentations of Kawasaki in our hospitals than normal since the outbreak.....
You won’t find a single doctor say this “Kawasaki” or “inflammatory syndrome” isn’t extremely rare and something in the grand scheme of things shouldn’t be a worry or something to truly focus on
But buckeye vol gonna buckeye vol
However, we have actually seen less acute organ inflammatory emergencies and less presentations of Kawasaki in our hospitals than normal since the outbreak.....
You won’t find a single doctor say this “Kawasaki” or “inflammatory syndrome” isn’t extremely rare and something in the grand scheme of things shouldn’t be a worry or something to truly focus on
But buckeye vol gonna buckeye vol
Posted on 5/13/20 at 8:30 am to lsupride87
quote:
A 113-year-old woman - believed to be the oldest woman in Spain - has recovered from the coronavirus, officials have said.
Maria Branyas was diagnosed with Covid-19 after the country went into lockdown in March.
But after weeks in isolation, Ms Branyas recovered, having suffered only mild symptoms.
It means she has lived through the flu pandemic of 1918-19, the 1936-39 Spanish Civil War and the coronavirus
Posted on 5/13/20 at 8:48 am to Scruffy
quote:booo
No more being a dick.
It doesn’t matter anymore anyway.
Scruffy is actually a pediatrician, scruffy needs to dick punch people using children to now fear monger
Make no mistake, it is no coincidence as more people are starting to lose fear over the virus, the media and others quickly try and use the last hand they have: using children as their pawn for fear
This post was edited on 5/13/20 at 8:49 am
Posted on 5/13/20 at 9:02 am to Tiguar
quote:
efficient and science-based approach.
This phrase would make clay jenkins happy.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 9:32 am to lsupride87
quote:
But buckeye vol gonna buckeye vol
He's been hilarious during this. Truly an elite scientific mind
Posted on 5/13/20 at 10:27 am to MarcusQuinn
quote:
Fear of a second wave
What if this is the second wave?
Has anyone come across anything like that?
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