re: Can one of the OT Weather Experts assist in regards to Saturday in Baton Rouge

Storm Prediction Center has us in a 15% severe box for Saturday, which suggests we probably are looking at a severe weather threat on top of the rain.

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he next system to bring impacts to the CWA will take place the first half of this weekend. An upper level trough will enter the Pacific northwest Thursday...amplifying as it tracks across the mid section of the country Friday night through Saturday. A wide swath of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front associated with this trough. We will again be looking at another severe weather potential with this one but with the additional threat of heavy rainfall. The average qpf totals of the GFS and ECMWF are in the 2 to 4 inch range. Moderately paced cold fronts aren`t typically known to be big flash flood producing systems. Don`t think this one will be much different but with model soundings indicating precip water values around the average max for this time of year (~1.8"), very heavy rain will likely fall at times throughout the CWA. Models show the upper trough will be transitioning from positive to neutrally tilted as it approaches the Mississippi River. In addition, model soundings show the pre-storm environment to have steep lapse rates throughout the column. This will lead to quite high CAPE values (nearing 2000 j/kg). Shear won`t be particularly high but high cape/low shear environments commonly produce tornadoes in SELA and southern MS. Wet bulb temps of around 12kft are a little to high for hail to be of much concern. Damaging winds though will still be a threat. One note about the model soundings, there looks to be a warm nose at ~850mb Friday night. Cooler air moving in will erode this, leading to virtually no CIN. It will however, keep pre-system activity limited to very light showers if anything at all. In terms of timing, thinking really hasn`t changed much. A blend of the GFS and ECMWF is a good estimate at this time. Those models will likely come back in line with each other on Thursday as the trough enters the PAC-NW and is sampled by radiosondes.

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LINK

So it's going to rain during the day Saturday, associated with a cold front moving in. Severe threat also coming with it.

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and out of all the days this week and next, Saturday is supposed to get heavy downpours and 90% chance of rain

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I feel your pain. Drove to Pensacola last weekend for my daughter's soccer tournament, got absolutely dumped on Saturday and the temps dropped down to the upper 40's for Sunday. Now we have perfect weather until Saturday, when I'm supposed to be at Zapps and she has another tournament in Alexandria. It's the only damn day that rain can affect our plans, and of course that's the day it decides to storm

Just tell them to put their flashers on and go 40 in the left lane once it starts raining

You're best bet is PEEJ for advice. If he says a slight chance of afternoon rain spritzer start preparing for a flood.

It's definitely going to rain in the area, and there might be severe weather, on Saturday. It's definitely going to a really nice day on Sunday.

This is a cold front. They get these things right all the time. You should reschedule.

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They have moved it into the River Center for bad weather in the past.

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I work in a building with people who plan a lot of these events and I noticed on the copier the other day some kind of agenda that said "NO RELOCATION OF THE FESTIVAL" at the top. Looked like a meeting agenda.

I was hoping it wasn't for Blues Fest, as I'd really like to go.

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Will Beerfest be under a tent for the weather?

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No, Beerfest will be even more miserable than it usually is. You're going to trade bad overcrowding for a mud bog.

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We’re going for the first time (so I’m no expert). I called today, and the people at Rural Life said it will be under multiple tents outdoors and to wear rain boots.

Is it really miserable? Worth springing for the early entry/VIP? At $100 vs. $35, it seems like a huge hike for one early hour.

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The people serving beer are under tents. You will not be, and it's on ground, not a paved area. The way it's set up is with the tents on either side of a main walkway to guide people along. When it rains, all those people walking in the same spot makes it a muddy slick mess.

The reason for the huge hike is that once the gates open to the masses that didn't pay for early access, everything that was special or neat gets wiped out instantly and the only thing left is MilCoorsWeiser and shite like limearita.