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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:00 am to Scruffy
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:00 am to Scruffy
quote:
I do assume that, if we continue down this road for much longer, it will not rebound like many people seem to believe
Rebound is going to be hard to predict, same as the damage due to the lockdown.
Travel was going to hit a downturn regardless of the shutdown - dragging oil with it to a degree. No way the CDC doesn't escalate to level 4 at some point and issue a "do not travel" notice, even if it was a few weeks later than when that notice was issued. This is certainly exacerbated and the cuts made much deeper by the shutdown, though.
On the back end, either with or without the shutdown consumer confidence in travel will take a huge knock that will be hard to recover from in a pre-COVID 19 vaccine world. Cruises in particular will have been dealt a hell of a blow with or without government shutdowns.
Restaurants as an industry aren't at serious risk IMO, the absolute safest time in US history to open a restaurant will be the day after the lockdown ends. You could serve microwaved wet dog food on a plate (with a sprig of parsley) for $33+ tip and your tables will be full for a month as long as you have cold beer on tap and the customers don't have to do the dishes.
I really worry about small retail. These shops I feel are shutdown needlessly, there were never more than a few people in them and I don't see how these were the serious points of spreading this disease. Very low bang for your buck shutting small retail down. These were drifting down anyway due to on-line sales, and now a death blow may have been given to many - as I assume a whole new flock of people learned how easy it is to shop on line in the past month.
1
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:03 am to Scruffy
quote:
Again, it isn’t the big corporate stores that are in trouble.
It's progressing to that level now. Tesla, Honda, Nissan, Redfin, Rover, etc all did massive layoffs and furloughs in the past week. Even Microsoft now has a hiring freeze. Those jobs aren't just all bouncing back immediately.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:04 am to notiger1997
quote:
But you can damn sure bet that they can add a lot of those routes back pretty quickly once demand comes back later this year
No chance air travel is normal this year... and as I understand it, they have to get approval from the Feds months in advance to open or close a route.
So going to be lots of pilots, flight attendants, support staff out of work for a long while.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:06 am to BRIllini07
quote:
I really worry about small retail. These shops I feel are shutdown needlessly, there were never more than a few people in them and I don't see how these were the serious points of spreading this disease. Very low bang for your buck shutting small retail down. These were drifting down anyway due to on-line sales, and now a death blow may have been given to many - as I assume a whole new flock of people learned how easy it is to shop on line in the past month.
My wife's store exactly
Small children's boutique that has been in business for 40+ years.
They have been struggling the past few years, but were beginning to make adjustments and starting to see an uptick in sales.
They have been offering free delivery during all of this and are still doing about $500/day in sales, but that is down from their normal $3k average.
The CARE loans will help, but the future is still very uncertain if they will be able to reopen as they were. The discussion of downsizing is really ramping up.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:07 am to notiger1997
quote:
airlines are cutting routes by 90% through rest of the year...
But you can damn sure bet that they can add a lot of those routes back pretty quickly once demand comes back later this year. It's not like it's set in stone.
Yeah, and when the TSA has a 15-minute test as part of the security process, and no one gets on a plane without a negative result, people will feel safe to fly. This is applicable to a lot of situations.
I think that a lot of our uncertainly depends on how quickly Abbott can ramp up production of its quick testing machines, and/or how quickly others can manufacture similar tests.
If the New Orleans Convention Center could test every member of a big convention as they arrive, wouldn't companies feel safe having conventions there? Etc.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:08 am to Lsut81
quote:
Lots of smaller restaurants won’t reopen, lots of hotels won’t see normal levels for years, and airlines are cutting routes by 90% through rest of the year...
I dunno. The lack of people even being willing to social distance NOW tells me that people will be flocking to vacation destinations en masse at the first chance. And business travel will pick back up because it has to.
Restaurants have options to stay in business right now. None of them HAVE to be closed. Not having a contingency in-place to facilitate take out/curbside service may well kill many, but in this day and age, that’s poor planning.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:11 am to tiger91
quote:
Then there is the poor gentleman who has been swabbed from what I can tell 3 times -- they keep "losing" his swab somewhere between the lab picking it up and the lab OR somewhere in the lab. WTH?? I wouldn't be happy to have that done 3 times.
I would hope that they are treating him as though he is positive, regardless. If you’ve got one positive, you’ve got many in that environment. Unlikely that it’s coincidental and waiting on test results is killing people.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:15 am to S1C EM
quote:
Restaurants have options to stay in business right now. None of them HAVE to be closed. Not having a contingency in-place to facilitate take out/curbside service may well kill many, but in this day and age, that’s poor planning.
most of the restaurants that are closing right now, are closing simply due to inventory issues or they are doing it so their employees can get unemployment
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:15 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Yeah, and when the TSA has a 15-minute test as part of the security process, and no one gets on a plane without a negative result, people will feel safe to fly. This is applicable to a lot of situations.
That isn’t happening now and won’t happen.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:17 am to S1C EM
quote:
And business travel will pick back up because it has to.
Not necessarily... now that all have worked remotely, I’d imagine a number of organizations decide to save money and go this route.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:19 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Yeah, and when the TSA has a 15-minute test as part of the security process, and no one gets on a plane without a negative result, people will feel safe to fly. This is applicable to a lot of situations.
LOfrickingL
That is never happening. You will never be pre screened for virus prior to getting on a plane outside of the normal temp sensors a ton of Asian airports have.
The TSA misses contraband 90% of the time, you expect them to do testing?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:20 am to S1C EM
quote:
business travel will pick back up because it has to.
I don’t see business travel ever getting back to pre-covid levels. Companies are about to get real use to not paying for Bob’s trip to the St. Louis’ twin peaks
quote:
The lack of people even being willing to social distance NOW tells me that people will be flocking to vacation destinations en masse at the first chance.
I am curious to know how much residual fear of gatherings this will have.
I don’t see a switch being flipped both economically and in our behaviors.
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 9:21 am
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:21 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Yeah, and when the TSA has a 15-minute test as part of the security process, and no one gets on a plane without a negative result, people will feel safe to fly. This is applicable to a lot of situations. I think that a lot of our uncertainly depends on how quickly Abbott can ramp up production of its quick testing machines, and/or how quickly others can manufacture similar tests. If the New Orleans Convention Center could test every member of a big convention as they arrive, wouldn't companies feel safe having conventions there? Etc
Those forehead temperature IR guns you see in Asia are more likely than someone willing to get their sinuses jabbed to get on a plane or into a convention center.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:23 am to Lsut81
quote:
Not necessarily... now that all have worked remotely, I’d imagine a number of organizations decide to save money and go this route.
Perhaps, but I’d wager that most businesses (or bosses?) still don’t “like” the work-from-home model. I know I can do a lot from home, but certainly lose a great deal of capacity. I can’t fill eight hours a day right now from home. I can’t be the only one.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:24 am to Salmon
quote:email me the link and I will buy a ton of shite
My wife's store exactly
Small children's boutique that has been in business for 40+ years
Have two kids and a bunch of nieces and nephews. We have been buying stuff from all local kids stores to help.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:26 am to S1C EM
quote:
I would hope that they are treating him as though he is positive, regardless. If you’ve got one positive, you’ve got many in that environment. Unlikely that it’s coincidental and waiting on test results is killing people.
Oh they are ... his normal room is on the hall that they changed to an isolation hall but he is there. If he tests negative and doesn't need any precautions, they'll (I assume) move him to a different hall.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:26 am to Dire Wolf
quote:
I am curious to know how much residual fear of gatherings this will have.
I don’t see a switch being flipped both economically and in our behaviors.
Not sure. But you had people still having to be forcibly removed from beaches just days ago.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:28 am to lsupride87
quote:
email me the link and I will buy a ton of shite
Have two kids and a bunch of nieces and nephews. We have been buying stuff from all local kids stores to help.
I really think if they could market their online business more, you would see a difference. Do they sell on Amazon’s platform?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:28 am to S1C EM
quote:
Perhaps, but I’d wager that most businesses (or bosses?) still don’t “like” the work-from-home model
I hate it and for my team to be doing it... ready to get the. Back out on the road.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:32 am to Lsut81
quote:
I hate it and for my team to be doing it... ready to get the. Back out on the road.
And I think you and I both know that you aren’t the only one. In the same sense that the virus is not total doom to our society, this shutdown will not be such for our economy, either. None of us knows for sure how this will go. I have hope, though. And I hope many business are looking for and finding new ways to survive because they’re out there. People have to think outside the box and come up with contingency plans and right now is a prime example of why.
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