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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

Posted on 4/19/20 at 1:40 pm to
Posted by Lsut81
Member since Jun 2005
85713 posts
Posted on 4/19/20 at 1:40 pm to
quote:

Those are extremely rare circumstances.

Very few industries have seen an uptick in demand during all of this.


Yeah, it’s happening, don’t get me wrong, but I’d bet for every increase in pay, there are 10 others getting screwed.
Posted by Scruffy
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
77889 posts
Posted on 4/19/20 at 1:49 pm to
You are probably being very generous with your 10:1 ratio.
Posted by Lsut81
Member since Jun 2005
85713 posts
Posted on 4/19/20 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

You are probably being very generous with your 10:1 ratio.



Yeah very... after this week there will be 25m who have applied for unemployment in last 4 weeks. So that’s 1/5 of working population.
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
53552 posts
Posted on 4/19/20 at 2:51 pm to
quote:


Those are extremely rare circumstances.

Very few industries have seen an uptick in demand during all of this.


In my case, I think it’s because we are majority owned by the Japanese. The bulk of “work” has been busy work, working on otherwise back burner projects, etc


But the Japanese tend to take care of their own.

Certainly not seen an uptick of sales/profitable work. Only customers that held steady was McD and Whataburger. Overall we are running at around 15% standard capacity.

Group that got bonuses were geared to retail food packaging.
This post was edited on 4/19/20 at 2:52 pm
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40251 posts
Posted on 4/19/20 at 2:54 pm to
How's the ER business Scruffy? BR in general hospital wise??
Posted by Shaun176
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2008
3161 posts
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:24 pm to
The Italian ministry of health today estimated that 10% of Italians have had covid. That would be 6million. It would also make the total fatality rate .4%.

I think this ends up with a .2% to .4% fatality rate.

If 10% of italians have been infected
Over 70 it is around 1.5%
50-70 it is .7%
30-50 it is .08%
Under 30 it is .007%
This post was edited on 4/19/20 at 4:53 pm
Posted by Lsut81
Member since Jun 2005
85713 posts
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:41 pm to
quote:

I think this ends up with a .2% to .4% fatality rate.


Interested to see final numbers... and all of this is without a vaccine
Posted by TutHillTiger
Mississippi Alabama
Member since Sep 2010
49830 posts
Posted on 4/19/20 at 5:29 pm to
I agree with your assessment of data so for. Today we hit 40k in Covid-19 deaths. With the admitted underreporting due to at home fatalities, lack of testing etc probably more like 45.000 to 50,000. Even assuming that 1% mortality rate is correct that means actually number infected is around 4.5 to 5 million. If that number is lower then the infection rate could be over 10 million. Now the the Chinese have up their % of non-symptomatic Covid-19 from 1% to maybe as high as 60% from wuhan region this makes the higher numbers seem much more likely.

So maybe many of us have already had this.

In sum, so far we know that is was in America much earlier than we realized, (see Stanford study), it’s ridiculous contagious, and many people will have minimal or no symptoms, and that it can be deadly to some sub groups of the population, and is likely to be with us for a year or two. Everything else is informed speculation or guesswork right now.
Posted by TheeRealCarolina
Member since Aug 2018
17925 posts
Posted on 4/19/20 at 5:54 pm to
We’ve been overcounting deaths by at least 25% and the number of cases is at least 5 times what’s reported. Over if half the people who we know have had it have been asymptomatic and 40% more have mild symptoms like a common cold.

This was bullshite from the start.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21139 posts
Posted on 4/19/20 at 7:26 pm to
quote:

This was bullshite from the start.



Just like the moon landing, amirite?
Posted by TheeRealCarolina
Member since Aug 2018
17925 posts
Posted on 4/19/20 at 8:09 pm to
Don’t you have some more chicken littling to do or is this the hour where you pretend to own multiple businesses?
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21139 posts
Posted on 4/19/20 at 8:30 pm to
quote:

Don’t you have some more chicken littling to do


You've got me mixed up. I'm for opening most of the country, and my own state, at the end of the month. I've posted many arguments here that we are defeating the virus and will soon be able to return to much more of a normal life than many experts have predicted. I believe that there's almost no chance of a 2nd wave before the fall.

quote:

you pretend to own multiple businesses


No, I only own one business. It has three locations ... for now. If Congress doesn't soon put more money into the PPP program, or if there's some crazy technicality that prevents me from getting the money, then I may not own much of anything next month.
Posted by heatom2
At the plant, baw.
Member since Nov 2010
13107 posts
Posted on 4/19/20 at 8:36 pm to
quote:

TheeRealCarolina


GOP has been pretty reasonable throughout this whole ordeal. It's amazing how some of you people (yeah I said it) will take anything you don't want to hear and call it fear mongering. Quit being such a backwoods twat and start using your head.


THAT'S THE LUMP THAT'S THREE FEET ABOVE YOUR arse!
Posted by lsu13lsu
Member since Jan 2008
11839 posts
Posted on 4/19/20 at 10:34 pm to
Tests ran at Boston homeless shelter

“ Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.”
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 4/19/20 at 11:16 pm to
quote:

“ Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.”


At that time*

They showed symptoms later on and one was hospitalized.

Still great numbers though.
Posted by Sharp85
Member since Jan 2019
846 posts
Posted on 4/20/20 at 7:00 am to
I have since the beginning have had the belief 10-20 percent of total population has been positive at some point. Looks like it is becoming realistic now. Mortality rate will end up being under 1 percent when all said and done.
Posted by MadDogs
Member since Jul 2018
454 posts
Posted on 4/20/20 at 7:51 am to
There will be many more stories like this. Ohio is testing every inmate in the state prison system. Marion county shot to lead in case count over the weekend as they had 1800 test positive in one prison there. They haven't released any other info other than to say "many" were asymptomatic. There have been zero deaths in that prison so far. 109 prison workers also tested positive.
Columbus Dispatch
This post was edited on 4/20/20 at 7:53 am
Posted by slacker00
Member since Mar 2011
593 posts
Posted on 4/20/20 at 8:18 am to
I'm not sure prison is representative of the numbers outside. This is more like a cruise ship where you expect everyone to get it in a short period of time if there is no way to avoid those infected.
Posted by Lsut81
Member since Jun 2005
85713 posts
Posted on 4/20/20 at 8:21 am to
From the poli board and a notorious tin foil hat wearer, but....

quote:

Dr. John Ioannidis Announces Results of COVID-19 Serology Study 62,758 views 2K 67 Share Save Report Journeyman Pictures 1.42M subscribers SUBSCRIBE Published on Apr 19, 2020 Dr. John Ioannidis announces the results of his serology study in Santa Clara, California. Full Perspectives on the Pandemic interview coming soon! "Our Santa Clara seroprevalence study is now out. It shows 50-85 times underestimated number of infections, therefore 50-85 times overestimated infection rate fatality. True infection rate fatality is in the ballpark of seasonal influenza." To read the study, head here: LINK


Take with a grain of salt, but apparently this guy is with Stanford
This post was edited on 4/20/20 at 8:22 am
Posted by Scruffy
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
77889 posts
Posted on 4/20/20 at 8:22 am to
quote:

I'm not sure prison is representative of the numbers outside
It isn’t, but it does show a very low CFR.

Also, it reiterates a point many have been making that younger populations are largely fine.

The average age of our prison population is the 26-50 year age range, somewhere in there.

The other thing is that I highly doubt that those within the prisons are 1. Healthy and 2. receiving great medical care.

Why isn’t the CFR high?
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