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Posted on 4/15/20 at 11:25 pm to fightin tigers
LINK to decently funny tweet to Snoops- Gin & Juice.
I think it's worth a click. Not sure how they got someone who's voice is soo close to snoops
LINK
I think it's worth a click. Not sure how they got someone who's voice is soo close to snoops
LINK
This post was edited on 4/15/20 at 11:26 pm
Posted on 4/16/20 at 7:12 am to Wishnitwas1998
quote:
If your business were going to go bankrupt bc of the extra time there is no damn way you’d be in here asking for extra time
Humans just don’t operate that way, you have to provide for yourself and presumably a family
So you are either lying about it having a significant effect on your business (businesses do exist that this isn’t hurting) or, less likely, you are lying about having a business at all
No, you should expand your mind a little and consider the other possibility that I was telling the truth about talking to a number of my customers and listening to them tell me that they wouldn't feel safe to come back right now. You should consider the possibility that I was also telling the truth about 10 out of my 25 part-time employees being too scared to work right now, even in a clean office environment where they would only be interacting with customers online and over the phone.
If Gov. Edwards allowed me to open my doors today, I don't know if it would help much at all. We need to lower the virus to levels where people will feel safe.
Just over a week ago, we had several consecutive days with over 1000 new positive cases in Louisiana. The last four days: 581, 421, 502, 433. Louisiana is defeating this virus. By the end of the month, we'll have those numbers well under 100, and state and local officials will be able to do contract tracing for infected cases to keep numbers down there as we reopen. Deaths hit their peak just two days ago. In two weeks, that number will have declined significantly such that people will believe that it's safe again, because it will be.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 7:21 am to rds dc
quote:
More than we know for sure. The question is how many more? The only decent blood work study that I have seen was out of Germany and they focused on one of the hardest hit communities and estimated that 14% had been infected. Then some other researchers took that and extrapolated it to all of Germany and came up with b/w 3 - 5% of Germany having been infected. The IHME model that gets widely mentioned is based on only 3% of the US being infected. Herd Immunity would probably take hold around 65%.
I think that we'll find that the percentage exposed varies a great deal by location. The county in Colorado that includes Telluride has also been trying to do serology antibody tests on the whole county and is now up to 1975 tests run. Even if we count all their "borderline" results as positive, we'd still only come up with 2% exposed. This is a rural county, but Telluride is a tourist town, so there were likely a significant number of positive people there before the ski resorts were shut down.
LINK
This post was edited on 4/16/20 at 7:23 am
Posted on 4/16/20 at 8:12 am to GOP_Tiger
They only had 13 confirmed cases.
40 more were probably infected based on the antibody tests of 1/5 of the population. Applied to the total population that would be 15 unreported cases to each confirmed case.
That is in line with several studies from around the world.
This ratio applied to Louisiana would be around 300000 total infections. Applied to New York would be around 3000000 total infections. And about 10000000 infections in the US.
It would also mean a total fatality rate around .3%
I also think this wave will infect 3-5% of the total population of the us 12 to 18 million. It will be more hot spots. Southeast Louisiana and the NYC area will be at 15-20% infected.
40 more were probably infected based on the antibody tests of 1/5 of the population. Applied to the total population that would be 15 unreported cases to each confirmed case.
That is in line with several studies from around the world.
This ratio applied to Louisiana would be around 300000 total infections. Applied to New York would be around 3000000 total infections. And about 10000000 infections in the US.
It would also mean a total fatality rate around .3%
I also think this wave will infect 3-5% of the total population of the us 12 to 18 million. It will be more hot spots. Southeast Louisiana and the NYC area will be at 15-20% infected.
This post was edited on 4/16/20 at 8:15 am
Posted on 4/16/20 at 8:24 am to Shaun176
But we're assuming that these tests are accurate, and that's a real question with serology tests. If there are any significant number of false positives, then the actual percentage of those with antibodies would be lower.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 8:24 am to fightin tigers
quote:
That is laughable
That works out to around 10 million infected and a CFR of 0.2%
It’s not “laughable”.
It’s very generous.
Sorry if that impedes in your daydream that half the country has already been infected and gotten over it.
This post was edited on 4/16/20 at 10:31 am
Posted on 4/16/20 at 9:45 am to Volvagia
US Military Data - more context.
I had posted the numbers on US military from Worldometer before, found some more information on them.
What's posted on worldometer is the DOD data which includes civilians and dependents. This data is broken down as follows. The Active Duty numbers then fall more in line with expected for a younger and healthier population.
Active Duty -
2,486 cases; 85 hospitalized; 2 deaths
Civilian -
669 cases; 63 hospitalized; 8 deaths
Dependents -
558 cases; 24 hospitalized; 2 deaths
Contractors -
298 cases; 34 hospitalized; 5 deaths
USS Theodore Roosevelt
615 positives with 5 hospitalized, 2 in ICU, 1 death
The death was a 41 year old Chief Petty Officer
Navy Times - CPO Death
I had posted the numbers on US military from Worldometer before, found some more information on them.
What's posted on worldometer is the DOD data which includes civilians and dependents. This data is broken down as follows. The Active Duty numbers then fall more in line with expected for a younger and healthier population.
Active Duty -
2,486 cases; 85 hospitalized; 2 deaths
Civilian -
669 cases; 63 hospitalized; 8 deaths
Dependents -
558 cases; 24 hospitalized; 2 deaths
Contractors -
298 cases; 34 hospitalized; 5 deaths
USS Theodore Roosevelt
615 positives with 5 hospitalized, 2 in ICU, 1 death
The death was a 41 year old Chief Petty Officer
Navy Times - CPO Death
Posted on 4/16/20 at 10:33 am to BRIllini07
I believe that data about as much as I do China’s numbers.
Releasing an accurate extent of severity of impact to armed forces personnel in an official capacity would raise national security concerns and considerations.
Releasing an accurate extent of severity of impact to armed forces personnel in an official capacity would raise national security concerns and considerations.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 10:35 am to Mizzoufan26
OP now updated with timeline of events.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 10:50 am to frankthetank
I believe the military data way more than China. Majority of military would be under 50 and in pretty good shape.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 10:56 am to LSU1018
USA surpasses 5% death rate.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 10:58 am to Volvagia
quote:
I believe that data about as much as I do China’s numbers. Releasing an accurate extent of severity of impact to armed forces personnel in an official capacity would raise national security concerns and considerations
Can only speak for the Navy side.
The only concerning OPSEC thing to me was the Theodore Roosevelt release. Even then, fleet responses (keeping ships at sea, quarantining everyone on base, etc...) would all increase operational readiness - at the expense of fleet morale of course.
Right now, as we speak, some sailor is stuck in his rack spanking it to only imaginary mental images of Australian port visits instead of doing a reminiscing wank of good times had overseas.
You'll (hopefully) never hear if an at sea ballistic missile submarine had to medevac - but that should be in the noise and not a Chinese level cover up.
The military also has the ability to do strictly enforceable quarantines and order entire units to be tested and do contact tracing much more reliably than the civilian population.
For better or worse, we've seen the petri dishes of this virus ending up in the 'wrong' populations (Cruise ships/nursing homes). The military data may provide more context to what happens if the 'right' populations WRT age/general wellness.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 11:03 am to BRIllini07
quote:
Metro Public Health Department officials announced today a total number of 1560 confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Nashville/Davidson County, an increase of 68 in the past 24 hours.
The confirmed cases range in age from 2 months to 94 years.
An additional death was reported in Davidson County, a 70-year-old man with underlying health conditions.
A total of eighteen (18) people have died after a confirmed case of COVID-19. Seventy (70) Davidson County residents who had confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been hospitalized in Davidson County facilities. 677 individuals have recovered from the virus. The large number of newly recovered cases is a result of updated data reporting procedures. The remaining cases are self-isolating at home with mild and manageable symptoms.
The MPHD COVID-19 Hotline received 257 calls on Wednesday, April 15, 2020.
Total number of cases: 1,560
Cases reported in the past 24 hours: 68
Cases by sex
Male: 725
Female: 730
Unknown: 105
Davidson County's numbers are still pretty good. Recoveries almost even with active cases.
This post was edited on 4/16/20 at 11:04 am
Posted on 4/16/20 at 12:35 pm to BRIllini07
quote:
You'll (hopefully) never hear if an at sea ballistic missile submarine had to medevac
Also likely some of those crews have no idea any of this is going on. If they left at the end of January, early February, they would still be on patrol. The captain and some officers are likely aware to some extent but it's doubtful the crew knows. The only news we ever got was "fun" news like sports scores.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 1:45 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Just over a week ago, we had several consecutive days with over 1000 new positive cases in Louisiana. The last four days: 581, 421, 502, 433. Louisiana is defeating this virus. By the end of the month, we'll have those numbers well under 100, and state and local officials will be able to do contract tracing for infected cases to keep numbers down there as we reopen. Deaths hit their peak just two days ago. In two weeks, that number will have declined significantly such that people will believe that it's safe again, because it will be.
I don’t agree with you on everything but I’ll say I thought you wanted to go a couple weeks into May with everything not end the shutdown on May 1st
I’m ok with it going to May 1st, not crazy about it but it may be necessary
I’ll say this, that may be true about your clients and employees but we apparently live in very different areas as in my area nobody gives a shite about and are ready to return to work and semi normal life, rightly or wrongly
This post was edited on 4/16/20 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 4/16/20 at 2:28 pm to Wishnitwas1998
quote:
I’ll say this, that may be true about your clients and employees but we apparently live in very different areas as in my area nobody gives a shite about and are ready to return to work and semi normal life, rightly or wrongly
I'm sure that it's true that people in different areas of the country feel differently about shutdowns. Here in South Louisiana, we've had one of the worst outbreaks in the country.
But I think that there are also like differences by gender and socioeconomic class. My business serves kids from more affluent backgrounds, and those kids' moms are likely more cautious than some other groups of people.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 2:44 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Here in South Louisiana, we've had one of the worst outbreaks in the country.
I think South Louisiana is not specific enough.
This post was edited on 4/16/20 at 2:45 pm
Posted on 4/16/20 at 2:47 pm to lsu13lsu
quote:It isn’t.
I think South Louisiana is not specific enough.
Most of South LA is fine.
Posted on 4/16/20 at 4:54 pm to Scruffy
Ochsner telling employees they have to take 2 days off per pay period. Hospitals are getting so fricked. Have to keep operating. Have to hemorrhage money.
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